February 1, 2023 5:05pm

As sector gets hammered, then snapping back positive having gotten ahead of itself

News: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.16) announced that GSK has initiated two randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled P3 studies evaluating the safety and efficacy of bepirovirsen (formerly IONIS-HBVRx), an investigational antisense medicine for the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis B infection (CHB). IONS earned a $15 million milestone payment from GSK associated with the progression of bepirovirsen into the P3 clinical studies.

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 2 Miss

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +6.92 points (+0.02%), the S&P closed UP +42.61 points (+1.05%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +231.77 points (+2%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes slipped and ascended after the policy decision Wednesday … as market forces shook off a quarter-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve and instead focused on comments from Fed Chai Powell that … acknowledged falling inflation.

“Some indicators that inflation is easing in the broader economy have investors hoping for a more dovish tone from the Fed. On Tuesday, the employment cost index, a measure of wage increases, showed compensation rose 1% in the fourth quarter, less than the 1.1% estimate by Dow Jones.” <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: 25-basis points expecting “ongoing increases” (March).  The hike brings the Fed’s target range to 4.5%-4.75%, the highest level since 2007.

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits < Mesoblast (MESO +$0.30), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.75)> and 2 Miss < AxoGen (AXGN-$0.23), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.31)>

 

Wednesday’s … RegMed Investor’s (RMi) Pre-Open: “the Fed will set the tone but, not the markets lyrics. Will the cell/gene therapy sector be dependent or independent of market forces?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12812

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened –

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 13 up/ 21 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 24 up/ 10 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 24/10 and 1 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.12% and the XBI was up +0.94%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -1.52 points or -7.84% at 17.88

 

Closing Down (10 of 10):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.49 after Tuesday’s +$1.00 and Monday’s -$5.97),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.68 after Tuesday’s +$0.98 after Monday’s -$0.65),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.20),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.18 after Tuesday’s -$0.26),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.09 after Tuesday’s +$2.34 and Monday’s -$0.74),
  • Voyager therapeutics (VYGR -$0.08),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.04),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.02),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.01),
  • Verastem (VSTM-$0.0026),

Flat (1):

  • MiMedx (MDXG)

Closing Up (10 of 24):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$2.32 after Tuesday’s +$1.35 and Monday’s -$3.20),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.31 after Tuesday’s +$1.06 and Monday’s -$2.82),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.90),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.71 after Tuesday’s +$2.32 and Monday’s -$1.51),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.52),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.41),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.39 after Tuesday’s +$0.61 and Monday’s -$0.60),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.32 after Tuesday’s +$1.19),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.29 after Tuesday’s -$0.01),
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.28 after Tuesday’s -$0.73 and Monday’s -$0.03),

 

Q1/23 – February

  • Wednesday (2/1) closed positive with 24 incliner, 10 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Sector equities were choppy before <AKA in-the-toilet) the Fed announcement but rebounded to turn positive after Fed Chair Powell spoke.

Then, the sector FLIPPED to the positive once the Fed Chair cleared the unknown to a 25-basis rate hike.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

It’s just like counting the cards – something I WAS good at.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

 

There are VERY clear losers today … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY)

With winners … Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) – again, CRISPR Therapeutics CRSP) and Vericel (VCEL)

 

Avrobio (AVRO) closed up again +$0.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.01 with 206,848 shares traded, Friday’s +$0.02 to $0.88 with 144,019 shares traded, Thursday’s -$0.0206 with 511,978 shares traded and last Wednesday’s -$0.0438 with 231,320 shares traded, <3-month average = 341,471 shares>

The many sessions since acknowledging the de-listing “issue” say a lot of addressing the NASDAQ issue <is their investment bank buying the shares?> as AVRO filed a S-3 for $250 million common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, warrants and unit offering within draft prospectus by Cowen as stock sinks while de-listing continues?

STILL, just another “screw-job” of investors! < Read, SELL and Weep - see hyperlink below>

Avrobio (AVRO) files S-3 (Registration Statement) for offering with draft prospectus by Cowen … https://investors.avrobio.com/node/9116/html

·         Also, RA Capital has sold its position in the company – a sign of dissatisfaction!

·         While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)

Tuesday closed up +$0.28 with 467 shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.73 with 3,710 shares traded after Monday closed down -$0.03 with772 shares traded, Friday’s flat with 1,695 shares traded after Thursday’s $0.00 with 2,300 shares traded and last Wednesday’s $0.00 with 2,100 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,255 shares>

·         Review the trading pricing and volume versus the pump/promote agenda – somethings “wrong in Denmark” that’s Beijing, China for you – not following SEC rules?

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!

·         They hired a CRO; hope they PAY them after all the difficulties the previous CRO went through and the same individuals from the past problems are STILL in charge!

Question; is this a Ponzi scheme as shares are bought to replace those sold??

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.