May 25, 2023 4:42pm
The take-away, don’t dwell on what’s happened but, learn the lesson of timing; if one had listened to me at week’s beginning, losses would have been profits
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing.
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements, questioning pricing targets and just plain common sense with an ability to recognize patterns.
The Dow closed DOWN -35.20 points (-0.11%), the S&P closed UP +36.07 points (+0.88%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +213.93points (+1.71%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.
Indexes are up after a Nvidia (NVDA) earnings as debt ceiling “talks” stay vocal.
“What you’re seeing today is an extension of the existing trends being magnified even more with this news from Nvidia,” he said. “It’s a tale of two markets, and the winners are extending the lead and the losers are extending their losses on a relative basis.”
“The focus is on the deal, but it’s not about the deal. It’s about the vote. While our baseline assumption is consistent with most market players that a deal will be ratified, we think that the risk of a problem with the vote is higher than the market is giving credit to right now.” < Matthew Brenner, VP investments and product management at Mission Square Retirement>
Economic Data Docket: The U.S. economy grew more than previously thought in the first quarter, according to a revision Thursday from the Commerce Department. Gross domestic product from January through March rose at a 1.3% annualized pace, 0.2 percentage point above the first estimate. Economists had been expecting a 1.1% reading.
· Also, economic activity in the U.S. expanded further in April, according to a gauge from the Chicago Federal Reserve. The National Activity Index rose to 0.07, from -0.37 in March. A reading above -0.35 is considered a sign of expansion.
· Boston Fed President Susan Collins thinks the central bank where it stop increasing interest rates.
Thursday (5/25) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “what’s the plan? Debt ceiling negotiations continued to weigh on the major averages and consequences could be serious if NOT resolved.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12975
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 3 up/ 31 down and 1 flat, stayed negative with 5 up/ 30 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 6/29 and 0 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was down -1.89% and the XBI was down -2.66%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was down -1 point or -4.99% at 19.03
Closing Down (10 of 29):
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.69 after Tuesday’s -$0.94 and Monday’s +$2.37),
- Blueprint Medicines (BPMC -$),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.80 after Tuesday’s -$0.94),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$1.00 after Tuesday’s +$1.57 and Monday’s +$1.52),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.32 after Tuesday’s +$1.40 and Monday’s +$3.67),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.75 after Tuesday’s -$0.14),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.76 after Tuesday’s +$0.65 and Monday’s -$2.01),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$1.13 after Tuesday’s -$0.64),
- Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$1.15 after Wednesday's +$0.72 after Tuesday’s -$1.48 and Monday’s +$0.68),
- uniQure NV (QURE -0.78),
Closing Up (6 of 6):
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.27 and Wednesday’s -$0.95),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.08 after Wednesday’s -$5.91 and Tuesday’s -$2.23 and Monday’s +$2.32),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.066),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.06),
- Chinook therapeutics (KDNY +$0.05),
- Agenus (AGEN +$0.01),
Q2/23 – May
- Thursday closed negative with 6 incliners, 29 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
I have been warning for days that a HIT was coming to share pricing … “when fear takes over, investors tend to sell first and ask questions second — and that’s what we are seeing,”
Reiterating, “Debt-ceiling negotiations are a lose-lose for equity investors at this point, as a failure to strike a deal will lead to an immediate recession, while a deal will strain liquidity from markets as the US Treasury issues trillions in new bonds, which are newly born.” <Jose Torres, Interactive Brokers>
It ain’t over …
As I have stated, “The cell and gene therapy sector is experiencing yet another “flight of Icarus” … since “our” universe have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of 2023!”
There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying into this rally … I would be selling into this upside!”
A very appropriate quote, “You don't do well by trying to be right; it is impossible for humans. You do well by figuring out when you're wrong faster than others do.” <Nassim Nicholas Taleb>
There are clear winners — and losers — at the start of May.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
· Thursday: Prime Medicines (PRME), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
· Wednesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and MiMedx (MDXG)
· Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
· Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
While The worst three (3) in the session:
· Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Sage therapeutics (SAGE)
· Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) and Ultragenyx (RARE)
· Tuesday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
· Monday: uniQure NV (QURE), AxoGen (AXGN) and Generation Bio (GBIO),
Earnings:
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12923 -
Sector earnings season have drawn to a close …
· One (1) net income from 34 reported to date:
· Mesoblast (MESO) reports 5/25 - Thursday
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) …
· Thursday closed down -$0.40 with 3,913 shares traded after Wednesday closed down -$0.11 with 2,070 shares traded, Tuesday closed up +$0.04 with 110 shares traded, Monday closed FLAT after Friday closed FLAT with 23 shares traded, and last Thursday closed FLAT with 1,220 shares traded <3-month average =1,467 shares>
· Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?
· Accumulated deficit: $85,901 M – still NO product in sight!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
