September 6, 2023 4:52pm
Another offset with value ascension over two (2) sessions of September’s three (3) as “uncle” algo visits with his electronic trading entourage
Pre-open Indications: 5 Hits and 2 Miss
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
Never leave an investor uninformed!
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a closed end - venture and public fund, multiple operating roles, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of the biotech universe’s patterns, price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed DOWN – 198.78 or -0.57%, the S&P closed DOWN – 31.35 or -0.70% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -148.48 points or -1.06%
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell on Wednesday over concerns about “sticky” inflation while investors awaited the Fed's report on the U.S. economy for clues on the bank's interest rate path.
Rate-hike concerns fueled and dented investor sentiment, data showed the ISM non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 54.5, compared with expectations of 52.5.
Economic Data Docket: The ISM Services index registered a 54.5% reading, representing the share of companies reporting growth during the period. That was up 1.8 percentage points from the July reading and better than the 52.5% forecast. Services have expanded eight (8) straight months, contrasting to the manufacturing side, which has seen 10 consecutive months of contraction. At an industry level, inventories rose 7.3 points and the employment index increased 4 points. Order backlogs slide 10.3 points, which was the only sub-index to show contraction.
- The Fed's "Beige Book" reported ‘modest’ economic growth in July, August as the U.S. economy saw “modest” growth, while price growth slowed and hiring was “subdued.”
Tuesday (9/6) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “risk gets riskier. It’s just too much of a mix of few ups, most downs and flats i.e., share pricing going where?” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13108
Pre-Open indications: 5 Hits < Prime Medicine (PRMC -$0.09), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.98), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.36), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.22), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.07) and 2 Miss < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.11), Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.19)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 19 up/ 15 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 15 up/ 19 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, flopped positive with 20 incliners, 14 decliners and 1 flat at 2 p.m., ending with a positive close of 18 incliners, 12 decliners and 5 flats
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 2 positive and 1 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.65% and the XBI was up +0.38%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Wednesday was up +0.38 point or +2.71% at 14.39
Closing Down (12 of 12):
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.13),
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV -$0.19 after Tuesday’s -$0.61),
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE -$0.11),
- Solid biosciences (SLDB -$0.11),
- Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.11),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.11 after Tuesday’s +$0.34),
- Prime Medicine (PRMC -$0.09 after Tuesday’s -$0.78),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.04),
- Homology Medicine (FIXX -$0.02),
- Granite Bio (GRPH -$0.02),
- Compass Therapeutics (CMPX -$0.02),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.02),
- Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)
- uniQure NV (QURE)
- Mesoblast (MESO)
- AxoGen (AXGN)
- Agenus (AGEN)
Closing Up (10 of 18):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$1.11 after Tuesday’s -$0.83),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.98 after Tuesday’s +$0.22),
- Vericel (VCEL +$0.97 after Tuesday’s -$1.32),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.83 after Tuesday’s -$0.27),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.76 after Tuesday’s +$0.25),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.45 after Tuesday’s -$1.16),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.36 after Tuesday’s -$0.95),
- Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.29),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.23 after Tuesday’s -$0.69),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.22 after Tuesday’s +$0.28),
Q3/23 – September
- Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 12 decliners and 5 flats
- (9/5) Tuesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
- Monday was holiday
- (9/1) Friday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
Sector stocks sold off and on Wednesday – closing positive, continuing the sluggish start to September, as concerns mounted that the Fed may not be done hiking interest rates.
The ISM reinforced all the concerns that have been bedeviling stocks for weeks – higher yields undercut stock valuations, robust growth [and] sticky inflation keep pressure on the Fed, healthy growth gives a further bid to oil,” said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli in a Wednesday note.
The cell and gene therapy sector equity closed positive on Wednesday following Tuesday’s dive post Friday’s positive close; the previous Monday was a holiday with the come-back a glaring downslide - leading with light trading volumes.
WHY these quotes, it’s about retail investors and … financing the sector – it ain’t good, actually downright bad!
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Being “greedy when others are fearful” is easier said than done
When a cell and gene therapy sector equity sells-off to or below a buy point, investors face a tough decision: hold tight, exit or trim the position. There's not necessarily a "right" answer. Sometimes the stock will bounce right back, others will keep falling — perhaps after briefly bouncing. A more-cautious approach may make more sense in the current volatile market.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Vericel (VCEL)
Tuesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
Monday was a holiday
While The worst three (3) in the session:
Wednesday: Verve Therapeutics (VERV), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Tuesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
Monday was a holiday
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN) formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues according to the 8-K and 10-K!
• Accumulated deficit: $88.5 M (newest 10-K)
· HRGN has incurred substantial operating losses since its inception, and as of June 30, 2023 had an accumulated deficit of approximately $88.5 million and will require additional financing to fund future operations.
· HRGN will NEED to raise additional funds to fund its operations. WHO and WHICH U.S. investors would INVEST in a BASICALLY Chinese company with their history??
· Are they back pumping the price +$0.01 and volume – as 5,757 shares traded – reinforcing MY view as a Ponzi scheme!! <9/5/23>. Funny how so many and Wednesday’s flats surrounding the “pop” on Tuesday
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.