August 21, 2023 7:54am
August has so far shaped up to be the worst month of the year for cell and gene therapy sector stocks
News: AxoGen (AXGN +$0.41) issue processing center that will support our Biologics License Application (BLA) submission in the 1H/24 and has successful first week of processing for Avance Nerve Graft at the newly opened AxoGen Processing Center (APC), in Dayton, Ohio.
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing.
Pre-Open Indications: 1 Positive, 1 Negative and q sell into Strength
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.28% or (+98 point), S&P futures are UP +0.42% or (+18 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.56% or (+83 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures were higher Monday trying to recover from another weekly decline,
Europe stocks higher as UK homebuilders fall,
Asia Pacific markets mixed as China cuts 1-year loan prime rate, but leaves 5-year rate unchanged.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Friday, indexes closed mixed with the Dow wandering to the upside as the S&P and Nasdaq remained in the abyss with the Dow closing UP +25.83 or +0.07%, the S&P closed DOWN -0.65 or -0.01% while the Nasdaq also closed DOWN -26.16 points (-0.20%).
All three (3) of the indexes closed last week lower as a hawkish read of the minutes from the Fed's July meeting sent stocks lower and Treasury yields higher in the back half of the week.
Economic data Docket: Next Friday when Fed Chair Powell will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole Conference. He will undoubtedly say that the inflation rate remains too high above the Fed's 2.0% target. However, he will probably acknowledge that the CPI inflation rate has moderated significantly since last summer, especially excluding the shelter component, which is likely to fall in coming months (chart). He is also likely to reiterate that the target is meant to be achieved by 2025 not this year or even next year.
Friday’s (8/18) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “a snap, crackle and a pop. Cell and gene therapy sector stocks ticked up toward the end of Friday’s trading session but remained on pace for weekly losses, as August’s struggles continue; as I had stated on Wednesday, “I’m looking at entry points” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13085
Ebb and flow:
Q3: August – 3 positive and 11 negative closes
• July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Q2/23 -
• June -1 Holiday, 8 negative and 11 positive closes
• May – 10 negative and 12 positive closes
• April ended - 1 holiday, 8 positive close and 11 negative closes
Q1/23 –-
• March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes
• February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes
• January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
Positive Indication:
Friday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
AxoGen (AXGN) closed down -$0.18 with a positive +$0.41 or +7.13% aftermarket indication post new issue processing center that will support our Biologics License Application (BLA) submission in the 1H/24 (see title)
Blueprint Medicine (BLMC) closed up +$0.73 with a positive +$0.71 0r +1.44%pre-open indication.
Negative Indication:
Friday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.53 with a negative -$0.04 or -0.28% pre-open indication.
Sell into Strength:
Friday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$2.14 with a positive +$0.74 or +0.40% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
From Friday: Cell and gene therapy sector equities has experienced serious monthly lows while US government bond yields remained near recent 16-year highs as investors bet on interest rates staying elevated for longer, with worries over China's shadow banking sector also a dampener.
A stock market correction took hold last week, with big losses for the major indexes and leading stocks. Rising Treasury yields and mounting China economic concerns were big headwinds.
Cell and gene therapy sector equities are in the BUY zone.
Winners ... barely outpaced losers on Friday, and market breadth had been terrible, especially on the Nasdaq.
I don’t perceive ANY catalysts, which in turn gives the weak economic forecasts more room to move share pricing.
It “ain’t” been a good August for the cell and gene therapy sector as it suffers 2 positive and 11 negative closes so far.
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
