May 30, 2023 5:08pm

Sector equities drifted after the debt ceiling “deal” in Washington did not set off any celebration; obstacles remain on the path to passage

Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits and 0 Miss

If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing.

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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

 

The Dow closed DOWN -50.56 points (-0.15%), the S&P closed UP +0.08 points (+0.00%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +41.74 points (+0.32%)

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies.

Monday was a market holiday. Tuesday closed mixed as debt ceiling negotiations are far from over despite the tentative agreement, obstacles remain on the path to passage for the compromise bill in the House amid growing opposition within the GOP.

An appropriate quote, “Markets climb walls of worry at the end of the day, and the debt ceiling is obviously some type of worry,” said Chris Barto, investment analyst at Fort Pitt Capital. “But I think the market is kind of pricing in some sort of deal does get done.” – It ain’t done, the fight will be on-going!

Economic Data Docket: Consumer confidence declined in May - the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index came in above expectations for May, with a reading of 102.3. Economists expected a print of 99. To be sure, that’s still down from a revised April reading of 103.7.

  • Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also said at National Association of Business Economics event Tuesday that he hasn’t “backed off” from his rate forecast, which he said is among the higher ones within the central bank.

 

Tuesday (5/30) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “expect the expected. Challenges ahead to the acceptance and final ratification of the debt ceiling “deal.” Many right and left-wing lawmakers will oppose the legislation, so congressional leaders and the White House are pushing the rank-and-file hard to secure passage. A House vote is expected Wednesday, with the Senate acting soon anticipating a rocky road as even Senator Lindsey Graham and presidential candidate DeSantis knock the “deal.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12979

Friday (5/27) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “merry-go-round or roller coaster, volatility adds to liquidity issues as algorithms dumped into the downside movement. Stay “frosty,” debt ceiling negotiations have weighed on market sentiment this week; what about next week if NO deal? I am concerned Dems reuse to budge with a lack of accord!” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12978

 

Pre-open Indications: 4 Hits < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.34), Mesoblast (MESO -$0.15), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.63), Vericel (VCEL -$0.67)> and 0 Miss

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 27 up/ 6 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 5 up/ 29 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 7/26 and 2 flats
  • Monday was a market holiday.
  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 24 up/ 10 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 23 up/ 8 down and 4 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 27/8 and 0 flat

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.72% and the XBI was down -1.28%
  • Monday - holiday
  • Friday, the IBB was up +0.20% and the XBI was up +0.91%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Tuesday was up +0.19 points or +1.09% at 17.65
  • Monday -
  • Friday was down -1.19 point or -6.22% at 17.95

 

Closing Down (10 of 26):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$1.80 after monday and Friday's +$2.16
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$1.43 after Monday and Friday's -$0.24 ),
  • Ultragenyx (RARE -$1,42 after Monday and Friday's -$0.09),
  • Blueprint Medicines (BPMC -$1.34 after monday and Friday's +$3.47)
  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.70 after Monday and Friday's -$0.06 
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.66),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.63 after Monday and Friday's +$1.08 ),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.61 after Monday and Friday's +$0.61),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.47 after Monday and Friday's +$0.16 ),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.40),

Closing Up (7 of 7):

  • Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$0.94 after Monday and Friday's +$1.75),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.86),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.16),
  • Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM +$0.12),
  • Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.07),
  • Precigen (PGEN +$0.01),
  • Agenus (AGEN =$0.01$

 

 

  •  after Thursday’s +$0.08, Wednesday’s -$5.91 and Tuesday’s -$2.23 and Monday’s +$2.32),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$1.57 after Thursday’s -$1.00),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.81 after Thursday’s -$1.32),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.18),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.16)
  • uniQure NV (QURE -$0.17 after Thursday’s -$0.78),
  • Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG -$0.15),
  • Sangamo therapeutics (SGMO -$0.07),
  • Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.04),
  • AxoGen (AXGN -$0.02)

 

Q2/23 – May

  • Tuesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats
  • Monday - Holiday

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

I have been warning for days that a HIT was coming to share pricing … “when fear takes over, investors tend to sell first and ask questions second — and that’s what we are seeing,”

Reiterating, “Debt-ceiling negotiations are a lose-lose for equity investors at this point, as a failure to strike a deal will lead to an immediate recession, while a deal will strain liquidity from markets as the US Treasury issues trillions in new bonds, which are newly born.” <Jose Torres, Interactive Brokers>

It ain’t over …

As I have stated, “The cell and gene therapy sector is experiencing yet another “flight of Icarus” …  since “our” universe have oscillated between gains and losses since the first of 2023!”

There is VALUE out there however, it’s about playing or betting the timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying into this rally … I would be selling into this upside!”

The top three (3) performing in the session:

·         Tuesday: Chinook therapeutics (KDNY), BioLife solutions (BLFS) and Prime Medicine (PRME)

·         Monday - holiday

·         Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again and Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY)

While The worst three (3) in the session:

·         Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) – again and Ultragenyx (RARE)

·         Monday - holiday

·         Friday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) – again, uniQure NV (QURE) and Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG)

Earnings:

RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q1/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12923  -

Sector earnings season have drawn to a close …

·         One (1) net income from 35 reported to date

·         Mesoblast (MESO) reported Q3/ 23 on Friday a net loss of -$18.6 M or -$2.53 per share with a cash position of $48.8 M and a runway until Q2/24

WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …

 

Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … minimizing the downdraft by volume purchases!!

·         Tuesday closed down -$0.13 with 2,718 shares traded after Monday’s holiday as Friday closed down -$0.15 with 341 shares traded, Thursday closed down -$0.40 with 3,913 shares traded, Wednesday closed down -$0.11 with 2,070 shares traded and last Tuesday closed up +$0.04 with 110 shares traded, <3-month average =1,438 shares>

·         Question: Review the number of shares traded … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?

·         Accumulated deficit:  $85,901 M – still NO product in sight!

 

My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments …  leash?

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.