January 20, 2023 4:59pm

It’s a merry-go-round ride, what goes down for three (3) down sessions – goes up post three (3) up sessions and a holiday

Pre-Open Indication: 5 Hits and 1 Miss

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The week in review, TGIF

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +330.93 points (+1%), the S&P closed UP +73.76 points (+1.89%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +288.17 points (+2.66%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes rallied on Friday to finish the week strong after briefly losing the momentum of the January rally. 

For the week, the Dow is down -2.07%, the S&P 500 is down -0.66% while the Nasdaq was up +0.55%.

All of the major averages are still in positive territory for 22023 to date

Economic Data Docket: Sales of previously owned homes fell for the 11th consecutive month in December, according to the National Association of Realtors. Existing homes fell to an annualized pace of 4.02 million units in December, down 1.5% month over month and 34% year over year.

 

Friday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “fear, the under-rated indicator or metric. This is why the market/sector is struggling for direction.” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12794

 

Pre-Open Indications: 5 hits <Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.13), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.94), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.55), Verve Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.75), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.77)> and 1 Miss <BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.57)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 21 up/ 12 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 21 up/ 13 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat.
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 27 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9/23 and 3 flats.
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 29 up/ 5 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 10 up/ 24 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8/27 and 0 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 21 up/ 13 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 14 up/ 19 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 14/20 and 1 flat
  • Monday was a market holiday

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +1.06% and the XBI was up +2.47%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.89% and the XBI was down -1.04%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.75% and the XBI was down -1.14%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.05% and the XBI was down -1.16%
  • Monday was a holiday

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.72 points or -3.51% at 19.80
  • Thursday was up +0.02 points or +0.10% at 20.36
  • Wednesday was up +0.90 points or +4.65% at 20.26
  • Tuesday was down -0.13 points or -0.67% at 19.36
  • Monday was a holiday

 

Closing Down (6 of 6):

  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.30),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.18),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.07),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.05 after Thursday’s -$0.46 and Wednesday’s -$0.79),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.04),
  • Avrobio (AVRO -$0.0201 after Thursday’s +$0.04),

Flat (1):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG),

Closing Up (10 of 28):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.13 after Thursday’s -$2.10, Wednesday’s +$0.06, Tuesday’s +$1.21 and Monday’s holiday),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.94 after Thursday’s -$2.88, Wednesday’s -$1.22 and Tuesday’s +$1.83),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.09 after Thursday’s -$3.25, Wednesday’s -$1.92, Tuesday’s -$1.80 and Monday’s holiday),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.90 after Thursday’s -$1.12, Wednesday’s +$0.12 and Tuesday’s -$1.05),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (+$0.79),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.77 after Thursday’s -$1.31, Wednesday’s -$1.13, Tuesday’s +$0.32 and Monday’s holiday),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.64 after Thursday’s -$0.87),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.57),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.57 after Thursday’s -$0.60),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.55 after Thursday’s -$2.78, Wednesday’s -$0.97, Tuesday’s -$0.59 and Monday’s holiday),

 

Q1/23 – January

  • Friday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
  • Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliner, 27 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday was a market holiday

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Investors are starting to look at the cell/gene therapy sector that's absolutely beaten down as fundamentals remain … directionless.

Today’s action was in the cards after the sector had three down sessions following an oversold position; the algorithms and electronic trading are just bundling up today.

Still, concerns about upcoming Q4 earnings remain as the U.S. economy shows signs of a slowdown and recession worries increase.

 

There are VERY clear losers today … Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Fate Therapeutics (FATE) and Agenus (AGEN)

And winners … Beam therapeutics (BEAM), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)

 

Avrobio (AVRO closed down -$0.001 with 234,968 shares traded after Thursday’s +$0.04 with 303,682 share traded, Wednesday’s -$0.0402 with 212,461 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.0098 to $0.89 with 273,903 shares traded, Monday’s holiday and last Friday’s +$0.0251 to $0.92 with 139,678 shares traded. <3-month average = 341,560 shares>

The many sessions since acknowledging the de-listing “issue” say a lot of addressing the NASDAQ issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while de-listing continues?

Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>

Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!

·         While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed flat again with 30 shares traded after Thursday’s $0.00 with 32 shares traded after Wednesday’s -$0.07 with 421 shares traded, Tuesday’s up +$0.60 with 3,047 shares traded, Monday’s holiday and Friday’s flat with 0 shares traded and last Thursday’s +$0.08 with 671 shares traded <3-month average volume =1,360 shares>

·         Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following USA rules!!

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!!

·         They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals are in charge!

·         Question; is this a Ponzi scheme as shares are bought to replace those sold??

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.