January 25, 2023 8:06pm
Sooner not later, it will be time to dive into sector equity purchases; in my case, getting it right is more often than most, why I shy away from IB/analyst price targets – so listen or read up!
News: Precigen (PGEN -$0.54 to $1.65) traded 14.885 M shares in an offering priced at $1.75 (an aftermarket indication of +$0.05 or +3.033%)
Pre-Open Indication: 10 Hits and 1 Miss <by -$0.02)
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed up +9.88 points (+0.03%), the S&P closed DOWN -0.73 points (-0.02%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -20.91 points (-0.18%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the recessionary environment - rising rates and high inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes closed mixed as only the Dow closed positive; having started off poorly but once again improved to close little changed, near the best levels of the day.
Stocks pared their losses during afternoon trading, with the Dow bouncing back from a more than 460-point tumble. At its lows, the Nasdaq had shed 2.34%. <CNBC>
As of Wednesday’s close, all three (3) major averages are higher for the week, with the Nasdaq up 1.55%. The S&P and Dow have each gained 1.1%.
Wednesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “share pricing is all over the map as some gains reverse. While the window opens to public offerings.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12802
Pre-Open Indications: 10 hits <Sell into Strength: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.21), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.26), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +0.49), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.07), Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.09); Positive Indication: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.32); Negative Indications: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.11), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.85), Precigen (PGEN -$0.54), Verve Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.49)> and 1 Miss <Verastem Oncology (VSTM +$0.02)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – quite a difference
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 30 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 4 up/ 29 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12/20 and 3 flats.
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.01% and the XBI was up +0.09%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -0.12 points or -0.63% at 19.08
Closing Down (10 of 20):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.64 and Monday’s +$1.71)
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.85 after Tuesday’s -$0.18 and Monday’s +$0.73),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.74 after Tuesday’s -$0.36),
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.54),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.53 after Tuesday’s +$2.38),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.51 after Tuesday’s -$0.12 and Monday’s +$0.45),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.49 after Tuesday’s -$0.11 and Monday’s +$1.01),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.45 after Tuesday’s +$0.87 and Monday’s -$0.33),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.39 after Tuesday’s +$0.32),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.32 after Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$1.34),
Flat (3):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG),
- Compass Therapeutics (BCLI),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
Closing Up (12 of 12):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.91 after Tuesday’s -$2.48 and Monday’s +$0.94),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.49 after Tuesday’s +$2.65 and Monday’s +$2.03),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.26 after Tuesday’s +$0.65),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.13 after Tuesday’s -$0.58 and Monday’s -$0.19),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.07),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.07 after Tuesday’s +$0.41 and Monday’s -$0.77),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.05 after Tuesday’s -$0.06),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.04),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.03),
- Verastem (VSTM +$0.02),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.02),
Q1/23 – January
- Wednesday closed negative with 20 incliner, 12 decliners and 3 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Just because one indexes ascended and two (2) dived on Wednesday doesn't mean they'll continue to do so.
A few weeks from now – after Q4 “umbers” are reported, it may look obvious that investors ramped-up exposure after … as I believe head to exits.
So be cautious about adding exposure and stick to loss-cutting rules.
The cell/gene therapy sector churns in a bounce … one (1) negative close post three (3) positive closes following three (3) negative closes.
What’s the bet on which side Wednesday will close? … A NEGATIVE sector close of my 35 covered companies – I won.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
It’s just like counting the cards – something I WAS good at.
Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.
Investors are awaiting January manufacturing and Q4 GDP data during the week!
There are VERY clear losers today … CRISPR Therapeutics (EDIT), BioLife Solutions (BLFS), and Vericel (VCEL)
With winners … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Editas Medicine (EDIT)
Avrobio (AVRO closed down -$0.0438 with 231,320 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.01 to $0.91 with 233,056 shares traded, Monday’s +$0.03 with 168,831 shares traded, Friday’s -$0.001 with 234,968 shares traded, and last Thursday’s +$0.04 with 303,682 share traded following the previous Wednesday’s -$0.0402 with 212,461 shares traded. <3-month average = 339,347 shares>
The many sessions since acknowledging the de-listing “issue” say a lot of addressing the NASDAQ issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while de-listing continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) closed flat with 2,054 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.09 with 2,275 shares traded after Monday’s +$0.03 with 713 shares traded (having been down most of the session), Friday’s flat with 30 shares traded, Thursday’s $0.00 with 32 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.07 with 421 shares traded and last Tuesday’s up +$0.60 with 3,047 shares traded <3-month average volume = 2,052 shares>
· Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following SEC rules?
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!
· They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals from the past problems are STILL in charge!
· Question; is this a Ponzi scheme as shares are bought to replace those sold??
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
