March 7, 2023 4:48pm

 

While the cell and gene therapy sector fell as the trap door sprung "with a tightened noose on share pricing"

Pre-open indication Results: 2 Hits and 2 Miss

Earnings: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.62 or -7.79%) a Q4/22 net loss of -$23.6 M (FY22 -$46.4 M), or -$0.61 (FY22 -$1.21) per share, cash position $118.8 M and runway until 2025 with EPS and revenue miss.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -574.58 points (-1.72%); the S&P closed DOWN -62.04 points (-1.53%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -145.40 points (-1.25%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes stocks sold off Tuesday after comments from Fed Chair Powell suggested that rates may need to go higher for longer, fueling fears of a potentially larger rate hike at the central bank’s next policy meeting.

  • Powell’s remarks could mean that the peak rate for federal funds, also called the terminal rate, will likely go higher than previously expected, despite investor hopes that the Fed might have stopped hiking soon.

Economic Data Docket: Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey released Tuesday showed wholesale inventories slid 0.4% in January from December. Economists had expected inventories to fall that much.

  • Powell’s comments raise the stakes for February’s jobs report out Friday morning, which could show a resilient labor market that allows the Fed to keep hiking. Economists expect 225,000 jobs were added last month, according to a Dow Jones survey. <CNBC>

 

Pre-open indication Results: 2 Hits <Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.08), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.34)> and 2 Miss <Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.59), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.06)

 

52-week low:

·         Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) at $2.48

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 - 17 of 35

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting dates … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12830

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 15 up/ 18 down and 2 flats, flipped positive with 18 up/ 16 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 14/20 and 1 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.59% and the XBI was down -0.12%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.98 points or +5.27% at 19.59

 

Closing Down (10 of 20):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.36 after Monday’s -$2.88),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.50 after Monday’s -$1.54),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.49 after Monday’s -$1.51)
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.34 after Monday’s +$0.30),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.62 after Monday’s +$0.65),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.59),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.51 after Monday’s -$0.97),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.37 after Monday’s -$0.68),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.19 after Monday’s +$0.03),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.15)

Flat (1):

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)

Closing Up (10 of 14):

  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.54 after Monday’s -$1.30),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.51 after Monday’s -$1.46)
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.47),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.26),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.20),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.13),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.13),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.08),
  • Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.08),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.05),

 

Q1/23 – March

  • Tuesday closed negative with 14 incliner, 20 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday closed negative with 6 incliner, 27 decliners and 2 flats
  • Friday closed positive with 22 incliner, 13 decliners and 0 flat
  • Thursday closed negative with 12 incliner, 19 decliners and 4 flats
  • Wednesday closed negative with 12 incliner, 22 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

The Monday oversold were recognized even as … the stock market appeared to react to one part of Fed chair Powell's prepared testimony. He cautioned that "the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected, which suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated. If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes." <IBD>

Also, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.7%.

Trading has been choppy this month after economic data; as risk assets faced headwinds from inflation data and tightening monetary policy

The rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release is on … 15 of my 35 covered have reported.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

·         Cellectis SA (CLLS) 3/9 - Thursday

·         Agenus (AGEN) 3/14 -Tuesday

·         AxoGen (AXGN) 3/14 Tuesday

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

My advice: open that portfolio envelope and think of a game of monopoly and follow RMi’s moves to recoup losses. As I have stated, “What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain followed by the opposite effect.”

 

There are clear losers today …  Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx (RARE) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)

With winners … Vericel (VCEL), Regenxbio (RGNX) and uniQure NV (QURE)

 

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)

Tuesday closed down -$0.10 with 510 shares traded after Monday closed flat with 2,320 shares traded <3-month average volume = 1,098 shares> after Friday’s down -$0.20 with 2,270 shares traded after being flat on Thursday with 0 shares traded after Wednesday flat with 71 shares traded after Tuesday’s flat 5,601 shares traded.

·         Yet another CEO and chairman, Jerry He – what changes to the ill-fated story will ONLY be relieved by TRULY reviewing the past and communicating with those who have something to say – to right-size this company!

·         Leaving by his own hand or replaced - David Green, CEO and Chairman of Board did accomplish ONE THING – he was able to shift LIABILITY of $5 M death suit (enabled Paolo Macchiarini artificial organ lawsuit) after he made the decision and were PERSONALLY LIABLE to SHAREHOLDERS …???

·         This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         The past management team is and was disconnected with US investors and I-Banks; so it behooves the new CEO to connect with a more solid story and reduce those who have brought the company to its toes!

·         Let’s also welcome a NEW accounting firm. When will they resign …??

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.