March 1, 2023 4:48pm

Fulfilling my concerns and worries of sector equity’s volatility and risk premiums

Pre-open indication Results: 5 Hits and 5 Miss

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +5.14 points (+0.02%); the S&P closed DOWN -18.76 points (-0.47%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -76.06 points (-0.66%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes fell on Wednesday as Treasury yields jumped after manufacturing data indicated stubbornly high inflation, while comments from Fed policymakers maintained a hawkish policy stance.

·         The yield on 10-year notes topped 4% for the first time since November, reaching a high of 4.006%, after the Institute for Supply Management's survey showed U.S. manufacturing contracted in February and prices for raw materials increased last month.

·         The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 9.4 basis points at 4.891% after reaching 4.904%, its highest since 2007. <Reuters>

Nasdaq volume was higher than Tuesday at the same time.

As far as referencing in the title … the equity’s volatility and risk premium: see … definition from Monday’s post of https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12846

Economic Data Docket: February's final manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 47.3 vs. the 47.8 estimate, according to Econoday. The metric measures month-to-month activity in production, new orders, stock levels, employment and prices in the private sector.

·         The February Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index of 47.7 was weaker than the 48.0 consensus. A reading below 50 is a contraction level for the manufacturing sector. <IBD>

·         The Mortgage Bankers' Association (MBA) report on mortgage applications for the week ended Feb. 24 dropped 5.7%, following the 13.3% decline in the prior week. It was the third consecutive weekly drop as mortgage rates crept up to levels not seen since November.

·         There were signs that factory activity was starting to stabilize, with a measure of new orders pulling back from a more than 2-1/2-year low.

 

Pre-open indication Results: 5 Hits <Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.13), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.05), Ultragenyx (RGNX +$1.16), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.74), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.07)> and 5 Miss < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.60), MiMedx (MDXG -$0.625), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.21), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.03), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.09), >

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting dates … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12830

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 17 up/ 16 down and 2 flats, flopped negative with 13 up/ 20 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 12/22 and z flats

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.69% and the XBI was up +0.33%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was down -0.03 points or -0.14% at 20.67

 

Closing Down (10 of 22):

  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.74 after Tuesday’s +$1.25),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.60 after Tuesday’s +$0.16 and Monday’s +$1.14)
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.81),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.62),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.46),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.42),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.32 after Tuesday’s $0.00),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.12),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.12 after Tuesday ’s -$0.09 and Monday’s -$0.29),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.11 after Tuesday’s $0.00)

Flat (1):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)

Closing Up (12 of 12):

  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.89 after Tuesday’s +$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.63)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.95 after Tuesday’s +$1.44 and Monday’s +$0.23),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.16 after Tuesday’s +$1.03 and Monday’s +$0.66),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$1.13 after Tuesday’s +$0.25 and Monday’s -$0.14),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.58 after Tuesday’s +$0.78 and Monday’s +$1.65)
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.56 after Tuesday’s -$0.04 and Monday’s +$1.04),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.63),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.04),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.05 after Tuesday’s -$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.52),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.03),
  • Avrobio (AVRO +$0.03 after Tuesday’s -$0.02)
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.01),

 

Q1/23 – March

  • Wednesday closed negative with 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

The cell and gene therapy sector has struggled as economic data piled up slowing share pricing as the overall economy – I believe canceled the costs of living unleashing damage to the sector.

The lower the sector’s equities dive, divines their capacity to rebound!

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

Reiterating “Investors should recognize inflation may not return to normal levels begetting more volatility and DIPPING and CHOPPY sector share pricing.”

I do NOT believe there aren't a lot of cell/gene therapy companies in position yet – UNTIL earnings (Q4) are reported – any breakout is a false hope with the inevitable downside re-occurring.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

·         Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) 3/7 – Tuesday

·         Agenus (AGEN) 3/14 -Tuesday

My advice: open that portfolio envelope and think of a game of monopoly and follow RMi’s moves to recoup losses. As I have stated, “What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain followed by the opposite effect”.

There are clear losers today … Beam therapeutics (BEAM), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

With winners … Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Regenxbio (RGNX) - again and Ultragenyx (RARE) - again

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)

Wednesday closed flat again on Wednesday with 71 shares traded after Tuesday’s flat 5,601 shares traded <an example of a Ponzi scheme ???> on Tuesday after Monday’s -$0.20 with 382 shares traded. <3-month average volume = 1,328 shares>

·         David Green, CEO and Chairman of Board did accomplish ONE THING – he was able to shift LIABILITY of $5 M death suit (enabled Paolo Macchiarini artificial organ lawsuit) after he made the decision and were PERSONALLY LIABLE to SHAREHOLDERS …???

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.