January 31, 2023 5:21pm
Last trading session of January raises question of February’s pricing future?
As I have stated, “What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain followed by the opposite effect”.
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 1 Miss
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +368.95 points (+1.09%), the S&P closed UP +58.83 points (+1.46%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +190.47 points (+1.67%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes rose Tuesday to end the month …
The S&P 500 is up +6.2% and the Dow 2.8% in January while the Nasdaq rose +10.7% this month.
Wage growth data indicated that the Fed's aggressive approach to taming inflation was taking hold ahead of a decision by the central bank, while gains on the Dow were limited by weak earnings updates.
Economic Data Docket: A survey of U.S. consumer confidence slipped in January, reflecting growing worries about a recession as rising interest rates and high inflation degrade the economy.
- U.S. labor costs increased at their slowest pace in a year in Q4 as wage growth slowed, bolstering expectations of the Fed slowing the pace of its interest rate increases.
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits < Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.63), Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.35), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.61)> and 1 Miss < BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.35)>
Tuesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “following the Fed as sector share pricing bounces” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12810
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened –
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 30 up/ 5 down and 0 flats, stayed positive with 31 up/ 2 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 30/5 and 0 flat
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 1 up/ 29 down and 5 flats, stayed negative with 5 up/ 29 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/31 and 0 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +1.30% and the XBI was up +2.07%
- Monday, the IBB was down -1.77% and the XBI was down -2.56%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -0.54 points or -271% at 19.40.
- Monday was up +1.43 points or +7.73% at 19.94
Closing Down (5 of 5):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.73 after Monday’s -$0.03),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.26),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.0424,
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.03),
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.01),
Closing Up (10 of 30):
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$2.34 after Monday’s -$0.74),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$2.32 after Monday’s -$1.51),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.35 after Monday’s -$3.20),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.19),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.06 after Monday’s -$2.82),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.00 after Monday’s -$5.97),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.98 after Monday’s -$0.65),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.76 after Monday’s -$0.68),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.63 after Monday’s -$0.78),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.61 after Monday’s -$0.60),
Q1/23 – January
Tuesday closed positive with 30 incliner, 5 decliners and 0 flat
Monday closed negative with 4 incliner, 31 decliners and 0 flat
Friday closed positive with 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
Thursday closed negative with 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 1 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 20 incliner, 12 decliners and 3 flats
Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliner, 13 decliners and 0 flats
Monday closed positive with 24 incliner, 9 decliners and 2 flats
Friday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
Thursday closed negative with 9 incliner, 23 decliners and 3 flats
Wednesday closed negative with 8 incliner, 27 decliners and 0 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
Monday was a market holiday
Friday closed positive with 19 incliner, 14 decliners and 2 flats
Thursday closed positive with 30 incliner, 5 decliners and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 22 incliner, 12 decliners and 1 flat
Tuesday closed positive with 28 incliner, 6 decliners and 1 flat
Monday closed negative with 13 incliner, 22 decliners and 0 flat
Friday closed positive with 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 2 flats
Thursday closed negative with 17 incliner, 16 decliners and 2 flats
Wednesday closed positive with 27 incliner, 7 decliners and 1 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 15 incliner, 18 decliners and 2 flats
Monday – a market holiday
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
A January month riding the share pricing merry-go-round.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
It’s just like counting the cards – something I WAS good at.
Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.
Investors are awaiting January manufacturing and Q4 GDP data during the week!
There are VERY clear losers today … Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG), AxoGen (AXGN) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
With winners … Ultragenyx (RARE), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
Avrobio (AVRO closed up – big thrill +$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.01 with 206,848 shares traded after Friday’s +$0.02 to $0.88 with 144,019 shares traded, Thursday’s -$0.0206 with 511,978 shares traded, Wednesday’s -$0.0438 with 231,320 shares traded, Tuesday’s +$0.01 to $0.91 with 233,056 shares traded and last Monday’s +$0.03 with 168,831 shares traded. <3-month average = 337,893 shares>
The many sessions since acknowledging the de-listing “issue” say a lot of addressing the NASDAQ issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while de-listing continues?
Just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>
Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html
· Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!
· While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
Tuesday closed down -$0.73 with 3,710 shares traded after Monday closed down -$0.03 with772 shares traded after Friday’s flat with 1,695 shares traded after Thursday’s $0.00 with 2,300 shares traded after Wednesday’s $0.00 with 2,100 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.09 with 2,400 shares traded after Monday’s +$0.03 with 700 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,304 shares>
· Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following SEC rules?
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!
· They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals from the past problems are STILL in charge!
· Question; is this a Ponzi scheme as shares are bought to replace those sold??
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
