Reg Med Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: August deepens the cell and gene therapy share pricing abyss

August 17, 2023 4:46pm

With the sector stuck in another losing week and in negative territory for the month

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

Pre-Open Indications: 1 Hit and 3 Miss (always better to be early)

Never leave an investor uninformed!

Markets will be on pins and needles regarding what the Fed will do all through September and into October

If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.

The Dow closed DOWN -290.91 or -0.84%, the S&P closed DOWN -34.03 or -0.77% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -157.70 points (-1.17%)

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes fell Thursday as investors digested the latest round of earnings and economic data, and as rates jumped to fresh highs.

Bullish sentiment among individual investors nosedived in the latest American Association of Individual Investor weekly survey, to 35.9% looking out across the next six months, from 44.7% last week and 49.0% two weeks ago.

• The decline in optimism snapped a 10-week-long streak when bullishness had exceeded the historical average of 37.5%, the AAII said. Meanwhile, bearishness in the latest survey rose to 30.1% from 25.5% last week and just 21.3% two weeks, while those who said they were neutral on stocks for the next six months climbed to 34.0% from 29.8% last week and 29.7% two weeks ago. <CNBC>

Economic Data Docket: Jobless claims for the week ended 8/12 fell from the previous period and came in slightly under estimates. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve also reported an uptick in its manufacturing index in August.

Thursday (8/17) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “risk on risk or will the cloud be lifting? Again, I reiterate - I’m looking at entry points.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13082   

Pre-Open Indications: 1 Hit < Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.23)> and 3 Miss < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.00), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.16), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.46)

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

• Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 7 up/ 26 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 10 up/ 24 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flats

52-Week Lows:

• Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) at $22.95
• Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) at $0.90
• Fate Therapeutics (FATE) at $2.75

Ebb and flow:

• Q3: August – 2 positive and 11 negative closes

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

• Thursday, the IBB was down -0.49% and the XBI was down -1.45%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

• Thursday was up +0.97 point or +5.60% at 17.72

Closing Down (10 of 25):

• Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$2.20 after Wednesday’s -$1.27, Tuesday’s +$0.49 and Monday’s +$1.58),
• Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.04 after Wednesday’s -$1.85, Tuesday’s -0.19 and Monday’s +$1.88),
• Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.52 after Wednesday’s -$1.06),
• Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.45 after Wednesday’s -$0.78, Tuesday’s -$1.27 and Monday’s -$0.91),
• Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.42 after Wednesday’s -$0.45 and Tuesday’s -$0.34),
• Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.36 after Wednesday’s -$0.88, Tuesday’s -$0.38 and Monday’s -$0.14),
• Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.31),
• Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.31),
• Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR -$0.25),

uniQure NV (QURE -$0.19),

Closing Up (10 of 10):

• Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.46 after Wednesday’s +$2.30, Tuesday’s -$1.22 and Monday’s -$4.44)
• Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.28 after Wednesday’s -$1.06 after Tuesday’s -$0.95 and Monday’s -$0.33),
• AxoGen (AXGN +$0.28 after Wednesday’s -$0.51 after Tuesday’s +$0.04),
• Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.21),
• Precigen (PGEN +$0.20),
• Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.18 after Wednesday’s +$0.01),
• Harvard Apparatus RM (HRGN +$0.14),
• Agenus (AGEN +$0.06),
• Graphite Bio (GRPH +$0.04 after Wednesday’s +$0.05),
• Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.01)

Q3/23 – August

• Thursday closed negative with 10 incliners, 25 decliners and 0 flat

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”

Cell and gene therapy sector equity “pooped the bed” on Thursday while upbeat economic data kept alive fears of interest rates remaining higher for longer.

Pressuring equities further, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes hit its highest level since October as a raft of strong economic data this week stokes concerns the Fed could keep interest rates at the current level for longer. <Reuters>

Shares of Pfizer (PFE) rose as the company said its updated COVID-19 shot, which is being tested against emerging variants, showed neutralizing activity against the "Eris" subvariant in a study conducted on mice.

Vaccine makers Moderna (MRNA) and Novavax (NVAX) also rose as U.S. data showed COVID-19-related hospitalizations up more than 40% from recent lows hit in June.

August tends to frighten many stock market investors and historians.

•              The stock market is riding high after a strong performance in July, but August could be a difficult month for investors.

•              Data compiled by the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S&P 500 averages just a 0.1% gain in August. That makes it the third-worst month on average for the benchmark index. The Dow, meanwhile, averages a loss of 0.04% in August. <CNBC>

Cell and gene therapy sector performance continues to suggest the results of earning season…

Q2/23 net losses earnings, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13058

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - again, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and AxoGen (AXGN)

Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Vericel (VCEL) and Regenxbio (RGNX)

Tuesday: Ultragenyx (RARE), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), uniQure NV (QURE)

Monday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx (RARE) and Prime Medicine (PRME)

While The worst three (3) in the session:

Thursday: Ultragenyx (RARE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) – again and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)

Wednesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Verve Therapeutics (VERV) – again and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.

The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …

Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN) formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues!

•              Question: is HRGN just another Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?

•              Accumulated deficit:  $85,901 M ++ (newest 10-K does NOT REVEAL)

•              Will HRGN ESCAPE the scandals when its “former” corporate name was used by a former chairman and CEO Green initiating scandal plagued utilization of an Italian surgeon and the $5.9 M it took to settle out the executive responsibility as it was SHIFTED to the company shareholders and Harvard Bio (HBIO)???

•              On April 28, 2022, the Company entered into a Preferred Issuance Agreement, or PIA, with Harvard Bioscience, Inc., or HBIO, dated as of April 27, 2022. Pursuant to the PIA, the Company and HBIO agreed that once HBIO had paid at least $4.0 million in certain settlement and related legal expenses, to satisfy the Company’s indemnification obligations with respect thereto, in lieu of paying cash, the Company would issue senior convertible preferred stock to HBIO that will contain terms as described in the PIA. <10-K>

•              On June 10, 2022, following the execution of a subscription agreement and HBIO providing evidence of payment of the requisite $4.0 million amount, the Company issued HBIO 4,000 shares of Series E Convertible Preferred Stock, or Series E Preferred Stock, at a price of $1,000 per share to satisfy the Company’s related indemnification obligations pertaining to the $4.0 million, in lieu of paying cash. <10-K>

•              Can this management team be TRUSTED by ANY shareholder other then major holders’ Chinese off-shore investors.

•              HRGN schedules earnings LPS (loss-per-share) – al but broke as 3–5-year clinical trial begins – four (4) years after IND approved

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.

Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.

Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.