February 10, 2023 5:18pm
As the cell/gene therapy universe fell into the sea of the sentiment pressures
Pre-open indications 4 Hits and 0 Misses <redeemed my indications after yesterday>
The Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) Chronicles: the pump (volume) promote (the share price) is NOT WORKING as Friday closed down -$0.20 with 3,961 shares traded after Thursday’s flat with 0 shares traded, Wednesday -$0.01 with 100 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.01with 2,300 shares traded after Monday flat with 0 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,236 shares> Question – is this a PONZI scheme – it is a Chinese majority owned and run company?
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The week in review – TGIF …
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed up +169.39 points (+0.50%); the S&P closed UP +8.97 points (+0.22%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -71.46 points (-0.61%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes were mixed end of a losing week.
Equity markets fell on Friday as the impact of rising interest rates on the economy unsettled investors amid a growing chorus of central bank officials insisting monetary policy needs to remain tight for some time. <Reuters>
Looking ahead to Tuesday of next week, investors are already readying for the latest consumer price index reading to see if inflation once again cooled.
Friday’s … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: uncertainty, sector share pricing is stuck until it isn’t. Thursday the sector reversed having gotten shook down by the algos and electronic trading.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12827
Pre-open indications: 4 Hits <Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.21), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.05), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.30), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.13)> and 0 Miss
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – inflation has infected share pricing
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 26 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 7 up/ 27 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 11/24 and 0 flat
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 7 down and 3 flats, stayed positive with 8 up/ 25 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 3/31 and 1 flat
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/31 and 0 flat
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 23 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 14 up/ 21 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23/12 and 0 flat
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened neutral at 17 up/ 17 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 1 up/ 25 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 11/23 and 1 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators: oscillating to the downside
- Friday, the IBB was down -0.03% and the XBI was down -0.56%
- Thursday, the IBB was down -0.70% and the XBI was down -1.26%
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -2.19% and the XBI was down -3.47%
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.60% and the XBI was up +0.69%
- Monday, the IBB was down -0.72% and the XBI was down -0.76%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked: illuminating the changes
- Friday was down -0.16 points or -0.77% at 20.55
- Thursday was up +1 points or +5.09% at 20.63
- Wednesday was up +0.99. points or +5.31% at 19.65
- Tuesday was down -0.76 points or -3.91% at 18.67
- Monday was up +1.10 points or +6% at 19.43
Closing Down (10 of 24):
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.37),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.30 after Thursday’s -$2.31, Wednesday’s -$2.28, Tuesday’s +$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.24),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.13 after Thursday’s -$2.01, Wednesday’s -$1.71, Tuesday’s +$1.06 and Monday’s +$0.62),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.97 after Thursday’s -$1.50, Wednesday’s -$3.62, Tuesday’s -$0.38 after Monday’s -$0.34),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.42),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.36 after Thursday’s +$0.04, Wednesday’s -$1.65, Tuesday’s +$0.44 and Monday’s -$0.42),
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.33),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$0.32 after Thursday’s -$2.17, Wednesday’s -$3.20, Tuesday’s -$3.30 and Monday’s -$9.23),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.30),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.290,
Closing Up (11 of 11):
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.54 after Thursday’s -$1.27),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.52 after Thursday’s -$0.97, Wednesday’s -$1.83, Tuesday’s +$0.70 and Monday’s -$0.46),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.43 after Thursday’s -$0.36),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.24 after Thursday’s +$0.46),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.21),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.12),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.05 after Thursday’s -$0.72 and Wednesday’s -$1.56),
- Verastem (VSTM +$0.05),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.02),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.02),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.02),
Q1/23 – February
- Friday closed negative with 11 incliner, 24 decliners and 0 flat
- Thursday closed negative with 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat
- Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliner, 31 decliners and 0 flat
- Tuesday closed positive with 23 incliner, 12 decliners and 0 flat
- Monday closed negative with 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
Sector sentiment is STILL governed by electronic trading and algorithms.
From Friday’s a.m. post, “sector share pricing is stuck until it isn’t.”
Friday repeated the downside patter after Thursday’s sector “numbers” reversed having gotten shook down by the algos and electronic trading” after Wednesday’s post stating “The market and sector “gyrate” as algorithms and electronic trading satisfies the lust for returns in quant and hedge funds.
I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring – it was TRUE again today, Friday.
Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.
· Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) 2/16 – Thursday
· Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) 2/16 - Thursday
· Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 2/22 – Wednesday
· Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 2/23 – Thursday
· Vericel (VCEL) 2/23 - Thursday
If you thought of buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship.
Attention remains… laser-focused on week’s busy economic calendar; there’s still a bit of hesitation in front of inflation data to really see the reality of the markets and cell and gene therapy sector ability or capacity to move upward.
There are clear losers today … Ultragenyx (RARE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
With winners … Prime Medicine (PRME), Vericel (VCEL) and AxoGen (AXGN)
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
Friday closed down -$0.20 with 3,961 shares traded after Thursday’s flat with 0 shares traded, Wednesday -$0.01 with 100 shares traded, Tuesday’s -$0.01with 2,300 shares traded after Monday flat with 0 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,236 shares>
· BSTG has “pulled” its proposed offering … “Withdrawal of Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-265741)”
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!
Question; is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (the pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
