February 28, 2023 4:57pm
After a month of stumbles, cell/gene therapy equities retreated in February with economic data roiling direction
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -232.39 points (-0.71%); the S&P closed DOWN -12.09 points (-0.30%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -11.44 points (-0.10%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes were among the fallen as the Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq felt subdued. Each of the three major indexes are poised to close with monthly declines, as investors continue to assess the likelihood of high interest rates for an extended period of time.
For the month, Dow ended -4.19% lower and has dipped 1.48% year to date. The S&P 500 lost -2.61% and Nasdaq dived -1.11% in February, but are still higher year to date.
Economic Data Docket: Economic data showed a reading of consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in February, while a gauge of home prices slowed further in December.
- The Conference board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 102.9 for the month, down from 106 in January and below the 108.5 estimate from Dow Jones. Though the Present Situation Index actually ticked up slightly to 152.8, the Expectations Index slid to 69.7, down from 76 in January. A reading below 80 in the expectations side is considered consistent with a recession in the next 12 months.
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting dates … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12830
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 9 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 23 up/ 10 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20/12 and 3 flats
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 8 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 25 up/ 8 down and 3 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/8 and 1 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.24% and the XBI was up +0.88%
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.36% and the XBI was up +0.87%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -0.27 points or -1.29% at 20.68
- Monday was down-0.68 points or -3.14% at 20.99
Closing Down (12 of 12):
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.28),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.31 after Monday’s +$0.52),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$1.12 after Monday’s +$0.52),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.14),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.09),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.09 after Monday’s -$0.29),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.08),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.08),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.04 after Monday’s +$1.04),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.04),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.03),
- Avrobio (AVRO -$0.020
Flat (3):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG),
- Precigen (PGEN)
- Editas Medicine (EDIT)
Closing Up (10 of 20):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.44 after Monday’s +$0.23),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.25),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.03 after Monday’s +$0.66),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.78 after Monday’s +$1.65)
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.63),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.31 after Monday’s +$0.63)
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.16 after Monday’s +$1.14)
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.25 after Monday’s -$0.14),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.16)
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.11)
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.10)
Q1/23 – February
Tuesday closed positive with 20 incliner, 12 decliners and 3 flats
Monday closed positive with 26 incliner, 8 decliners and 1 flat
Friday was a vacation day
Thursday was a vacation day
Wednesday closed positive with 19 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat
Monday was a holiday
Friday closed positive with 28 incliner, 5 decliners and 2 flats
Thursday closed negative with 5 incliner, 30 decliners and 0 flat
Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat
Tuesday closed negative with 13 incliner, 22 decliners and 0 flat
Monday closed positive with 18 incliner, 16 decliners and 1 flat
Friday closed negative with 11 incliner, 24 decliners and 0 flat
Thursday closed negative with 3 incliner, 31 decliners and 1 flat
Wednesday closed negative with 4 incliner, 31 decliners and 0 flat
Monday closed negative with 11 incliner, 23 decliners and 1 flat
Friday closed negative with 15 incliner, 19 decliners and 1 flat
Thursday closed positive with 29 incliner, 5 decliners and 1 flat
Wednesday (2/1) closed positive with 24 incliner, 10 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
A very appropriate quote, “You don't do well by trying to be right; it is impossible for humans. You do well by figuring out when you're wrong faster than others do.” <Nassim Nicholas Taleb>
The lower the sector’s equities dive, divines their capacity to rebound!
Reiterating “Investors should recognize inflation may not return to normal levels begetting more volatility and DIPPING and CHOPPY sector share pricing.”
I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.
Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.
· Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR 3/7 - Tuesday
· Agenus (AGEN) 3/14 -Tuesday
There are clear losers today … Prime Medicine (PRME), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Vericel (VCEL)
With winners … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam therapeutics (BEAM) and Ultragenyx (RARE),
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
2Wednesday closed flat with 5,601 shares traded on Tuesday after Monday’s -$0.20 with 382 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,308 shares>
· David Green, CEO and Chairman of Board did accomplish ONE THING – he was able to shift LIABILITY of $5 M death suit (enabled Paolo Macchiarini artificial organ lawsuit) after he made the decision and were PERSONALLY LIABLE to SHAREHOLDERS …???
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
