April 25, 2023 4:42pm

The worst month in a while as Avrobio (AVRO) experiences its sixteenth (16) session under $1.00 in a row – a Nasdaq delisting candidate <read below>

My guide to 'good news seems to be bad news' and 'bad news is good news; in normal times, no one really questions whether no news is better or actually good

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -344.57 points (-1.02%), the S&P closed DOWN -65.41 points (-1.58%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -238.05 points (-1.98%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes slipped Tuesday as downbeat forecasts exacerbated investor concerns about a slowing U.S. economy, while a plunge in regional First Republic Bank's deposits added to jitters about the health of the banking sector.

Treasury yields skidded amid the negative action. The 10-year yield dipped 11 basis point to 3.34% while the two-year yield plunged 18 basis points to 3.96%, suggesting a flight to safety.

"U.S. stocks are softening after a mixed bag of earnings was accompanied by the return of banking jitters and news that President Biden will run for re-election." <Oanda senior market analyst Edward Moya>

Economic Data Docket: New home sales unexpectedly increased in March despite persistently high mortgage rates. With rates above 7% for a 30-year mortgage, sales still totaled 683,000, an increase of 9.6%, according to seasonally adjusted data from Commerce Department. Economists had been looking for sales of 634,000, which would have equated to a decline of nearly 1% from the February total. The number of homes for sale totaled 432,000, equating to about 7.6 months’ worth of supply.

  • The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 101.3 for April, down from 104 in March, which also was the expected level for April.

 

Tuesday (4/25) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “show me some money, any and more upside. Investors are worried about whether gains can remedy the miserable economic outlook while the roller coaster remains full seated as tech and bank’s earnings drag down our cell and gene therapy universe?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12930

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 10 up/ 23 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 5 up/ 28 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 4/28 and 3 flats

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.92% and the XBI was down -1.51%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +2.50 points or +14.80% at 19.39

 

Closing Down (10 of 28):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.64 after Monday’s -$4.49),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.76 after Monday’s +$1.37),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.65 after Monday’s -$0.93),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$1.21 after Monday’s -$0.37),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.48 after Monday’s -$0.61),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.31 after Monday’s +$0.12),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.30 after Monday’s -$0.87),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.27),
  • Brainstorm cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.27),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.25),

Flat (3):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY)
  • Mesoblast (MESO)

Closing Up (4 of 4):

  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.23 after Monday’s +$0.01),
  • Ionis Therapeutics (IONS +$0.16 after Monday’s -$1.21),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.14),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.01 after Monday’s +$0.03)

 

Q2/23 – April

  • Tuesday closed negative with 4 incliner, 28 decliners and 3 flats
  • Monday closed negative with 10 incliner, 22 decliners and 3 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

More frequently right than consequentially wrong … “The rubber is hitting the road, so those companies have to do quite well to justify it.” What is the “it” – upside as LPS (loss-per-share) numbers facilitate downslides.

Wednesday’s earnings release of Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) should illuminate where share pricing will be going?

WHAT has changed – nothing as “too many factors are calling the ball on share pricing – sentiment, economics, earnings, and I believe the political aspect of the country’s leanings, polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings arguments.”

The cell and gene therapy sector is Up, responding to the oversold sirens – after sentiment and conviction slips during the week and the alternating month closes.

Is it time to BUY – NO; wait for after earnings releases and runway (cash positions) “alignment.”

Investors NEED to be hesitant in adding to positions re concerns of upcoming LPS (loss-per-share) metrics.

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

De-Listing Update: Avrobio (AVRO)

Tuesday dived -$0.015 after Monday closed down -$0.0443 after Friday closed up +$0.08 to $0.95 after Thursday’s -$0.06, Wednesday +$0.026, Tuesday -$0.0245, Monday’s -$0.013 to $0.93, last Friday’s -$0.012, the previous Thursday’s +$0.07, Wednesday’s -$0.06 and Tuesday’s +$0.04 – still under Nasdaq rule of $1.00; after sixteen (16) sessions under the Nasdaq minimum?

·         Doesn’t seem that CEO Geoff MacKay can garner support to forestall de-listing for the second time in months?

·         When is the Nasdaq letter due or has it come and NOT been disseminated to investors?

·         Yet another coverup?
 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …

Tuesday closed FLAT with only 15 shares traded after Monday closed down -$0.07 with 600 shares traded, Friday closed FLAT with 150 shares traded, Thursday closed down -$0.08 with 150 shares traded, Wednesday closed down -$0.05 with 100 shares traded and last Tuesday closed flat with zero shares traded, <3-month average =1,732 shares>

·         Did FINANCING happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL … Beijing, China money? What U.S. I-Bank analysts are following the company? - NONE

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         Biggest issue – RELIANCE on Chinese off-shore investment as US investors AVOID this equity – wonder WHY?

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.