April 26, 2023 4:43pm

The reaction to no action, cell and gene therapy sector dived yet, again

My guide to 'good news seems to be bad news' and 'bad news is good news; in normal times, no one really questions whether no news is better or actually good

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 6 Miss

Delisting Update: Avrobio (AVRO) closed up +$0.005 to $0.89, in its seventeen (17) sessions under the Nasdaq minimum of $1.00?

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -228.96 points (-0.68%), the S&P closed DOWN -15.64 points (-0.38%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +55.19 points (+0.47%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes were mixed (the Dow and S&P were down) while the Nasdaq was up.

Key factor, “Earnings have NOT been enough to catalyze the market higher.” <Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird>

It’s shaping up to be an ugly April for the Nasdaq, as it clings above a key market level, its 50-day moving average level of 11,785.97. The 50-day moving average is a technical indicator, and when a security or an index closes below it, that suggests a downward trend. The Nasdaq hasn’t slipped below this key threshold since March 16.

  • Month to date, the Nasdaq is off by nearly 3.5%. However, it still has a comfortable buffer: The index is up 12.7% in 2023 as the tech sector enjoyed a resurgence to begin the year. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: Demand for long-lasting goods like appliances and computers was higher than economists expected in March, according to data released, in a sign that the economy is showing resilience.

 

Wednesday (4/26) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “Uncle algorithm coming to rescue the oversold? A bounce is needed and due” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12932

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 25 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 14 up/ 19 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 13/19 and 3 flats

 

Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits < Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.07), uniQure NV (QURE -$0.14)> and 6 Miss <AxoGen (AXGN -$0.06), BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.16), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.04), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.13), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.34), Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.35), 

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Wednesday, the IBB was down -1.35% and the XBI was down -0.82%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Wednesday was up +0.42 points or +2.24% at 19.18

 

Closing Down (10 of 19):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$4.63 after Tuesday’s -$2.64 and Monday’s -$4.49),
  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.22 after Tuesday’s $0.00)
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.78 after Tuesday’s -$1.65 and Monday’s -$0.93),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.52),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.34 after Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Mesoblast (MESO -$0.31 after Tuesday’s $0.00)
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.21 after Tuesday’s -$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.12),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.16 after Tuesday’s -$1.21 and Monday’s -$0.37),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.14),
  • Ionis Therapeutics (IONS -$0.13 after Tuesday’s+$0.16 and Monday’s -$1.21),

Flat (3):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
  • Precigen (PGEN)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Closing Up (13 of 13):

  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.48 after Tuesday’s -$1.76 after Monday’s +$1.37),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.85 after Tuesday’s -$0.48 after Monday’s -$0.61),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.35),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.20),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.14 after Tuesday’s -$0.25),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.11),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.30 and Monday’s -$0.87),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.07 after Tuesday’s -$0.27),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI +$0.02 after Tuesday’s -$0.27),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.01 after Tuesday’s +$0.23 and Monday’s +$0.01),
  • Avrobio (AVRO +$0.0050),
  • Verastem (VSTM +$0.0027),
  • Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM +$0.0009)

 

Q2/23 – April

  • Wednesday closed negative with 13 incliner, 19 decliners and 3 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

More frequently right than consequentially wrong … “The rubber is hitting the road, so those companies have to do quite well to justify it.” What is the “it” – upside as LPS (loss-per-share) numbers facilitate downslides.

Wednesday’s earnings release of Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) should illuminate where share pricing will be going?

WHAT has changed – nothing as “too many factors are calling the ball on share pricing – sentiment, economics, earnings, and I believe the political aspect of the country’s leanings, polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings arguments.”

The cell and gene therapy sector is Up, responding to the oversold sirens – after sentiment and conviction slips during the week and the alternating month closes.

Is it time to BUY – NO; wait for after earnings releases and runway (cash positions) “alignment.”

Investors NEED to be hesitant in adding to positions re concerns of upcoming LPS (loss-per-share) metrics.

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

De-Listing Update: Avrobio (AVRO)

Wednesday closed down -$0.0080 after Tuesday dived -$0.015, Monday closed down -$0.0443 after Friday closed up +$0.08 to $0.95 after Thursday’s -$0.06, Wednesday +$0.026, Tuesday -$0.0245, Monday’s -$0.013 to $0.93, last Friday’s -$0.012, the previous Thursday’s +$0.07, Wednesday’s -$0.06 and Tuesday’s +$0.04 – still under Nasdaq rule of $1.00; after seventeen (17) sessions under the Nasdaq minimum?

·         Doesn’t seem that CEO Geoff MacKay can garner support to forestall de-listing for the second time in months?

·         When is the Nasdaq letter due or has it come and NOT been disseminated to investors?

·         Yet another inability to manage expectation?
 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …

Wednesday closed flat again with 27 shares traded after Tuesday closed FLAT with only 15 shares traded after Monday closed down -$0.07 with 600 shares traded, Friday closed FLAT with 150 shares traded, Thursday closed down -$0.08 with 150 shares traded, Wednesday closed down -$0.05 with 100 shares traded and last Tuesday closed flat with zero shares traded, <3-month average =1,732 shares>

·         Did FINANCING happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL … Beijing, China money? What U.S. I-Bank analysts are following the company? - NONE

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         Biggest issue – RELIANCE on Chinese off-shore investment as US investors AVOID this equity – wonder WHY?

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.