August 28, 2023 4:39pm
Sector’s loss of (musical) chairs while navigated algos and electronic trade
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 3 Miss
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If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a venture and public fund, multiple operating roles, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +213.08 or +0.62%, the S&P closed UP +27.60 or +0.63% while the Nasdaq closed UP +114.48 points (+0.84%)
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes continued to ascend on Monday after Friday’s pop in the final trading week of August.
Investors are also eyeing the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, due out on Thursday, followed by fresh non-farm payroll data Friday morning.
Economic Data Docket: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its job-openings and labor turnover survey, also called the Jolts report, for the month of July at 10 am Tuesday. Payroll processing group ADP will publish its National Employment report at 8:15 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, with the Labor Department following-up with weekly jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.
Monday (8/28) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “musical chairs; playing share pricing in the final week of August.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13096
Pre-Open indications: 3 Hits < Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.54), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.24), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.23)> and 3 Miss < Agenus (AGEN +$0.07), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.54), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.22)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 25 up/ 9 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 21 up/ 11 down and 2 flats at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 24 incliners, 11 decliners and 0 flat
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 16 up/ 19 down and 0 flat, strayed positive with 19 up/ 16 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
Ebb and flow:
- Q3: August – 8 positive and 12 negative closes
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.41% and the XBI was up +0.34%
- Friday, the IBB was up +0.57% and the XBI was up +1.12%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Monday was down -0.53 point or -3.38% at 15.15
- Friday was down -1.52 point or -8.84% at 15.84
Closing Down (11 of 11):
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$1.54 after Friday’s +$0.92),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.23 after Friday’s +$0.94
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.42),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.24 after Friday’s +$0.73),
- MiMedx (MDXG -$0.07),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.05 after Friday’s -$0.31
- Granite Bio (GRPH -$0.05),
- Solid BioSciences (SLDB -$0.05),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.045 after Friday’s -$0.045),
- Caribou BioSciences (CRBU -$0.01),
- Precigen (PGEN -$0.01),
Closing Up (10 of 24):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$2.40 after Friday’s +$2.49),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.54 after Friday’s +$0.51),
- Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.36 after Friday’s -$0.21),
- Prime Medicine (PRMC +$0.36),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.29),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.27),
- Harvard Apparatus RM (HRGN +$0.27 after Friday’s +$0.17)
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.26 after Friday’s +$0.25),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.25 after Friday’s -$0.04
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.22),
Q3/23 – August
- Monday closed positive with 24 incliners, 11 decliners and 0 flat
- Friday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
At ANY time, this week, be ready to take partial profits and exit losers after the cell and gene therapy sector equity ascended Monday (today), last Friday, after Thursday’s negative close and past positive closes of Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday and the previous Friday.
As I have stated, “What goes up with ceremony, goes down with disdain followed by the opposite effect.”
As I have stated, attention remains laser-focused on weeks and end of month’s busy economic calendar; I believe there will be some hesitation side by side with inflation data to really see the reality of the markets and cell and gene therapy sector ability or capacity to continue moving upward.
August tends to frighten many stock market investors and historians.
• The stock market is riding high after a strong performance in July, but August could be a difficult month for investors.
• Data compiled by the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows the S&P 500 averages just a 0.1% gain in August. That makes it the third-worst month on average for the benchmark index. The Dow, meanwhile, averages a loss of 0.04% in August. <CNBC>
It hasn’t been a good month to report earnings…
Cell and gene therapy sector performance continues to suggest the results of earning season.
30 of 35 companies have reported so far in August. The average post-report reaction to these stocks has been 100% LPS (loss-per-share) consensus with many also missing revenue forecasts.
Q2/23 net losses earnings, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13058
Right up front, “I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!”
Being “greedy when others are fearful” is easier said than done
When a cell and gene therapy sector equity sells-off to or below a buy point, investors face a tough decision: hold tight, exit or trim the position. There's not necessarily a "right" answer. Sometimes the stock will bounce right back, others will keep falling — perhaps after briefly bouncing. A more-cautious approach may make more sense in the current volatile market.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Generation Bio (GBIO)
Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) – again and Blueprint Medicine (BPMC)
While The worst three (3) in the session:
Monday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
Friday: Verve Therapeutics (VERV) – again, Generation Bio (GBIO) and Mesoblast (MESO)
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN) formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues according to the 8-K and 10-K!
• Accumulated deficit: $88.5 M (newest 10-K)
Question: How many CEOs, presidents, VPs, CFOs, CMOs, board members and audit members have … left or been laid-off, accounting firm’s resignations and employees have resigned since 11/1/13 when it spun out of Harvard Biosciences (HBIO) – guess? Also, how many consultants and CROs were left UNPAID after months and years of facilitating IND filed?
· HRGN has incurred substantial operating losses since its inception, and as of June 30, 2023 had an accumulated deficit of approximately $88.5 million and will require additional financing to fund future operations.
· HRGN will NEED to raise additional funds to fund its operations. WHO would INVEST??
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.