March 27, 2023 5:01pm

Sentiment has hop-scotched forward while conviction is still in doubt

News: Agenus (AGEN +$0.07) announced results from a cohort of 24 evaluable patients in an expansion of the P1b study of botensilimab (multifunctional CTLA-4 antibody) in combination with balstilimab (PD-1 antibody) in patients with recurrent platinum resistant/refractory ovarian cancer. These findings, presented in an oral plenary session at the Society of Gynecologic Oncology (SGO) 2023 Annual Meeting on Women’s Cancer, showed a 33% overall response rate (ORR).

Pre-open Indications: 5 Hits and 2 Miss

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +194.55 points (+0.60%), the S&P closed UP +6.54 points (+0.16%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -55.12 points (-0.47%)

 

Henry’omics: what goes on around us, must be factored into the model ...

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

The Dow and S&P rose while the Nasdaq dived on Monday, as markets attempt to move the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

·         SVB's failure is a textbook case of mismanagement," Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr who will testify to lawmakers.

·         First Citizens BancShares agreed to buy large parts of SVB, according to the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·         The deal includes the purchase of approximately $72 billion of SVB assets at a discount of $16.5 billion, but around $90 billion in securities and other assets will remain “in receivership for disposition by the FDIC”. <CNBC>

·         First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) was up 55% Monday after it said it would acquire the deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the largest bank collapse since the 2008 financial crisis.

·         The sale of SVB will likely take a bite out of the earnings of other banks in the coming years, according to Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo. <CNBC>

News (continued): Agenus (AGEN) from title: The ovarian cancer cohort is part of a large study evaluating the safety, efficacy, and dose optimization of botensilimab alone and in combination with balstilimab in multiple solid tumors. Agenus is currently enrolling in Global P2 ACTIVATE trial programs in metastatic microsatellite stable colorectal cancer, melanoma and pancreatic cancers. Based on recent positive findings presented at SITC, Agenus is also expanding enrollment of its anti-PD-(L)1 relapsed/refractory non-small cell lung cancer cohort of the Phase 1b study and planning additional NSCLC studies.

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences

  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 27 up/ 7 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 24 up/ 10 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23/11 and 1 flat
  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 30 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 11 up/ 22 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 19/15 and 1 flat

 

Pre-open Indications: 5 Hits <BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (BCL +$0.05), Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.66), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.92), Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.35), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.15)> 2 Miss <Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.47), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.16)>

52-week low:

·         Homology Medicine (FIXX) at $0.89

·         Precigen (PGEN) at $0.82

 

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 - 28 of 35

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.13% and the XBI was up +1.02%
  • Friday, the IBB was up +1.22% and the XBI was up +0.66%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Monday was down -1.122 points or -5.15% at 20.62
  • Friday was down -0.51 points or -2.26% at 22.10

 

Closing Down (11 of 11):

  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.15 after Friday’s +$1.12),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.45),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.35 after Friday’s +$0.69),
  • Ionis pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.23 after Friday’s +$0.33
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.11 after Friday’s -$0.11),
  • Precigen (PGEN -$0.0816),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.05),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.04),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.0231),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0192),

Flat (1):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)

Closing Up (10 of 23):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.92 after Friday’s +$0.29),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.83 after Friday’s -$0.03),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.66 after Friday’s -$0.37),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.53 after Friday’s -$0.51),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.47 after Friday’s +$0.46),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.27),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.25),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.20 after Friday’s -$0.09),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.19)
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.16 after Friday’s +$0.30),

 

Q1/23 – March

  • Monday closed positive with 23 incliner, 11 decliners and 1 flat
  • Friday closed positive with 19 incliner, 15 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

No bad news today re banks dragging down the sector ; the question will be if First Citizen’s Bank can assimilate the deposit and loan flight from Silicon Valley Bank <SVB>.

The second maybe third consolidation move is to CUT the overstaffed who went along with the mistakes of senior management.

We are in … for a bumpy road until … all cell and gene therapy companies who banked with SVB have exited or gained control … of their own deposits/monies.

For the year:

  • The S&P 500 is up 138.03 points, or 3.6%.
  • The Dow is down 715.17 points, or 2.2%.
  • The Nasdaq is up 1,302.35 points, or 12.4%.
  • The Russell 2000 is down 7.57 points, or 0.4%.

The rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release is slowing as … 28 of my 35 covered have reported.

Upcoming Q4 earnings reporting will present challenges to share pricing.

·         Last Thursday – Avrobio (AVRO) and Solid Biosciences (SLDB) reported

·         Seven (7) more releases forthcoming of my 35 covered companies

·         Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) 3/30 - Thursday

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

As I have stated, “What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain followed by the opposite effect.”

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – still pumping the volume and TRYING to promote the share price!!

Monday closed flat with 25 share s traded <3-month average volume = 1,728 shares>

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         Let’s also welcome a NEW accounting firm – the fourth (4th) in five (5) years. When will they resign …??

·         Where is the SEC??

·         NEW Auditors must consider whether there is substantial doubt about a company’s ability to continue as a going concern, an assessment of the company’s viability over the next year.

·         As OTCQB: BSTG continues as an “going concern”!

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.