June 12, 2023 4:41pm
A maybe – the Fed could skip a rate hike this week
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 1 Miss
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; it is that your life and your portfolio are largely tied to your knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +189.55 points (+0.56%), the S&P closed UP +40.08 points (+0.93%) while the Nasdaq closed UP +202.78 points (+1.53%)
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes were jumping on Monday to the highest in 13 months as traders hoped the Fed will skip/side-step hiking rates when the central bank decides on policy Wednesday.
Tuesday’s inflation data COULD help reinforce the case that inflation is subsiding, as economists expect the consumer price index to show inflation dropping to a 4% annual rate in May; that’s down -4.9% in the prior month.
That low volume underscores the typical calm-before-the-storm period seen early in weeks with a Fed meeting on the docket. Investors will watch Wednesday’s announcement and press conference for any changes to the path of interest rate hikes and commentary from Fed Chair Powell around the state of the economy and future monetary policy. <CNBC>
Monday (6/12) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) pre-open: “a prayer answered – a takeout of a sector principal and a bada bing Monday. Traders are eyeing key inflation data and Fed meeting decisions.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/12997
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hit <Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$13.99), Blueprint Medicines (BPMC -$0.84), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.8)> and 1 Miss < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.34)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 26 up/ 7 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 22 up/ 12 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 21/11 and 3 flat
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 17 up/ 15 down and 3 flats, flipped negative with 11 up/ 23 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 14/20 and 1 flat
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.80% and the XBI was up +1.10%
- Friday, the IBB was down -0.15% and the XBI was down -0.53%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was up +1 point or +7.23% at 14.83
- Friday was up +0.09 point or +0.66% at 13.74
Closing Down (11 of 11):
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$1.88 after Friday’s +$2.84),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.34 after Friday’s -$1.35),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.84 after Friday’s +$1.86),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.82 after Friday’s +$1.11),
- UniQure NV (QURE -$0.40 after Friday’s -$1.18)
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.17),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.16 after Friday’s -$0.28),
- bluebird bio (BLUE -$0.15),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.05),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.03 after Friday’s +$0.09),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.012)
Flat (3):
- Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG
- Homology Medicine (FIXX)
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB)
Closing Up (10 of 21):
- Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY +$13.99 after Friday’s +$0.04),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.26 after Friday’s +$0.40,),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$1.32 after Friday’s -$0.59),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.98 after Friday’s -$1.00),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.77 after Friday’s -$1.24),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.37),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.54),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.35),
- Generation BIO (GBIO +$0.31 after Friday’s +$0.01),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.26 after Friday’s +$0.07),
Q2/23 – June
- Monday closed positive with 21 incliners, 11 decliners and 3 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
The title says it all, an acquisition and positive clinical data stemmed the decline of the sector on Monday.
Investors will be monitoring U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due to be released on Tuesday, and Producer Price Index data, due out Wednesday, for a reading of how well the Fed's tightening cycle has managed to curb high inflation.
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”
Yet, there is VALUE out there after electronic trading and algorithms take their toll on share pricing however, it’s about playing or betting and timing of the sector. Even as I had stated, “I wouldn’t be buying … I would be selling into this upside!”
The top three (3) performing in the session:
· Monday: Chinook Therapeutics (KDNY), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and BioLife Solutions (BLFS)
· Friday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
While The worst three (3) in the session:
· Monday: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), CRISPR Therapeutics and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
· Friday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam therapeutics (BEAM) and uniQure NV (QURE)
WHY (?) do I keep posting, so investors can get a daily update of the sector's share pricing and some individual companies TRUTHS while electronic trading chews on our portfolio edges.
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
Check your portfolio reports: Vanguard Group was fined and censured by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) for errors appearing in about 8.5 million customer account statements.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … so many issues from the past as many of those “miscreant management” members are still employed!
Monday closed FLAT with 116 shares traded after Friday closed FLAT with 0 shares traded, Thursday closed down -$0.11 with 301 shares traded, Wednesday closed FLAT with 46 shares traded, Tuesday closed down -$0.06 with 1,100 shares traded and last Monday closed down -$0.33 with 500 shares traded, <3-month average =1,441 shares>
· Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) finally announced a clinical trial initiation for an IND that was approved on 3/20/2020 – what’s with the time (3 years and 2 months) interval?
· Question: Review the number of shares traded on a weekly and monthly basis … is OTCQB: BSTG a Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?
· Accumulated deficit: $85,901 M – still NO product in sight – a 4-to-5-year clinical trial BEFORE they can evolve to a pediatric protocol!
· OTCQB: BSTG is holding their annual meeting on 7/19, to vote the Beijing, China designated directors …??? Certainly NOT a US company ANYMORE!
My question that resounds, that should be asked is how many companies are at the end of sentiments … leash?
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
