April 27, 2023 4:45pm

Maybe Uncles algorithms came to visit have left in a mood in recent visits

Pre-Open Indications: 6 Hits and 3 Miss

News: Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.13) the FDA granted Orphan Drug Designation to EDIT-301, an investigational, gene editing medicine, for the treatment of sickle cell disease.

I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!  

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed UP +524.79 points (+1.58%), the S&P closed UP +79.46 points (+1.96%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +287.99 points (+2.43%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes jumped on Thursday, boosted by tech, airlines and communication services earnings as investors absorbed the latest data on the U.S. economy.

“The market was waiting with bated breath for big Tech. Across the board, it hasn’t disappointed, and the market needed that.” <Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial>

“Economic growth is slowing down, as the effect of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases, which are meant to reduce inflation by lowering demand, flows through the economy. Consumer spending was fairly strong in the GDP report, but private inventory investment dipped, as businesses are preparing for a weakening consumer looking forward.” <Barron’s>

Economic Data Docket: GDP data showed less economic growth than expected. The U.S. economy grew 1.1% in Q1, while economists forecasted an expansion of 2%. The report also showed stronger-than-expected inflation, with prices increasing 4% compared with a consensus estimate of 3.7%.

  • A leading indicator for the housing industry provided another piece of bad news. Pending home sales declined 5.2% in March, the first decrease since November 2022, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists had been expecting a 0.5% increase. A 30-year mortgage rate near 7% has provided a substantial impediment to the industry, as has a generally slowing economy and lack of supply.

 

Thursday (4/27) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “plug-in and recharge the sector and show me some upside. After negative breadth has pervaded the cell and gene therapy sector with losers outpacing winners once again. A “bare” aftermarket as the Russell 2000 is below all its moving averages and not that far from six-month lows.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12934

 

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits <Avrobio (AVRO +$0.005), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.46), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.06), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.48), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.50), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.07)> and 3 Miss < Agenus (AGEN -$0.08), AxoGen (AXGN +$0.08), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.39)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 2 flats, popped positive with 23 up/ 11 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 19/13 and 3 flats

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was up +0.36% and the XBI was down -0.73%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -1.80 points or -9.55% at 17.04

 

Closing Down (13 of 13):

  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY -$1.41 after Wednesday’s -$1.22 and Tuesday’s $0.00)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.48 after Wednesday’s -$4.63, Tuesday’s -$2.64 and Monday’s -$4.49)
  • Ionis Therapeutics (IONS -$0.50 after Wednesday’s -$0.13, Tuesday’s+$0.16 and Monday’s -$1.21),
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.37 after Wednesday’s -$0.14),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.36 after Wednesday’s -$0.16, Tuesday’s -$1.21 and Monday’s -$0.37),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.16),
  • Agenus (AGEN -$0.08),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.08),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.07 after Wednesday’s +$0.09, Tuesday’s -$0.30 and Monday’s -$0.87),
  • Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU -$0.07),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.05 after Wednesday’s +$0.11),
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.0112),

Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.01)

Flat (3):

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
  • bluebird bio (BLUE)
  • Mesoblast (MESO)

Closing Up (10 of 19):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.46 after Wednesday’s -$0.78, Tuesday’s -$1.65 and Monday’s -$0.93),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.40 after Wednesday’s +$0.35),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.39 after Wednesday’s -$0.34 and Tuesday’s +$0.14),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.25 after Wednesday’s -$0.52),
  • Vericel (VCEL +$0.20 after Wednesday’s +$0.85, Tuesday’s -$0.48 after Monday’s -$0.61),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.15 after Wednesday’s +$0.14 and Tuesday’s -$0.25),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.13 after Wednesday’s +$0.48, Tuesday’s -$1.76 and Monday’s +$1.37),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.12 after Wednesday’s +$0.20),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.10),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX +$0.10 after Wednesday’s +$0.07 and Tuesday’s -$0.27),

 

Q2/23 – April

  • Thursday closed positive with 19 incliner, 13 decliners and 3 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

More frequently right than consequentially wrong … “The rubber is hitting the road, so those companies have to do quite well to justify it.” What is the “it” –the LPS (loss-per-share) numbers facilitate downslides.

Earnings: Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) could NOT recognize their quarterly numbers of net loss and per share loss but could identify its cash position – NOT quite the bell weather for the sector as even preliminary numbers were NOT available – WRONG measure of defining expectation!

Reiterating, “I was extremely tentative about the performance of our universe as we awaited the first showing (Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) of earnings season – and NOTHING came out as MY prejudice (as to words in title) one again those who shows who NEGLECT to "totally" inform shareholders.”

WHAT has changed – nothing as “too many factors are calling the ball on share pricing – sentiment, economics, earnings, and I believe the political aspect of the country’s leanings, polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings arguments.”

The cell and gene therapy sector is Up, responding to the oversold sirens – after sentiment and conviction slips during the week and the alternating month closes.

Is it time to BUY – NO; wait for after earnings releases and runway (cash positions) “alignment.”

Investors NEED to be hesitant in adding to positions re concerns of upcoming LPS (loss-per-share) metrics. At ANY time, this week, be ready to take partial profits and exit losers.

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

Remember, there are four (4) phases of the stock cycle: accumulation; markup; distribution; and markdown.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone!

De-Listing Update: Avrobio (AVRO)

Thursday was up +$0.005 after Wednesday closed down -$0.0080 after Tuesday dived -$0.015, Monday closed down -$0.0443 after Friday closed up +$0.08 to $0.95 after Thursday’s -$0.06, Wednesday +$0.026, Tuesday -$0.0245, Monday’s -$0.013 to $0.93, last Friday’s -$0.012, the previous Thursday’s +$0.07, Wednesday’s -$0.06 and Tuesday’s +$0.04 – still under Nasdaq rule of $1.00; after eighteenth (18) sessions under the Nasdaq minimum?

·         Doesn’t seem that CEO Geoff MacKay can garner support to forestall de-listing for the second time in months?

·         When is the Nasdaq letter due or has it come and NOT been disseminated to investors?

·          Yet another inability to manage expectation?
 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …

Thursday closed flat with 0 shares traded after Wednesday closed flat again with 27 shares traded after Tuesday closed FLAT with only 15 shares traded after Monday closed down -$0.07 with 600 shares traded, Friday closed FLAT with 150 shares traded and last Thursday closed down -$0.08 with 150 shares traded <3-month average =1,667 shares>

·         Did FINANCING happen with US investors – NO mention, possibly ALL … Beijing, China money? What U.S. I-Bank analysts are following the company? - NONE

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold??

·         Biggest issue – RELIANCE on Chinese off-shore investment as US investors AVOID this equity – wonder WHY?

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.