April 19, 2023 4:35pm
But, what about investors who I believe sit on the sidelines or sell?
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits and 1 Miss
De-Listing Update: Avrobio (AVRO) Wednesday closed up +$0.026 to $0.93 after Tuesday closed down -$0.0245, Monday’s -$0.013 to $0.93, Friday’s -$0.012, Thursday +$0.07, last Wednesday -$0.06 and the previous Tuesday’s +$0.04 – still under Nasdaq rule of $1.00; will it revisit the de-listing status after twelve (12) sessions under the minimum? Doesn’t seem that CEO Geoff MacKay can garner support to forestall de-listing?
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -79.62 points (-0.23%), the S&P closed DOWN -0.35 points (-0.01%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +3.81 points (+0.03%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.
Indexes closed mixed after closing “barely” being down and up while hopscotching back and forth.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) was little changed Wednesday at 16.37, hovering below its 52-week low of 16.58 reached in January 2022.
Economic Data Docket: Mortgage applications to buy a home declined by 10% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with conforming loan balances rose to 6.43%, up from 6.30% the week prior.
Wednesday (4/19) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “recessionary fear is stealing from the upside. Investing time frames are further stunted as Q1/23 earnings cycle appears on the horizon.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12921
Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.34), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.35), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.13), Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.21)> and 1 Miss < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.56)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 18 up/ 17 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/9 and 0 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.42% and the XBI was up +1.20%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was down -0.46 points or -2.73% at 16.37
Closing Down (9 of 9):
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.44 after Tuesday’s +$2.10 after Monday’s +$1.80),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.16),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.13 after Tuesday’s -$1.46 and Monday’s +$1.09)
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.12),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.09),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.06 after Tuesday’s +$0.06 after Monday’s +$0.20),
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.05 after Tuesday’s flat after Monday’s -$0.20),
- Mesoblast (MESO -$0.02),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.01)
Closing Up (10 of 26):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.56 after Tuesday’s -$2.37 and Monday’s +$3.98),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.91 after Tuesday’s +$0.23 and Monday’s +$2.55),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.63 after Tuesday’s -$4.24 and Monday’s +$1.99),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.63 after Tuesday’s +$0.08 and Monday’s +$0.87),
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.45 after Tuesday’s +$0.36 and Monday’s +$1.24),
- Ionis Therapeutics (IONS +$0.35 after Tuesday’s -$1.40 and Monday’s +$0.78),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.34 after Tuesday’s -$0.75),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.30 after Tuesday’s -$0.46),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.25 after Tuesday’s -$0.50),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.21 after Tuesday’s +$0.12 and Monday’s +$0.74),
Q2/23 – April
- Wednesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 9 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
Upside potential and sustainability of pricing changes followed by upcoming earnings LPS (loss-per-share) expectation will mostly depend on macroeconomic business conditions, it's NOT worth handicapping the probability of ANY positive EPS surprise.
Investor focus will now shift to Q1 earnings season. Investors are hesitant to add to positions re concerns of persisted inflation while electronic trading i.e., algorithms are the only ones to lead the upside.
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone!
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) – still pumping the volume and to promote the share price!!
Wednesday closed down -$0.05 with 100 shares traded after Tuesday closed flat with zero shares traded after Monday’s down of -$0.20 with 3,500 shares traded, Friday +$0.25 with 929 shares traded, Thursday +$0.10 with 150 shares traded, Wednesday -$0.05 with 101 shares traded, last Tuesday $0.00 with 108 shares traded and the previous Monday’s down -$0.07 with 200 shares traded <3-month average =1,803 shares>
· Did FINANCING happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL … Beijing, China money? What analysts are following the company? - NONE
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??
· Notice the new director, Ron Packard, MATCH his background to the new Chairman and CEO – education buddies (different companies each in ed field – independent director?
· Biggest issue – RELIANCE on Chinese off-shore investment as US investors AVOID this equity – wonder WHY?
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
