August 31, 2023 7:40am
Our universe has oscillated between both while the aftermarket was weak before economic data
News: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE pre-open indication -$0.61) to reorganize its business operations and plans to lay off about 188 people, or about 40% of its workforce, weeks after the U.S. health regulator declined to approve its drug to treat major depressive disorder initiating the planned commercial launch of ZURZUVAE for women with postpartum depression (PPD) in late 2023.
If you’re looking for sector intel, ideas and facts or Insight in a volatile climate, RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing.
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.32% or (+112 points), S&P futures are UP +0.09% or (+4 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.06% or (-9 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Futures were mixed and fluctuating coming off a positive session - Thursday,
European markets were higher,
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed as China’s factory activity contracted for a fifth straight month in August.
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Wednesday (yesterday), Indexes closed up/positive as the Dow closed UP +37.57 or +0.11%, the S&P closed UP +17.24 or +0.38% while the Nasdaq closed UP +75.55 points or +0.54%.
Economic Data Docket: The July Personal consumption expenditures data (PCE) price index, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, at 8:30 a.m.; economists expect the PCE price index and the core PCE to rise a modest 0.2% vs. June. The overall PCE inflation rate is seen climbing to 3.3% from June's 3%, due to tougher year-earlier comparisons. The core PCE inflation rate should tick up to 4.2%.
· Also, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Labor Department will release weekly jobless claims data.
Wednesday’s (8/30) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “the myth and the reality of sector share pricing. Daedalus and Icarus flew using wings made of wax and feathers. Ignoring his father’s warnings, Icarus flew too close to the sun and met a tragic end.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13101
Ebb and flow:
Q3: August – 9 positive and 13 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
· June -1 Holiday, 8 negative and 11 positive closes
· May – 10 negative and 12 positive closes
· April ended - 1 holiday, 8 positive close and 11 negative closes
· March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes
· February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Again, I am passing on forecasting the daily indications – it’s just too mixed of few ups, most downs and multiple flats i.e., going nowhere other than …
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.14 with a negative -$0.61 or -3.09% pre-open indication on news
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
A lot of words yet: “Don't act like the sector is in an uptrend until the sector is actually in an uptrend”.
Where and when is value creation as we slip into September and the end of Q3??
Reiterating, “I am for a number of exits … with investors holding on to the railings for new reads on the well-being of the US economy as a dismal August draw to a close.
And, I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong
As I have stated earlier this week, I am NOT confident that some cell and gene therapy sector equities can continue ascending to the upside; unfortunately, it is STILL a “musical chairs” game!
Risk is riskier …
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.