August 22, 2023 4:51pm
As investors sit on sidelines, waiting for any catalyst to appear
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
Pre-Open indications: 4 Hits and 1 Miss
Never leave an investor uninformed!
Markets will be on pins and needles regarding what the Fed will do all through September and into October
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, operating executive, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN -174.86 or -0.51%, the S&P closed DOWN -12.22 or -0.28% while the Nasdaq closed UP +8.28 points (+0.06%)
Indexes closed mixed with the Dow and S&P down led by the Nasdaq which was up.
Investors remain cautious with the 10-year Treasury yield notching new highs this week, and ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s key speech later this week.
Economic Data Docket: Home sales fall again in July, as supply drops to near quarter-century low; the median price of a home sold in July was $406,700, an increase of 1.9% from July of last year.
- Sales fell month to month in all regions except the West, where they gained 2.7%. Sales fell the most in the Northeast, down 5.9%. There were 1.11 million homes for sale at the end of July, 14.6% fewer than July 2022 and about half of the pre-Covid supply.
Tuesday (8/22) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “risk involves uncertainty and the possibility of undesirable consequences … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13088
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 14 up/ 18 down and 3 flats, flipped barely positive with 17 up/ 16 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 19 incliners, 13 decliners and 3 flats
Pre-Open indications: 4 Hits < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.21), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.89), Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.12), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.12)> and 1 Miss < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.65)>
Ebb and flow:
- Q3: August – 5 positive and 11 negative closes
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Tuesday, the IBB was up +0.06% and the XBI was down -0.03%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Tuesday was down -0.14 point or -0.82% at 16.99
Closing Down (10 of 13):
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.21 after Monday’s +$1.26),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$0.89 after Monday’s +$1.88),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.40 after Monday’s +$0.36),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.12 after Monday’s +$0.48),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.08),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.07 after Monday’s -$0.05),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.05 after Monday’s -$0.06),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.03),
- Granite Bio (GRPH -$0.02),
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.02),
- Harvard Apparatus rm (HRGN)
- bluebird bio (BLUE)
- MiMedx (MDXG)
Closing Up (10 of 19):
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.04 after Monday’s -$0.21),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.65 after Monday’s +$2.70),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.44 after Monday’s +$0.36),
- AxoGen (AXGN +$0.41 after Monday’s +$0.23),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.33 after Monday’s -$0.25),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.32),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.17 after Monday’s -$0.04),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.12 after Monday’s -$0.24),
- Mesoblast (MESO +$0.12),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.12 after Monday’s -$0.35),
Q3/23 – August
- Tuesday closed positive with 19 incliners, 13 decliners and 3 flats
- Monday closed positive with 20 incliners, 13 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
It’s been a cruel summer for Nasdaq index, which is on pace for its worst Augusts since 2015 and 2001 …
Tuesday’s moves come as the bond market declined, a day after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. The 10-year yield eased slightly Tuesday to 4.33%
investors are anxious to hear Powell's comments at Jackson Hole. Concerns the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer have pushed up U.S. Treasury yields, and fanned worries about the impact of higher rates on businesses and consumers.
Cell and gene therapy sector equity flitted with the upside on Tuesday to close positive after “pooping the bed” most of last week and most of the month of august while upbeat economic data kept alive fears of interest rates remaining higher for longer.
Quotes of potential consequences, “Crossmark Global Investments’ Victoria Fernandez similarly expects a continuing pullback in the market, which she said will be influenced by climbing yields and a more cautious consumer.
· “I think we’re gonna see higher yields bite a little bit,” said Fernandez, the firm’s chief market strategist. “Now that we’re through earnings, it’s the macro story that’s going to be driving a lot of what we see in market volatility, and positive macro stories are really a double-edged sword because all that does is tell the Fed that their financial conditions are not tight enough.”
August tends to frighten many stock market investors and historians.
• The stock market is riding high after a strong performance in July, but August could be a difficult month for investors.
• Data compiled by the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S&P 500 averages just a 0.1% gain in August. That makes it the third-worst month on average for the benchmark index. The Dow, meanwhile, averages a loss of 0.04% in August. <CNBC>
It hasn’t been a good month to report earnings…
Cell and gene therapy sector performance continues to suggest the results of earning season.
30 of 35 companies have reported so far in August. The average post-report reaction to these stocks has been 100% LPS (loss-per-share) consensus with many also missing revenue forecasts.
Q2/23 net losses earnings, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13058
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Tuesday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) and Prime Medicine (PRME)
Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
While The worst three (3) in the session:
Tuesday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM)
Monday: Vericel (VCEL), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Graphite Bio (GPPH)
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN) formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues!
• Accumulated deficit: $85,901 M ++ (newest 10-K does NOT REVEAL)
• Will HRGN ESCAPE the scandals when its “former” corporate name <Biostage BSTG)> was used by a former chairman and CEO Green initiating scandal plagued utilization of an Italian surgeon and the $5.9 M it took to settle out the executive responsibility as it was SHIFTED to the company shareholders and Harvard Bio (HBIO)???
• On April 28, 2022, the Company entered into a Preferred Issuance Agreement, or PIA, with Harvard Bioscience (HBIO) dated as of April 27, 2022. Pursuant to the PIA, the Company and HBIO agreed that once HBIO had paid at least $4 million in certain settlement and related legal expenses, to satisfy the Company’s indemnification obligations with respect thereto, in lieu of paying cash, the Company would issue senior convertible preferred stock to HBIO that will contain terms as described in the PIA. <10-K>
• On June 10, 2022, following the execution of a subscription agreement and HBIO providing evidence of payment of the requisite $4.0 million amount, the Company issued HBIO 4,000 shares of Series E Convertible Preferred Stock, or Series E Preferred Stock, at a price of $1,000 per share to satisfy the Company’s related indemnification obligations pertaining to the $4.0 million, in lieu of paying cash. <10-K>
• Can this management team be TRUSTED by ANY shareholder other then major holders’ Chinese off-shore investors.
• HRGN schedules earnings LPS (loss-per-share) – al but broke as 3–5-year clinical trial begins – four (4) years after IND approved
· How much of HRGN has been funded by DPhone, the largest cell phone company in China; also, WHAT is its relationship with MSS, the Chinese national security organization??
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.