February 16, 2023 4:51pm

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges

Pre-open indications: 2 Hits and 2 Miss

Earnings:

  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) a Q4/22 net loss of -$147.1 M (FY22 -$532.8 M), -$2.47 (FY22 -$8.98) per share, cash position $1.3 B and runway until 2025
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) a Q4/22 net loss of -$151.8 M (FY22 -$707.4 M), -$2.16 (FY22 -$10.12) per share, cash position $896.7 M and runway until 2025

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -431.20 points (-1.26%); the S&P closed DOWN -57.19points (-1.38%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -214.76 points (-1.78%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies

Indexes fell Thursday after an unexpected higher PPI inflation report, and a decline in jobless claims, showing the economy is holding up – or is it amid the anticipated Fed’s rate hikes.

“The new data comes after January’s consumer price index and retail sales report were both higher than expected, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may have further to go in its efforts to tame inflation.” <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: January’s producer price index, another inflation measure, rose 0.7% on the month while economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a 0.4% increase. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell for the week ending February 11, per a Labor Department report.

  • Comments from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard that he’d advocated for a 50 basis-point interest rate hike at the last meeting could see one in March also weighed on equities. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester also said she supported a larger hike.

 

Thursday’s … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: does the cell/gene therapy sector have legs with a new consignment of economic data? Risks seem to be priced in as the sector limps with share pricing barely budging” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12837

 

Pre-open indications: 2 Hits <Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.05), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.95)> and 2 Miss <Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.13), Vericel (VCEL -$0.67)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 26 down and 0 flat, stayed negative with 10 up/ 24 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 5/30 and 0 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators: oscillating to the downside

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -1.26% and the XBI was down -1.50%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked: illuminating the changes

  • Thursday was up +1.99 points or +10.92% at 20.22

 

Closing Down (10 of 30):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$2.27 after Wednesday’s +$1.02,
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.25 after Wednesday’s -$2.81, Tuesday +$2.57 and Monday’s +$7.08),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.95 after Wednesday’s +$1.00, Tuesday’s -$0.54 and Monday’s +$1.35),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.63 after Wednesday’s +$1.30, Tuesday’s -$0.64 and Monday’s +$1.73),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.26 after Wednesday’s +$0.19),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$1.13),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.91 after Wednesday’s +$1.09, Tuesday’s -$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.12),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.67),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.53),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.47 after Wednesday’s -$0.63, Tuesday -$0.46 and Monday’s +$0.67),

Closing Up (5 of 5):

  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.11 after Wednesday’s -$0.10),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.06 after Wednesday’s +$0.96 after Tuesday’s -$0.56 and Monday’s -$0.19),
  • Avrobio (AVRO +$0.02),
  • Homology Medicines (FIXX +$0.01),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0097),

 

Q1/23 – February

  • Thursday closed negative with 5 incliner, 30 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Investors should recognize inflation may not return to normal levels begetting more volatility and DIPPING and CHOPPY sector share pricing.

The sector dived on Thursday after Wednesday barely upside pop which occurred late in the session, following yet another inflation reports subsequent to Tuesday’s negative close and Monday’s positive close.

I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

·         Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) 2/22 – Wednesday

·         Editas Medicine (EDIT) 2/22 - Wednesday

·         Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) 2/23 – Thursday

·         Vericel (VCEL) 2/23 – Thursday

·         Fate Therapeutics (FATE) 2/28- Tuesday

·         MiMedx (MDXG) 2/28 - Tuesday

If you thought of buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship.

 

There are clear losers today …Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

And winners … Mesoblast (MESO), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Avrobio (AVRO)

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – floating more pumps and promotes like Chinese “objects” suddenly appearing. WHY hasn’t the SEC “shot Biostage down?

Thursday closed down-$0.10 with 1,414 shares traded after Wednesdays closed down -$0.09 with 2,676 shares traded after Tuesday’s +$0.96 with 2,105 shares traded, Monday’s +$0.08 with 300 shares traded, Friday’s -$0.20 with 3,961 shares traded, Thursday’s flat with 0 shares traded and last Wednesday -$0.01 with 100 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,344 shares>

·         BSTG has “pulled” its proposed offering … “Withdrawal of Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-265741)”

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!

·         Question; is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (the pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

 

 My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.