May 3, 2023 4:49pm
Sentiment is often driven by an algorithm; when sentiment readings are unusually high or low, they may begin acting in a diffident and contrarian way
Pre-Open Indications: 1 Hit and 2 Miss
I write this blog/newsletter to inform investors with facts and supporting numbers focused on what they need to hear that others will not say or write about - truth!
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
Maintaining, "Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!"
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -270.29 points (+0.80%), the S&P closed DOWN -28.83 points (-0.70%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -55.18 points (-0.46%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.
Indexes fell on Wednesday after the Fed rate-hiked.
After raising the target range for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, the Fed left its options open for June, saying future rate hikes would be dependent on the impact of previous rate hikes on the economy.
Economic Data Docket: Private payrolls rose by 296,000 for April, above the downwardly revised 142,000 the previous month and well ahead of the estimate for 133,000. The fastest job growth in April came in leisure and hospitality with a gain of 154,000, followed by education and health services (69,000) and construction (53,000). The financial sector lost 28,000 jobs for the month. Manufacturing also took a hit, losing 38,000 jobs.
Wednesday (5/3) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “the cell and gene therapy sector is in pain and it doesn’t seem to be getting better. 2 p.m. Fed monetary policy decision will not to cure any ills as sentiment seems antimicrobial resistant.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12942
Pre-Open Indications: 1 Hit <MiMedx (MDXG +$1.50)> and 2 Miss < Mesoblast (MESO +$0.24 while debt increases effects cash position by ATM utilization), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.82)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 29 up/ 4 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 31 up/ 3 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 31/3 and 1 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.67% and the XBI was up +4.36%
- Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.32% and the XBI was down -2.88%
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.79% and the XBI was up +2.42%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was up +0.56 points or +3.15% at 18.34
- Tuesday was up +1.69 points or +10.51% at 17.77
- Monday was up +0.29 points or +1.84% at 16.07
Closing Down (3 of 3):
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.79),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.05),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.04),
Flat (1):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)
Closing Up (10 of 31):
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$1.91 after Tuesday’s -$3.09 and Monday’s -$0.43),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.58 after Tuesday’s -$0.74 and Monday’s -$0.01)
- MiMedx (MDXG +$1.50),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$1.48),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.14 after Tuesday’s -$1.03),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.90 after Tuesday’s -$0.79),
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$0.82 after Tuesday’s -$1.52 and Monday’s +$0.36),
- Vericel (VCEL+$0.79 after Tuesday’s -$0.89 and Monday’s +$0.71),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.77),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -+$0.74 after Tuesday’s $0.61 and Monday’s +$0.74),
Q2/23 – May
- Wednesday closed positive with 31 incliners, 3 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
I MAINTAIN my recommendation in Monday night’s post, “Skim if you can trim, buy if it will fly and sell if compelled!”
Have you asked yourself, do you know why you own certain equity? What’s been communicated re a company’s status at any given time to shareholders other than quarterly reports or a once-upon-a-time press release!
There are clear winners — and losers — at the start of May. The top three performing are:
· Wednesday - Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and MiMedx (MDXG)
· Tuesday – Mesoblast (MESO), uniQure NV (QURE) and Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
· Monday’s: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Regenxbio (RGNX).
While The worst three (3):
· Wednesday – Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), bluebird bio (BLUE) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)
· Tuesday - Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) – again, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Ultragenyx (RARE)
· Monday’s: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY). Avrobio (AVRO),
Percentage moves:
· Upside: +0.23% to -39.37%
· Downside: -1.21% to -2.92% (3)
Earnings:
Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) could NOT recognize their quarterly numbers of net loss and per share loss but could identify its cash position – NOT quite the bell weather for the sector as even preliminary numbers were NOT available – WRONG measure of defining expectation!
Mesoblast (MESO) Q3/23 NO Q (even in SEC filed 6K) information while reporting $48.8 M in cash with an additional debt financing in place.
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) reported a Q/23 net loss of -$146.8 M, a share pricing loss of -$2.46 with a cash position of $1.1 B and a runway until 2025
MiMedx (MDXG) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$5 M, a share pricing loss of -$0.06 with a cash position of $61.2 M and a runway until 2025
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) reported a Q1 net loss of -$124 M or -$0.87 per share with a cash position of $2.3 B and a runway to 2026
Regenxbio (RGNX) reported a Q1/23 net loss of -$66.7 M or -$1.53 per shares with a cash position of $473.5 M and runway until 2025
Fate therapeutics (FATE) reported a Q1 net loss of -$18.8 m or -$0.19 per share with a cash position of $412.8 M (receivables of $13.5 M) and a runway until of 2025
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
De-Listing Update:
Avrobio (AVRO) – Wednesday closed up +$0.01 to $0.66 after Tuesday’s Tuesday closed down-$0.168 to $0.65 after Monday closed down -$0.01596 to $0.83 after CEO Geoff MacKay resigned; still under Nasdaq minimum rule of $1.00; after twenty-two (22) sessions
· Will AVRO do a reverse split to up-end delisting to “SCREW” shareholders yet, AGAIN?
Verastem Oncology (VSTM) closed up +$0.005 to $0.44 on Wednesday after Tuesday’s -$0.0070 after Monday’s -$0.075; two hundredth (200) sessions under the Nasdaq $1.00 minimum pricing
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …
· Wednesday closed FLAT with 26 shares traded after Tuesday closed FLAT with 0 shares traded Monday closed FLAT with 0 shares traded after Friday closed FLAT with 0 shares traded, Thursday closed flat with 0 shares traded and last Wednesday closed flat with 27 shares <3-month average =1,613 shares>
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
