February 9, 2023 4:36pm
As I stated this a.m., “any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring”
Pre-open indications: 5 Misses, yet even my indications were upset
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -248.71 points (-0.73%); the S&P closed DOWN -36.33 points (-0.88%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -120.94 points (-1.02%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes dropped like a boulder in water on Thursday, giving up gains as concerns over the Fed future moves on monetary policy offset excitement around the latest batch of corporate earnings and terminations by tech corporations.
The three (3) indexes notched session lows in the final hour of trading:
· After the Dow dropped -1%, the S&P -0.09% and the Nasdaq -1.4%
· Traders believe that the Fed will have to do a lot more tightening than what is being pricing in.
Economic Data Docket: The number of weekly jobless claims reported Thursday jumped 13,000 to 196,000, more than expected, and suggesting a possible cooling in the red-hot labor market.
Thursday’s … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: go with the flow i.e., momentum. Deal … the oversold; those who went down will float up triggering a slew of upside opportunities.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12825
Pre-open indications: 0 Hits and 5 Miss <Avrobio (AVRO +$0.03), Agenus (AGEN -$0.065), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.55), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.39), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.73)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 7 down and 3 flats, flipped negative with 8 up/ 25 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 3/31 and 1 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was down -0.70% and the XBI was down -1.26%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked: illuminating the changes
- Thursday was up +1 points or +5.09% at 20.63
- Wednesday was up +0.99. points or +5.31% at 19.65
- Tuesday was down -0.76 points or -3.91% at 18.67
- Monday was up +1.10 points or +6% at 19.43
Closing Down (10 of 31):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$2.31 after Wednesday’s -$2.28, Tuesday’s +$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.24),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.17 after Wednesday’s -$3.20, Tuesday’s -$3.30 and Monday’s -$9.23),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$2.01 after Wednesday’s -$1.71, Tuesday’s +$1.06 and Monday’s +$0.62),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.67 after Wednesday’s +$0.42 and Tuesday’s -$1.52),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.50 after Wednesday’s -$3.62, Tuesday’s -$0.38 after Monday’s -$0.34),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.27),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.97 after Wednesday’s -$1.83, Tuesday’s +$0.70 and Monday’s -$0.46),
- Verve therapeutics (VERV -$0.72 after Wednesday’s -$1.56),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.36),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.31),
FLAT:
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG),
Closing Up (3 of 3):
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.46),
- Avrobio (AVRO +$0.13),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.04 after Wednesday’s -$1.65, Tuesday’s +$0.44 and Monday’s -$0.42),
Q1/23 – February
- Thursday closed negative with 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Sector sentiment was governed by electronic trading and algorithms.
From the a.m. post, “The market and sector “gyrate” as algorithms and electronic trading satisfies the lust for returns in quant and hedge funds.
I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring – it was TRUE today.
Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.
· Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) 2/16 – Thursday
· Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) 2/16 - Thursday
· Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 2/22 – Wednesday
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 2/23 – Thursday
· Vericel (VCEL) 2/23 - Thursday
If you thought of buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship.
Attention remains… laser-focused on week’s busy economic calendar; there’s still a bit of hesitation in front of inflation data to really see the reality of the markets and cell and gene therapy sector ability or capacity to move upward.
There are clear losers today … CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2x again and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
With winners … Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI), Avrobio (AVRO) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)
Avrobio (AVRO) closed down -$0.13 after Wednesday’s +$0.81 with 39.32 M shares traded after Tuesday’s -$0.06 … Has AVRO executed offering with our shareholder notification?
STILL, just another “screw-job” of investors! While, President, CEO and director Geoff Mackay carries home a HUGE salary of $754.39 K per year?
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
Tuesday closed flat after Wednesday's down -$0.01 with 148 shares traded on Wednesday after Tuesday’s flat on Monday and Friday with 90 shares traded after Thursday’s flat with 0 shares traded, Wednesday’s +$0.28 with 467 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.73 with 3,710 shares traded after Monday closed down -$0.03 with772 shares traded and last Friday’s flat with 1,695 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,285 shares>
· BSTG has “pulled” its proposed offering … “Withdrawal of Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-265741)”
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!
Question; is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (the pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
