July 24, 2023 8:28am
Looking forward: I’m remaining cautious as Q2 earnings LPS (loss-per-share) are aiming for beginning of August while an unusual Nasdaq-100 rebalancing takes effect Monday; after large volume of index and stock options expired Friday.
Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive, 2 Negative and 1 Sell into Strength
My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what happened or will happen behind the headline today, not yesterday with a bit for tomorrow.
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8:30 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.10% or (+1 point), S&P futures are UP +0.10% or (+4 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.19% or (+20 points) early in the pre-open – so far
U.S. futures edged higher Monday,
European markets mixed,
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as investors digested key economic data from across the region.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
The Dow climber 2.51 points <notching ten-straight sessions of gain>, the S&P +1.47 points and the Nasdaq dived -30.50 points.
On a weekly basis, the Dow gained +2.08%, the S&P added +0.69% and the Nasdaq fell -0.57%
Take note, “Equities are “somewhat overstretched” as the market enters a period of negative seasonality, he warned in a note to clients. He said investors should be prepared to be patient, but also watch for any moves down as they still could make for good times to buy in. That’s especially true considering excitement artificial intelligence continues to build within the market. < Citi analyst Dirk Willer>
· I’m on the same page!!
Economic Data Docket: personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due at the end of the week.
· Investors anticipate the Fed will increase rates by a quarter percentage point at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday and will be listening to comments by Chair Jerome Powell to get a sense of the central bank’s position on what happens next as it tries to navigate a soft landing for the economy. <CNBC>
Ebb and flow:
Q3: July - 1 holiday, 9 positive and 5 negative close
Q2/23 -
· June -1 Holiday, 9 negative and 11 positive closes
· May – 10 negative and 12 positive closes
· April ended - 1 holiday, 8 positive close and 11 negative closes
Q1/23 –-
· March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes
· February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Positive Indications:
Friday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed negative down -$0.26 with a positive +$0.62 or 1.07% aftermarket indication.
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.80 with a positive +$0.52 or +1.16% after market indication.
Negative Indications:
Friday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$0.30 with a negative -$0.61 or -6.55% pre-open indication
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.43 and has a negative -$0.43 or -1.11% aftermarket indication.
Sell into Strength:
Friday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
bluebird bio (BLUE) closed up +$0.54 with a flat pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
The market could use a breather and there aren't a lot of setups at the moment. So, it's not a great time to be adding <a lot> exposure. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are on the edge of being extended, so an orderly pause or pullback would be healthy. <IBD>
Remember last Friday, 7/21 was a triple witching Friday; triple witching is when the expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options all fall on the same day.
Earnings are about to be ready for release – questions are …RUNWAYS on track for further downslides?
Some positive “macro” news, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), popped Friday +6%, lifted by Q2 earnings beats and a boost to its full-year guidance.
On a weekly basis, the Dow is up more than 2% and on pace for its second positive week in a row.
Last week: Glad I missed some of it … a relatively positive week!
· Friday closed (7/21) positive with 19 incliners, 14 decliners and 2 flats
· Thursday closed negative with 9 incliners, 26 decliners and 0 flat
· Wednesday closed positive with 19 incliners, 15 decliners and 1 flat
· Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliners, 16 decliners and 0 flats
· Monday (7/17) closed positive with 18 incliners, 17 decliners and 0 flats
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
