May 19, 2023 4:41pm

The top debt ceiling negotiator (Garret Graves, R-La.) for House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Friday it was time to “press pause” on talks as negotiations with the White House which came to an abrupt standstill. Negotiations have become “just unreasonable” and that it was unclear when talks would resume. Another Republican negotiator, Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina, said, “There is a “serious gap” between the sides.

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Week in review - TGIF

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -109.28 points (-0.33%), the S&P closed DOWN -6.07 points (-0.14%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -30.94 points (-0.24%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Indexes were trading better as in the early hours of today’s trading day, however, they dived mid-day Friday after the ongoing debt ceiling “talks” in Washington hit a stalling point.

For the week, the Dow is up 0.4%, the S&P 500 is up 1.7% while the Nasdaq has risen 3.1%. That would also its best weekly performance since March.

 

Friday (5/19) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “who and what can be trusted re debt ceiling. Don’t rule out nasty debt ceiling arguments and their result of a possible default as nearly every House (210) Democrats have endorsed an effort to make an end run around House Speaker McCarthy and bring a clean debt ceiling increase forward for a vote that doesn't include spending cuts for the federal government.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12967

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 23 up/ 10 down and 2 flats, stayed positive with 22 up/ 12 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20/13 and 2 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 29 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 3 up/ 31 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 9/24 and 2 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 26 down and 4 flats, stayed negative with 15 up/ 18 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 9/24 and 2 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 27 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 7 up/ 27 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 6/28 and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 23 up/ 8 down and 4 flats, stayed positive with 29 up/ 6 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 28/6 and 1 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.86% and the XBI was up +0.89%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.28% and the XBI was down -1.21%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.22% and the XBI was up +0.83%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -2.05% and the XBI was down -2.92%
  • Monday, the IBB was up +1.20% and the XBI was up +2.50%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.66 points or +4.11% at 16.71
  • Thursday was down -0.69 points or -4.09% at 16.18
  • Wednesday was down -1.12 points or -6.23% at 16.87
  • Tuesday was up +1 point or +5.84% at 18.12
  • Monday was up +0.22 points or +1.29% at 17.25

 

Closing Down (10 of 13):

  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.32 after Thursday’s -$0.96, Wednesday’s +$2.71, Tuesday’s -$4.25 and Monday’s +$2.05),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1.02 after Thursday’s +$1.77, Wednesday’s +$2.46, Tuesday’s -$2.33 and Monday’s +$1.92),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.94 and Thursday’s -$0.84),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.44 after Thursday’s +$0.09 and Wednesday’s -$0.20),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.35 after Thursday’s -$0.17, Wednesday’s +$1.68 and Tuesday’s +$0.78),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.35),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.10 and Thursday’s -$0.19),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.05),
  • Chinook therapeutics (KDNY -$0.05),
  • bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.04),

Flat (2);

  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG Friday’s FLAT after Thursday’s FLAT, Wednesday’s -$0.30, Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s +$0.32)
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Closing Up (10 of 20):

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$2.56 and Thursday’s +$0.33),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$1.48 after Thursday’s -$0.80, Wednesday’s -$0.36, Tuesday’s -$1.99 and Monday’s +$2.38),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.90 after Thursday’s +$0.25, Wednesday’s +$0.66, Tuesday’s +$0.97 and Monday’s -$0.04),
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.87 after Thursday’s -$3.36, Wednesday’s +$2.26, Tuesday’s -$15.23 and Monday’s +$0.84),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.84 after Thursday’s +$0.03),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.78 after Thursday’s -$0.50, Wednesday’s +$0.62 and Tuesday’s -$1.30),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.60 after Thursday’s -$0.09, Wednesday’s +$0.86, Tuesday’s -$1.82 and Monday’s +$1.62),
  • uniQure NV (QURE +$0.55 after Thursday’s +$0.16, Wednesday’s +$0.56, Tuesday’s -$1.66 and Monday’s -$0.22),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.40 after Thursday’s -$0.80 and Wednesday’s +$0.52),
  • MiMedx (MDXG +$0.14),

 

Q2/23 – May

  • Friday closed positive with 20 incliners, 13 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday closed negative with 9 incliners, 24 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flats
  • Tuesday closed negative with 6 incliner, 28 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

“The BIGGEST risk to the economy – the clock is ticking for a divided U.S. Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling, which currently stands at over $31 trillion but risks running out of cash as soon as June 1.

“Debt-ceiling negotiations are a lose-lose for equity investors at this point, as a failure to strike a deal will lead to an immediate recession, while a deal will strain liquidity from markets as the US Treasury issues trillions in new bonds, which are newly born.” <Jose Torres, Interactive Brokers>

·         3:30 p.m.; Republican negotiators have stormed out of crunch talks to raise America's debt ceiling as they branded Democrat demands “unreasonable”, throwing fresh doubt on a deal to avoid default.

 

As I have stated, “The cell and gene therapy sector is experiencing yet another “flight of Icarus” …  since “our” universe have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of 2023!”

 

Some GOOD news: The FDA today approved Krystal Biotech (KRYS +$7.45 to $94.92) topical gene therapy for patients with a genetic skin disorder, making it the first-of-its kind treatment for epidermolysis bullosa.

  • The therapy, Vyjuvek, has been approved for the treatment of dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa, a rare and severe genetic disease that usually presents at birth.
  • Patients with the disease suffer from open wounds, causing skin infections and are at an increased risk of vision loss, scarring and even lead to skin cancer that can be fatal. Most affected patients rarely survive beyond 30 years of age. The company estimates around 9,000-10,000 people suffer from the skin disorder globally, including a U.S. population of about 3,000 bearing the brunt of the disorder's recessive and the dominant forms.

 

There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying into this rally … I would be selling into this upside!”

A very appropriate quote, “You don't do well by trying to be right; it is impossible for humans. You do well by figuring out when you're wrong faster than others do.” <Nassim Nicholas Taleb>

 

There are clear winners — and losers — at the start of May.

The top three (3) performing in the session:

·         Friday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR)

·         Thursday: Ultragenyx (RARE), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR),

·         Wednesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)

·         Tuesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Mesoblast (MESO)

·         Monday: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

While The worst three (3) in the session:

·         Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

·         Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

·         Wednesday: Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Regenxbio (RGNX) and Generation Bio (GBIO)

·         Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Ultragenyx (RARE)

·         Monday: bluebird bio (BLUE), uniQure NV (QURE) and MiMedx (MDXG)

 

Earnings:

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12923  -

Sector earnings season have drawn to a close …

·         One (1) net income from 34 reported to date:

 

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …

·         Friday closed FLAT with 23 shares traded after Thursday closed FLAT with 1,220 shares traded, Wednesday closed down -$0.31 with 951 shares traded, Tuesday closed flat with 27 shares traded, Monday closed up +$0.32 with 326 shares traded and last Friday closed down -$0.21 with 3,430 shares traded <3-month average =1,466 shares>

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?

·         Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) issued a 10-Q (late Friday), reporting a Q1/23 net loss of -$2.89 M or -$0.24 per share with a cash position of $3,369 M and a runway until Q4/2023:

·         Accumulated deficit:  $85,901 M – still NO product in sight!

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.