June 30, 2023 7:42am
After yet another weak aftermarket on Thursday; today, the month and Q2 ends
Pre-open Indication: 2 Sell into Strength as I consider a pause
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today, not tomorrow or yesterday.
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Pre – 8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.27% or (+93 points), S&P futures are UP +0.36% or (+16 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.47% or (+70 points) early in the pre-open – so far
U.S. equity futures rose Friday,
European stock markets also rose,
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes were mixed as the Dow closed UP +269.76 points (-0.80%), the S&P closed UP +19.58 points (+0.45%) while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -0.42 points (-0.00%).
Economic Data Docket: The personal consumer expenditures price index, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Economists see the overall PCE price index rising just 0.1% in May, bringing the PCE inflation rate down to 3.8% from April's 4.1%. The core PCE price index is expected to climb 0.4% once again, leaving the core PCE inflation rate at 4.7%.
Thursday (6/29) close … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “a stress test of cell and gene therapy sector defines its equities. How many times am I right as sector dives as just one (1) trading session remains in 1H/23.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13025
Ebb and flow:
Q2/23 – June: 1 Holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
· May – 10 negative and 12 positive closes
· April ended - 1 holiday, 8 positive close and 11 negative closes
Q1/23 –
· March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes
· February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Sell into Strength Indication:
Thursday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$1.28 after Wednesday’s +$2.10, Tuesday’s +$0.27 and Monday’s -$1.10 with a flat aftermarket indication.
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$1.66 after Wednesday’s -$0.65, Tuesday’s +$0.86 and Monday’s +$0.02 with a flat aftermarket indication
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
A positive for the sector, “The FDA approved drugmaker BioMarin's Pharmaceuticals’ (BMRN) gene therapy (Roctavian for adult patients with severe cases of hemophilia A, the inherited blood-clotting disorder that can lead to bleeding after minor injuries or scrapes) for the most common form of hemophilia.
· The IV therapy is a long-awaited alternative to current treatments, including weekly doses of a protein needed to help blood clot. Some patients take a newer, longer-acting biotech drug that replaces the protein.
· BioMarin said in a statement that the FDA approval was based on a three-year study showing a 50% reduction in annual bleeding incidents among 134 patients who received the treatment. Most patients continued to respond to the treatment beyond three years, without needing regular IV infusions, the company said.
· BMRN’s Roctavian's $2.9 million (HIGH) price tag reflects “the possibility of freedom from years” of infusions, which cost about $800,000 annually for a typical patient. The price is less than the $3.5 million announced last year for a similar gene therapy for hemophilia B, a less common form of the disease.
Economic data re inflation confuses markets and makes traders nervous.
Adding to coming uncertainty will be the start of Q2’s final week and 1st half of 2023, weeks ahead of the financial reporting season.
Earnings are about to be ready for release – questions are …RUNWAYS on track for further growth?
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
I am worried that a recission is in the future …
· According to Nouriel Roubini < a Turkish-born Iranian-American economic consultant, economist, and writer. He is a Professor Emeritus since 2021 at the Stern School of Business of New York University> - he has been one of my major interests, books, articles and more … an excellent quote on him, “Speaking about Roubini, economist Anirvan Banerji told The New York Times: "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day."
· He like me warns of financial vulnerabilities …
· “As matters stand, the eurozone is already in a technical recession, with GDP having fallen in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, and with inflation still well above-target (despite its recent decline).
· The United Kingdom is not yet in a recession, but growth has slowed sharply and inflation remains stubbornly high (above the OECD average).
· And the United States suffered a sharp slowdown in the first quarter even as core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) remained high (though inflation is falling, it remains above 5%).” <Market Watch>
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication.
