August 21, 2023 5:04pm
Monday’s moves come after weekly declines in the cell and gene therapy sector.
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Pre-Open indications: 4 Hits and 0 Miss
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Markets will be on pins and needles regarding what the Fed will do all through September and into October
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -36.97 or -0.11%, the S&P closed UP +30.06 or +0.69% while the Nasdaq closed UP +206.81 points (+1.56%)
Indexes were mixed as the Dow declined, the S&P and Nasdaq ascended while Treasury yields reached levels not seen in over a decade.
Those moves came even as the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield hit a high of 4.34%, reaching its highest level since 11/2007.
Economic Data Docket: investors are anticipating an address Friday morning from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the central bank’s annual symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Monday (8/21) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “it’s time to dive into the sector’s share pricing. August has so far shaped up to be the worst month of the year for cell and gene therapy sector stocks.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13086
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 3 flats, flipped positive with 20 up/ 14 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 20 incliners, 13 decliners and 2 flats
Pre-Open indications: 4 Hits < AxoGen (AXGN +$0.23), Blueprint Medicine (BLMC +$1.26), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.06), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)> and 0 Miss
Ebb and flow:
- Q3: August – 4 positive and 11 negative closes
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +1.46% and the XBI was up +1.11%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was down -0.22 point or -1.27% at 17.08
Closing Down (10 of 13):
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.25 after Friday’s +0.43),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.24 after Friday’s -$0.14),
- Graphite Bio (GRPH -$0.23),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.06 after Friday’s -$0.53
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.05),
- Agenus (AGEN -$0.05 after Friday’s +$0.15),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.05),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.21 after Friday’s +$1.05),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.04 after Friday’s +$0.18),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.03),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS)
- Precigen (PGEN)
Closing Up (10 of 20):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.70 after Friday’s +$2.14),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$1.88 after Friday’s +$0.17),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$1.26 after Friday’s +$0.73),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.48 after Friday’s -$0.04),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.36 after Friday’s -$0.15),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.23 after Friday’s +$0.36),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.35),
- Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.24),
- Harvard Apparatus RM (HRGN +$0.23),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.23 after Friday’s -$0.18),
Q3/23 – August
- Monday closed positive with 20 incliners, 13 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
It’s been a cruel summer for Nasdaq index, which is on pace for its worst Augusts since 2015 and 2001 …
investors are anxious to hear Powell's comments at Jackson Hole. Concerns the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer have pushed up U.S. Treasury yields, and fanned worries about the impact of higher rates on businesses and consumers.
Cell and gene therapy sector equity flitted with the upside on Friday to close positive after “pooping the bed” most of the week while upbeat economic data kept alive fears of interest rates remaining higher for longer.
Eli Lilly (LLY) was the only S&P 500 stock trading at all-time highs going back to 1952 when LLY offered its first public shares of stock. The stock is higher this year by roughly 50%.
Among decliners in the Dow, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shares fell after the healthcare conglomerate said it was expecting to retain a stake of about 9.5% in its newly separated consumer health unit, Kenvue.
August tends to frighten many stock market investors and historians.
• The stock market is riding high after a strong performance in July, but August could be a difficult month for investors.
• Data compiled by the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S&P 500 averages just a 0.1% gain in August. That makes it the third-worst month on average for the benchmark index. The Dow, meanwhile, averages a loss of 0.04% in August. <CNBC>
It hasn’t been a good month to report earnings…
Cell and gene therapy sector performance continues to suggest the results of earning season.
30 of 35 companies have reported so far in August. The average post-report reaction to these stocks has been 100% LPS (loss-per-share) consensus with many also missing revenue forecasts.
Q2/23 net losses earnings, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13058
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
While The worst three (3) in the session:
Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Graphite Bio (GPPH)
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN) formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues!
• Question: is HRGN just another Ponzi scheme (with their pump/promote buy and sell agenda) as shares are bought to replace those sold?
• Accumulated deficit: $85,901 M ++ (newest 10-K does NOT REVEAL)
• Will HRGN ESCAPE the scandals when its “former” corporate name was used by a former chairman and CEO Green initiating scandal plagued utilization of an Italian surgeon and the $5.9 M it took to settle out the executive responsibility as it was SHIFTED to the company shareholders and Harvard Bio (HBIO)???
• On April 28, 2022, the Company entered into a Preferred Issuance Agreement, or PIA, with Harvard Bioscience, Inc., or HBIO, dated as of April 27, 2022. Pursuant to the PIA, the Company and HBIO agreed that once HBIO had paid at least $4.0 million in certain settlement and related legal expenses, to satisfy the Company’s indemnification obligations with respect thereto, in lieu of paying cash, the Company would issue senior convertible preferred stock to HBIO that will contain terms as described in the PIA. <10-K>
• On June 10, 2022, following the execution of a subscription agreement and HBIO providing evidence of payment of the requisite $4.0 million amount, the Company issued HBIO 4,000 shares of Series E Convertible Preferred Stock, or Series E Preferred Stock, at a price of $1,000 per share to satisfy the Company’s related indemnification obligations pertaining to the $4.0 million, in lieu of paying cash. <10-K>
• Can this management team be TRUSTED by ANY shareholder other then major holders’ Chinese off-shore investors.
• HRGN earnings LPS (loss-per-share) – all but broke as 3–5-year clinical trial begins – four (4) years after IND approved??
· How much of HRGN has been funded by DPhone, the largest cell phone company in China; also, WHAT is its relationship with MSS, the Chinese national security organization??
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views express in this report.