April 14, 2023 5:14pm
It's a daunting task to understand the patterns of risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules,” I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t machine oriented!
Pre-open Indications: 8 hits and 0 Miss
More frequently right than consequentially wrong
Avrobio (AVRO) closed down -$0.012 on Friday to $0.94 after Thursday +$0.07, Wednesday -$0.06 to $0.89 and Tuesday’s +$0.04 – still under Nasdaq rule of $1.00; will it revisit the de-listing status after nine (9) sessions under the minimum?
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
Week in review, a mixed return if any with 3 of 5 negative sessions
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -143.22 points (-0.42%), the S&P closed DOWN -8.58 points (-0.21%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -42.81 points (-0.35%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies
Indexes fell after a weak retail sales report dented enthusiasm around a stronger-than-expected start to corporate bank earnings.
Retail sales came in weaker than expected, having to do with past lower gas prices, which are about to speed upward and a negative for the next spending economic release.
Economic Data Docket: weaker-than-expected advanced retail sales data that showed consumer spending fell twice as much as expected in March. Retail sales declined by 1% last month, more than the 0.5% fall expected by economists.
· Consumer sentiment is improving in April, according to a University of Michigan survey, but Americans are also expecting high inflation over the next year.
· The Index for Consumer Sentiment came in at 63.5 for its preliminary April reading, above the 62.0 reading for last month.
· Economists expected the index to stay the same. But on the negative side, 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% in April from 3.6% in March. <CNBC>
Friday (4/14) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “I suspect a fear trade Friday. The move follows the cell and gene therapy sector’s dramatic advance/decline line ascension as inflation could be slowing. Always’ remember and do NOT forget, today’s investors’ gold is a trader’s disposable tin.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12915
Pre-open Indications: 8 Hits <Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.97), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.27), Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.06), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.95), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.25), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.56), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.64), Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.02)> and 0 Miss
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 27 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 9 up/ 26 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8/27 and 0 flat
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 31 up/ 3 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 33 up/ 1 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 32/3 and 0 flat
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 18 up/ 15 down and 2 flats, flipped neutral with 17 up/ 17 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 7/27 and 1 flat
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 10 up/ 23 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 23 up/ 10 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23/11 and 3 flat
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 12 up/ 23 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 11/24 and 0 flat
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q4 and FY22 earnings reporting … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12843 - 31 of 35
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was down -0.86% and the XBI was down -1.56%
- Thursday, the IBB was up +2.31% and the XBI was up +4.46%
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.11% and the XBI was down -1.08%
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.27% and the XBI was up +0.98%
- Monday, the IBB was down -0.53% and the XBI was down -0.94%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -0.72 points or -4.04% at 17.08
- Thursday was down -1.23 points or -6.44% at 17.86
- Wednesday was up +0.13 points or +0.68% at 19.23
- Tuesday was up +0.22 points or +1.16% at 19.19
- Monday was up +0.63 points or +3.42% at 19.03
Closing Down (10 of 27):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.41 after Thursday’s +$4.44, Wednesday’s +$0.08, Tuesday’s -$2.63 and Monday’s -$5.45),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.48 after Thursday’s +$1.43 and Wednesday’s +$0.52),
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.14),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.00),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.97 after Thursday’s +$2.49 and Wednesday’s -$0.34),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.95 after Thursday’s +$4.53, Wednesday’s -$0.73, Tuesday’s +$0.35 and Monday’s -$1.00),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.64 after Thursday’s +$2.00, Wednesday’s -$0.30, Tuesday’s +$0.35 and Monday’s +$0.05),
- Ionis Therapeutics (IONS -$0.56),
- Ultragenyx (RARE -$0.43 after Thursday’s +$1.14, Wednesday’s -$0.94, Tuesday’s +$1.08 and Monday’s -$2.26),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.42 after Thursday’s +$1.66),
Closing Up (8 of 8):
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.48),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG +$0.25 after Thursday’s +$0.10)
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.12 after Thursday’s -$0.07),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.06),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.03),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.02),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.0116),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO +$0.01),
Q2/23 – April
- Friday closed negative with 8 incliner, 27 decliners and 0 flat
- Thursday closed positive with 33 incliner, 2 decliners and 0 flat
- Wednesday closed negative with 7 incliner, 27 decliners and 1 flat
- Tuesday closed positive with 21 incliner, 11 decliners and 3 flats
- Monday closed negative with 11 incliner, 24 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
TGIF and more, Friday was called “Make a Buck” Friday as I believe selling before the hit (pre-market) hopefully helped many an investor.
Always’ remember and do NOT forget, yesterday’s investors’ gold is a trader’s disposable tin.
It’s all about EXPECTATION, and who knows what that might be … in these turbulent times.
Uncertainty over short-run share pricing expectations continues to be notably elevated, indicating that the recent volatility in expected year-ahead inflation is likely to continue.
Investor focus will now shift to Q1 earnings season. Investors are hesitant to add to positions re concerns of persisted inflation while electronic trading i.e., algorithms are the only ones to lead the upside.
April is typically a good month as investors look to the Q2 and move past tax season, among other reasons. It has historically been the second-best month of the year for the S&P 500 and fourth best for the Nasdaq.
The rush of Q4 and FY22 earnings to release has slowed as … 31 of my 35 covered have reported.
· Four (4) more releases forthcoming of my 35 covered companies
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone!
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – still pumping the volume and to promote the share price!!
OTCQB: BSTG closed Friday +$0.25 with 929 shares traded after Thursday +$0.10 with 150 shares traded after Wednesday -$0.05 with 101 shares traded, Tuesday $0.00 with 108 shares traded and Monday’s down -$0.07 with 200 shares traded <3-month average =1,821 shares>
· Did FINANCE happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL …. Beijing, China money. What analysts are following the company? - NONE
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??
· Notice the new director, Ron Packard, MATCH his background to the new Chairman and CEO – education buddies (different companies each in ed field – independent director?
· Biggest issue – RELIANCE on Chinese off-shore investment as US investors AVOID this equity – wonder WHY?
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
