May 18, 2023 4:43pm
Sentiment, economics, conviction post earnings, and I believe the political aspect of the country’s leanings, polarization, and the elephant in the room - debt ceiling negotiations
News: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) the FDA has agreed to a protocol amendment, after review, of the P1/2 study of GTX-102 in pediatric patients with Angelman syndrome, a rare neurogenetic disorder. This ruling by the regulatory body will enable RARE to harmonize dose ranges in the United States with those being used in study cohorts outside the U.S. RARE has reportedly been actively enrolling and dosing patients in the expansion cohorts to verify the GTX-102 dose and treatment regimen to be used in the subsequent P3 program.
Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hits and 2 Miss
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing.
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +115.14 points (+0.34%), the S&P closed UP +39.28 points (+0.94%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +188.27 points (+1.51%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.
Indexes were mixed on Thursday afternoon as investors await updates to the ongoing debt ceiling debate.
Financial markets have been obsessing about the state of debt ceiling negotiation
Economic Data Docket: The Conference Board’s leading economic index declined 0.6% in April, signaling more deterioration in the U.S. economic picture. Though the index, fell in line with estimates, it still was indicative of a slowing growth picture and a potential recession ahead.
- Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined last week, indicating the labor market still has some tightness. First-time filings for the week ended May 13 totaled 242,000, a drop of 22,000 from the previous week and below the estimate for 250,000, the Labor Department reported. Continuing claims nudged lower to 1.799 million, against the FactSet estimate for 1.829 million.
- The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s manufacturing index for the region rose to -10.4, an increase of 29 percentage points and better than the estimate for -20.
Thursday (5/18) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “If you're buying into strength, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship. “Our” universe has oscillated between gains and losses since the first of 2023!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12965
Pre-Open Indications: 2 Hits < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.07), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.09)> and 2 Miss < Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.77), Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.14)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 29 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 3 up/ 31 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9/24 and 2 flats
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was down -0.28% and the XBI was down -1.21%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was down -0.69 points or -4.09% at 16.18
Closing Down (10 of 24):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$3.36 after Wednesday’s +$2.26, Tuesday’s -$15.23 and Monday’s +$0.84),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.96 after Wednesday’s +$2.71, Tuesday’s -$4.25 and Monday’s +$2.05),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.84),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.80 after Wednesday’s -$0.36, Tuesday’s -$1.99 and Monday’s +$2.38),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.80 after Wednesday’s +$0.52),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.50 after Wednesday’s +$0.62 and Tuesday’s -$1.30),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.19),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.18 after Wednesday’s -$0.03),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.17 after Wednesday’s +$1.68 and Tuesday’s +$0.78),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.14),
Flat (2);
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG FLAT after Wednesday’s -$0.30, Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s +$0.32)
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI)
Closing Up (9 of 9):
- Ultragenyx (RARE +$1.77 after Wednesday’s +$2.46, Tuesday’s -$2.33 and Monday’s +$1.92),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.33),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.25 after Wednesday’s +$0.66, Tuesday’s +$0.97 and Monday’s -$0.04),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.16 after Wednesday’s +$0.56, Tuesday’s -$1.66 and Monday’s -$0.22),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.09 after Wednesday’s -$0.20),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.09 after Wednesday’s +$0.86, Tuesday’s -$1.82 and Monday’s +$1.62),
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.03),
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.02),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.01),
Q2/23 – May
- Thursday closed negative with 9 incliners, 24 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
“The BIGGEST risk to the economy – the clock is ticking for a divided U.S. Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling, which currently stands at over $31 trillion but risks running out of cash as soon as June 1.
As I have stated, “The cell and gene therapy sector is experiencing yet another “flight of Icarus” … since “our” universe have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of 2023!”
There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying into this rally … I would be selling into this upside!”
A very appropriate quote, “You don't do well by trying to be right; it is impossible for humans. You do well by figuring out when you're wrong faster than others do.” <Nassim Nicholas Taleb>
There are clear winners — and losers — during May.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
· Thursday: Ultragenyx (RARE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR),
· Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
· Tuesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Mesoblast (MESO)
· Monday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Regenxbio (RGNX)
While The worst three (3) in the session:
· Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
· Wednesday: Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Generation Bio (GBIO)
· Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Ultragenyx (RARE)
· Monday: bluebird bio (BLUE), uniQure NV (QURE) and MiMedx (MDXG)
For the week:
- The S&P 500 is up 73.97 points, or 1.8%.
- The Dow is up 235.29 points, or 0.7%.
- The Nasdaq is up 404.09 points, or 3.3%.
- The Russell 2000 is up 44.01 points, or 2.5%.
For the year:
- The S&P 500 is up 358.55 points, or 9.3%.
- The Dow is up 388.66 points, or 1.2%.
- The Nasdaq is up 2,222.36 points, or 21.2%.
- The Russell 2000 is up 23.61 points, or less than 1.3%.
Earnings:
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12923 -
Sector earnings season have drawn to a close …
· One (1) net income from 34 reported to date:
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …
· Thursday closed FLAT with 1,220 shares traded after Wednesday closed down -$0.31 with 951 shares traded after Tuesday closed flat with 27 shares traded after Monday closed up +$0.32 with 326 shares traded after Friday closed down -$0.21 with 3,430 shares traded and last Thursday closed FLAT with 50 shares traded <3-month average =1,470 shares>
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?
· Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) issued a 10-Q (late Friday), reporting a Q1/23 net loss of -$2.89 M or -$0.24 per share with a cash position of $3,369 M and a runway until Q4/2023:
· Accumulated deficit: $85,901 M – still NO product in sight!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
