March 8, 2023 4:55pm
After climbing a wall of worry and exhausted by share pricing fear
Pre-open indication Results: 4 Hits and 2 Miss
As I have stated, “What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain followed by the opposite effect”.
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others won’t say or write about - truth!
Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -57.93 points (-0.18%); the S&P closed UP +5.64 points (+0.14%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +45.67 points (+0.40%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes on Wednesday struggled to recover from Tuesday's sell-off to closed mixed as the Dow fell, the S&P and Nasdaq bounced barely upward.
· Each in the wake of comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting bigger interest rate rises may be needed to quell inflation.
Declines in healthcare stocks contributed to the Dow’s more than 200-point loss during midday trading. Merck (MRK) shares were last down about 3% after the pharmaceutical stock announced its licensing deal with OPKO Health (OPKO), UnitedHealth (UEEC)shares dropped about 1.4%, while Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Amgen (AMGN) and Procter & Gamble (PG) moved slightly lower.
U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in February, pointing to continued labor market strength.
Economic Data Docket: Private employment increased by 242,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. Data for January was revised higher to show 119,000 jobs added instead of 106,000 as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. <Reuters>
Pre-open indication Results: 4 Hits <Mesoblast (MESO +$0.72), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.23), MiMedx (MDXG -$0.16), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.05)> and 2 Miss <Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.53), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.10)>
52-week low:
· Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) at $2.41
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 - 17 of 35
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting dates … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12830
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences
Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 19 up/ 15 down and 1 flat, flipped positive at 10 a.m. with 20 up/ 15 down and 0 flat, fell negative at the mid-day with 13 up/ 21 down and 1 flat, ending with a negative close of 12/20 and 3 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.68% and the XBI was down -0.93%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -0.53 points or -2.71% at 19.06
Closing Down (10 of 20):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.93 after Tuesday’s -$5.36 and Monday’s -$2.88),
- Verve therapeutics (VERV -$0.53),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.47 after Tuesday’s +$0.51 and Monday’s -$1.46),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.23 after Tuesday’s -$0.51 and Monday’s -$0.97),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.17 after Tuesday’s -$1.50 and Monday’s -$1.54),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.16),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.16 after Tuesday’s +$0.26),
- Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.10 after Tuesday’s -$0.37 and Monday’s -$0.68),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.09),
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.07),
Flat (3):
- bluebird bio (BLUE),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS)
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX)
Closing Up (12 of 12):
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$3.67 after Tuesday’s -$1.34 and Monday’s +$0.30),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.79 after Tuesday’s -$0.62 and Monday’s +$0.65),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.72 after Tuesday’s -$0.19 and Monday’s +$0.03),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.22),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$1.49 and Monday’s -$1.51)
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.04 after Tuesday’s -$0.15)
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.03),
- Adverum Biotechnologies ADVM +$0.0279),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.10 and Monday’s $0.00),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$0.13),
- Verastem (VSTM +$0.002),
Q1/23 – March
- Wednesday closed negative with 12 incliner, 20 decliners and 3 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
The cell and gene therapy sector is burring its head in the share pricing sand even with Q4 and FY22 earnings releases not fully reported (of my 35 covered).
Trading has been choppy this month after economic data; as risk assets faced headwinds from inflation data and tightening monetary policy
Another victim of the times; gene therapy start-up backed by two key bio-pharma companies and two named biotech VC firms has ceased operations … Coda Biotherapeutics – shut down.
The rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release is on … 17 of my 35 covered have reported.
Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.
· Cellectis SA (CLLS) 3/9 - Thursday
· Agenus (AGEN) 3/14 -Tuesday
· AxoGen (AXGN) 3/14 Tuesday
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.
My advice: open that portfolio envelope and think of a game of monopoly and follow RMi’s moves to recoup losses. As I have stated, “What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain followed by the opposite effect.”
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone!
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
Tuesday closed up +$0.02 with 2,719 shares traded after Tuesday's down -$0.10 with 510 shares traded after Monday closed flat with 2,320 shares traded <3-month average volume = 1,042 shares> after Friday’s down -$0.20 with 2,270 shares traded after being flat on Thursday with 0 shares traded after Wednesday flat with 71 shares traded after Tuesday’s flat 5,601 shares traded.
· Yet another CEO and chairman, Jerry He – what changes to the ill-fated story will ONLY be relieved by TRULY reviewing the past and communicating with those who have something to say – to right-size this company!
· Leaving by his own hand or replaced - David Green, CEO and Chairman of Board did accomplish ONE THING – he was able to shift LIABILITY of $5 M death suit (enabled Paolo Macchiarini artificial organ lawsuit) after he made the decision and were PERSONALLY LIABLE to SHAREHOLDERS …???
· This IND – now almost 4 years old without a clinical trial that will last 3-5 years for ADULT patients before BSTG can EVEN consider a pediatric venue!
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??
· The past management team is and was disconnected with US investors and I-Banks; so, it behooves the new CEO to connect with a more solid story and reduce those who have brought the company to its toes!
· Let’s also welcome a NEW accounting firm. When will they resign …??
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
