January 24, 2023 7:54am
A glass half full or a value trap
Pre-open Indications: 6 Sell into Strength and 1 Positive Indication
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth! Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
The 8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session.
Dow futures are DOWN -0.34% or (-115 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.32% or (-13 point) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.47% or (-55 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures dipped Tuesday,
European markets were mixed,
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher as Lunar New Year holidays were observed in most of the region.
We need to understand the macro to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
The moves in futures comes after a solid start to the week on Wall Street. On Monday, the Nasdaq led with a gain of 2.01%. The S&P 500 popped +1.19% and Dow gained 0.76%. It was the second straight positive day for the major averages, and all three are up in 2023.
Economic Data Docket: preliminary January PMI for manufacturing and services from researcher Markit
Monday’s (1/23) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector nudges higher. There were a number of cell/gene therapy companies “popping” in today’s session – I’d be waiting UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – it’s coming to BUY and STAY invested, NOW take profits when can; algorithms are driving shares pricing.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12797
Ebb and flow:
Q1/23 – 2 holiday, 8 positive and 6 negative closes
· December – 1 holiday, 13 negative and 8 positive closes
· November -1 holiday, 14 negative and 8 positive closes
· October -1 neutral, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
SELL into Strength:
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.15 to $44.39 after Friday’s +$2.13, Thursday’s -$2.10, Wednesday’s +$0.06 and last Tuesday’s +$1.21 with a negative -1.09 or -2.46% pre-open,
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$0.15 to $25.18 after Friday’s +$0.57 and Thursday’s -$0.11 with a negative -$0.68 or -2.70% aftermarket indication,
Verve Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$1.01 to $22.60 after Friday’s -$0.77 and Thursday’s -$1.31 with a negative -$0.45 or -1.999% aftermarket indication,
Cellectis SA (CLLS) closed up +$0.32 to $3.38 with a negative -$0.13 or -3.55$ after taking on a debt deal,
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$1.71 to $51.32 and Thursday’s -$2.88 after Wednesday’s -$1.22 and last Tuesday’s +$1.83 with a negative -$0.33 or -0.64% pre-open indication.
Ultragenyx (RARE) closed up +$0.41 to $42.81 after Friday’s +$0.90, Thursday’s -$1.12, Wednesday’s +$0.12 and last Tuesday’s -$1.05 with a negative -$0.86 or -2.01% aftermarket indication,
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$1.34 to $39.42 after Friday’s +$0.18 with a positive +$0.58 or +1.47% aftermarket indication,
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple and short!
What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain.
The cell/gene therapy sector’s investors need to understand the … cycle of distress will be with us until we see a better showing of platforms not, just me-too drugs of what I define as multiple companies chasing the same indication.
A couple of companies have become … black holes … of investor sentiment.
I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product.
And I can always be WRONG but, mostly EARLY!
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday …
Reiterating, “As 2023 trading begins, some investors think the pain is far from over; I agree for Q1 as Q4 earnings releases could hinder share pricing however, once through that “gauntlet” – we could see a bit of a smoother road in Q2/2023 hoping for a few clinical results and successful financings – well needed for more than usual companies.”
“Don't act like the market is in an uptrend until the market is actually in an uptrend”.
Insight is about understanding perception and also about putting into context what is relevant to expectation fulfillment,
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.