April 10, 2023 4:38pm
The week ahead, uncertainty around economic data which seems to strike conviction from sector share pricing
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits and 0 Miss
We are facing a prisoner’s dilemma- a situation wherein individuals acting in their own best interest do not achieve the optimal outcome for the overall group.
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed up +101.23 points (+0.30%), the S&P closed UP +4.09 points (+0.10%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -3.60 points (-0.03%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
The Dow rose and S&P barely moved although rose on Monday followed by the Nasdaq as the cell and gene therapy sector diving after Thursday’s ascension to the positive.
An illuminating quote as to what is ahead this week, “Investors are in for a busy week of economic data, including the latest consumer price and producer price index data for March – due out Wednesday and Thursday, respectively – which will be key in determining if or when the Fed will pause or put an end to its rate hiking campaign.” <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: U.S. wholesale inventory rose 0.1% in February, up 12% year over year, according to a monthly Census Bureau report. Sales climbed 0.4% from January, or 1.3% for the year. The inventory-to-sales ratio stood at 1.37 versus 1.24 a year ago.
RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “sector share pricing sustainability needed as of or if there is any chance of adding the intangible confidence to the model.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12907
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits <Sell into Strength: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.35), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.55), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.37), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.06)> and 0 Miss
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 12 up/ 23 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 11/24 and 0 flat
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 - 31 of 35 – added BCLI, ADVM, BLUE and BSTG
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was down -0.53% and the XBI was down -0.94%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +0.63 points or +3.42% at 19.03
Closing Down (10 of 24):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$5.45),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$2.26),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.21),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.00),
- uniQure NV (QURE -$0.60),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$0.52),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.51),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.45),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.37),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.36),
Closing Up (11 of 11):
- Vericel VCEL +$0.42),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.35),
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.32),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.17),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.08),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.07),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.05),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.04),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.04),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0389),
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.02),
Q2/23 – April
- Monday closed negative with 11 incliners, 24 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
It is just not working for cell and gene therapy equities.
Sector watchers and disgruntled investors - pay attention to the consumer (CPI) and producer (PPI) price indexes, expected on Thursday and Friday, respectively, for a more complete picture regarding the extent to which inflation cooled in March.
April is typically a good month as investors look to the Q2 and move past tax season, among other reasons. It’s historically been the second-best month of the year for the S&P 500 and fourth best for the Nasdaq.
The rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release has slowed as … 31 of my 35 covered have reported.
· Four (4) more releases forthcoming of my 35 covered companies
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone!
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – still pumping the volume and to promote the share price!!
OTCQB: BSTG closed down -$0.07 with 200 shares traded <3-month average =1,821 shares>
· Did FINANCE happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL …. Beijing, China money. What analysts are following the company? - NONE
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??
· Notice the new director, Ron Packard, MATCH his background to the new Chairman and CEO – education buddies (different companies each in ed field – independent director?
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
