April 21, 2023 4:46pm

Is it algorithms and electronic trading, it’s not investors or just covering options?

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 1 Miss

De-Listing Update: Avrobio (AVRO) Friday closed up +$0.08 to $0.95 after Thursday’s -$0.06, Wednesday +$0.026, Tuesday -$0.0245, Monday’s -$0.013 to $0.93, last Friday’s -$0.012, the previous Thursday’s +$0.07, Wednesday’s -$0.06 and Tuesday’s +$0.04 – still under Nasdaq rule of $1.00; after fourteen (14) sessions under the Nasdaq minimum? Doesn’t seem that CEO Geoff MacKay can garner support to forestall de-listing for the second time in months?

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

The week in review

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +22.34 points (+0.07%), the S&P closed UP +3.73 points (+0.09%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +12.90 points (+0.11%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes popped late in the session on Friday reacting to a mixed bag of a weakening economy, earnings beating expectations and drooping profits.

Major indices are on pace to finish the week in the red, with the Dow and the S&P 500 on track for their worst weekly performances since March. The Nasdaq’s was down -0.3%. The Dow was down -0.02% and S&P have lost -0.3%.

Good quote on target, ““So far, earnings season is off to an uneventful start, with many companies meeting already reduced earnings expectations and that helps to explain the lack of movement in the major stock indices over the past few days adding that she expects stocks to trade in a tight range for some time.” <Carol Schleif, CIO at BMO Family Office>

Economic Data Docket: Economic activity was stronger than expected in April, according to flash readings on services and manufacturing released Friday.

·         The S&P Global flash services index came in at 53.7, better than the Dow Jones estimate for 52. The manufacturing index registered a 50.4 reading, better than the expectation for 49. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between expansion and contraction in the purchase manager indexes.

·         The S&P U.S. PMI Composite Output Index was at 53.5, an 11-month high. The services index was a 12-month high and the manufacturing number was the best in six months.” <Jeff Cox>

 

Friday (4/21) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “begging for sector upside with a sidewalk situated tin can. Thursday selling seemed the usual and daily alternating cycle as well as prevalent with a weak aftermarket.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12926

 

Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits < bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.10), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.43), Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.22)> and 1 Miss < BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.50)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 19 up/ 13 down and 3 flats, stayed positive with 26 up/ 7 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 25/8 and 2 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 6 up/ 24 down and 5 flats, stayed negative with 9 up/ 25 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8/25 and 2 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 12 up/ 22 down and 1 flat, flipped positive with 18 up/ 17 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/9 and 0 flat
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 25 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9/25 and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 31 up/ 3 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 29 up/ 6 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 26/9 and 0 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +1.15% and the XBI was up +2.07%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.96% and the XBI was down -2.10%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.42% and the XBI was up +1.20%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.68% and the XBI was down -0.60%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +0.86% and the XBI was up +4.69%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was down -0.54 points or -3.15% at 16.63
  • Thursday was up +0.60 points or +3.65% at 17.60
  • Wednesday was down -0.46 points or -2.73% at 16.37
  • Tuesday was down -0.21 points or -1.24% at 16.74
  • Monday was down -0.11 points or -0.64% at 16.96

 

Closing Down (8 of 8):

  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.60 after Thursday’s +$0.02, Wednesday’s +$0.25 and Tuesday’s -$0.50),
  • Solid Biosciences (-$0.08 after Thursday’s +$0.11 and Wednesday’s -$0.12),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.07 and Thursday’s +$0.08),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.05),
  • Verastem (VSTM -$0.028),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.02),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.02),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0184)

Flat (2):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
  • Mesoblast (MESO)

Closing Up (10 of 25):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$6.42 after Thursday’s +$0.56 after Wednesday’s +$0.63, Tuesday’s -$4.24 and Monday’s +$1.99),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$2.12 after Thursday’s -$3.59, Wednesday’s +$1.56, Tuesday’s -$2.37 and Monday’s +$3.98),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.38 after Thursday’s -$1.90, Wednesday’s -$0.13, Tuesday’s -$1.46 and Monday’s +$1.09),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.07 after Thursday’s -$1.35, Wednesday’s +$0.34 after Tuesday’s -$0.75),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$1.05),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.98 after Thursday’s -$0.63, Wednesday’s +$0.91, Tuesday’s +$0.23 and Monday’s +$2.55),
  • Ionis Therapeutics (IONS +$0.80 after Thursday’s -$0.60, Wednesday’s +$0.35, Tuesday’s -$1.40 and Monday’s +$0.78),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.67 after Thursday’s -$0.62, Wednesday’s -$0.44, Tuesday’s +$2.10 after Monday’s +$1.80),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.53 after Thursday’s $0.44)
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.50 after Thursday’s -$0.57),

 

Q2/23 – April

  • Friday closed positive with 25 incliner, 8 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed negative with 8 incliner, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 26 incliner, 9 decliners and 0 flat
  • Tuesday closed negative with 9 incliner, 25 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday closed positive with 26 incliner, 9 decliners and 0 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

TGIF and more – enough for portfolios.

The cell and gene therapy sector is Up, responding to the oversold sirens – after sentiment and conviction slips during the week and the alternating month closes.

Is it time to BUY – NO; wait for after earnings releases and runway (cash positions) “alignment.”

More frequently right than consequentially wrong while investor focus must shift focus to Q1 earnings season i.e., status.

Investors NEED to be hesitant in adding to positions re concerns of upcoming LPS (loss-per-share) metrics.

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …

Friday closed FLAT with 150 shares traded after Thursday closed down -$0.08 with 150 shares traded after Wednesday closed down -$0.05 with 100 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with zero shares traded, Monday’s down of -$0.20 with 3,500 shares traded, Friday +$0.25 with 929 shares traded and last Thursday +$0.10 with 150 shares traded, <3-month average =1,804 shares>

·         Did FINANCING happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL … Beijing, China money? What analysts are following the company? - NONE

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         Notice the new director, Ron Packard, MATCH his background to the new Chairman and CEO – education buddies (different companies each in ed field – independent director?

·         Biggest issue – RELIANCE on Chinese off-shore investment as US investors AVOID this equity – wonder WHY?

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.