September 1, 2023 7:48am
Sentiment has been slipping as exits rose as August ended. My question, are we facing a prisoner’s dilemma- a situation wherein algorithms acting with electronic trading interests do not achieve any outcome for investors
Pre-open Indications: 4 Sell into Strength
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.43% or (+150 points), S&P futures are UP +0.53% or (+23 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.53% or (+82 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures were higher Friday waiting for the release of jobs data and closing-out August,
European markets were higher,
Asia-Pacific markets also traded higher.
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes wavered as the Dow and S&P crashed Thursday after four straight days of gains; set to wrap up a tough August as the Dow closed DOWN -168.33 or -0.48%, the S&P closed DOWN -7.21 or -0.16% while the Nasdaq closed barely UP +15.66 points or +0.11%.
Economic Data Docket: non-farm payroll data; unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.8% in August, reaching its highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings increased less than expected. Jobs, however, grew at a faster-than-expected pace last month, with 187,000 being added.
Thursday’s (8/31) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “the match was lit on August’s last trading session. Algorithms, electronic trading and economic data fanned the flames of multiple downslides.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13103
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – first session
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
· June -1 Holiday, 8 negative and 11 positive closes
· May – 10 negative and 12 positive closes
· April ended - 1 holiday, 8 positive close and 11 negative closes
· March – ended with 10 positive and 13 negative closes
· February – 1 holiday, 2 vacation, 7 negative and 8 positive closes
· January – 2 holidays, 11 positive and 9 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Thursday’s closing price, aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$0.66 after Wednesday’s +$2.70, Tuesday’s +$2.80 and Monday’s +$2.40 with a negative -$0.33 or -0.175 aftermarket indication.
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.19 after Wednesday’s +$0.34 and Tuesday’s +$1.54 with no pre-open indication.
Mesoblast (MESO) closed up +$0.18 to $1.61 after Wednesday’s $1.43, Tuesday’s $1.48, Monday’s $1.53 and last Friday’s $1.50 with a negative -$0.06 or -3.73% pre-open indication after releasing FY23’s operational and financial status which looks (to me) they’re out of cash (even with ATM usage) and runway by Q1 -Q2/24.
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$0.27 after Wednesday’s +$0.28, Tuesday’s +$0.22 and Monday’s -$0.42 with no pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
Today, September 1st starts a new month and could be an extension of August’s upside moratorium.
Investors could be taking a breath ahead of Friday's release of U.S. nonfarm payroll numbers.
· if Friday's jobs report follows in the footsteps of ADP private payrolls data from earlier in the week, then it could help drive indexes higher. < Art Hogan, B. Riley Wealth's chief market strategist>
US inflation has been slowing for some time now, buckling under the weight of near-incessant Fed rate hikes. With employment remaining muscular, many economists have either pushed back their so-far incorrect recession predictions or fallen entirely into the arms of a soft landing. But the strength of consumer spending—which rose 0.6% in July—is presenting fresh concern for policymakers hoping to put a final stake in inflation’s heart. So, the big question among investors is less about when or if a downturn might occur, but more specifically when the central bank might start to reverse course on rates. <Bloomberg>
A lot of words yet: “Don't act like the sector is in an uptrend until the sector is actually in an uptrend”.
Where and when is value creation as we slip into September and the end of Q3??
Reiterating, “I am for a number of exits … with investors holding on to the railings for new reads on the well-being of the US economy as a dismal August draw to a close.
And, I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong
As I have stated earlier this week, I am NOT confident that some cell and gene therapy sector equities can continue ascending to the upside; unfortunately, it is STILL a “musical chairs” game!
Risk is riskier … except when it isn’t! When is that?
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
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Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
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