February 15, 2023 4:55pm

Who says inflation is NOT affecting share pricing? Not me …!

Pre-open indications 3 Hits and 2 Miss

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +38.78 points (+0.11%); the S&P closed UP +11.47 points (+0.28%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +110.45 points (+0.92%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes tacked higher Wednesday after a stronger-than-expected retail sales along with the latest U.S. inflation data.

Economic Data Docket: January retail sales rose 3%, while economists polled by Dow Jones anticipated a 1.9% increase. The number signals that the U.S. economy is holding up despite increased rate hikes by the Fed to tame inflation.

  • The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index showed a smaller-than-expected decline in business activity for the month of February; coming in at -5.8, well above a previous print of -32.9. It’s also above a Dow Jones consensus estimate of -20.3.

 

Wednesday’s … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “more sentiment data due. One indicator of many, the aftermarket was weighted by downside movements” …  https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12835

 

Pre-open indications: 3 Hits < Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.19), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.07), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.04)> and 2 Miss < uniQure NV (QURE -$0.25), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.30),

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 28 down and 0 flat, stayed negative with 15 up/ 18 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 18/15 and 2 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators: oscillating to the downside

  • Tuesday, the IBB was flat and the XBI was +0.23%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked: illuminating the changes

  • Tuesday was down -0.62 points or -2.38% at 18.29

 

Closing Down (10 of 15):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.81 after Tuesday +$2.57 and Monday’s +$7.08),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.36),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.93 after Tuesday -$0.72 and Monday’s +$1.30),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.63 after Tuesday -$0.46 and Monday’s +$0.67),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.49 after Tuesday +$0.17 and Monday’s -$0.32),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.25 after Tuesday -$0.78 and Monday’s -$0.06),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.11 after Tuesday’s -$0.20),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.10),
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.09 after Tuesday’s +$0.96 and Monday’s +$0.08)
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.09 after Tuesday’s +$0.01 and Monday’s -$0.09),

Flat:

  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU)

Closing Up (10 of 18):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.30 after Tuesday’s -$0.64 and Monday’s +$1.73),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.12),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.02,
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.00 after Tuesday’s -$0.54 and Monday’s +$1.35),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.96 after Tuesday’s -$0.56 and Monday’s -$0.19),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.23),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.23 after Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.19 after Tuesday -$0.36 and Monday’s +$0.27),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.19),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.11 after Tuesday’s +$0.04 and Monday’s +$0.25),

 

Q1/23 – February

Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

The sector barely popped on Wednesday late in the session, after another inflation report following Tuesday’s negative close and Monday’s positive close.

I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring – it was TRUE again today, Friday.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

·         Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) 2/16 – Thursday

·         Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) 2/16 - Thursday

·         Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 2/22 – Wednesday

·         Editas Medicine (EDIT) 2/22 - Wednesday

·         Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 2/23 – Thursday

·         Vericel (VCEL) 2/23 – Thursday

·         Fate Therapeutics (FATE) 2/28- Tuesday

·         MiMedx (MDXG) 2/28 - Tuesday

If you thought of buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship.

 

There are clear losers today … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Chinook therapeutics (KDNY) and Prime Medicine (PRME)

With winners … CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – floating more pumps and promotes like Chinese “objects” suddenly appearing. WHY hasn’t the SEC “shot Biostage down?

Wednesdays closed down -$0.09 with 2,676 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.96 with 2,105 shares traded, Monday’s +$0.08 with 300 shares traded, Friday’s -$0.20 with 3,961 shares traded, Thursday’s flat with 0 shares traded and last Wednesday -$0.01 with 100 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,301 shares>

·         BSTG has “pulled” its proposed offering … “Withdrawal of Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-265741)”

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!

·         Question; is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (the pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

 

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.