September 8, 2023 4:52pm
As I predicted, the curse was partially revoked after writing this a.m. “reverse the sector’s downer curse”
Pre-open Indications: 6 Hits and 1 Miss
Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors! Join me … in the NO spin zone.
Never leave an investor uninformed!
The week in review
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a closed end -venture and public equity funds, multiple operating roles, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to our knowledge of the biotech universe’s patterns, price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The Dow closed UP +75.86 points or +0.22%, the S&P closed UP +6.35 points or +0.14% while the Nasdaq closed UP +12.69 points or +0.09%
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes barely fluctuated (Dow and S&P were up, Nasdaq while popping at close) on Friday heading to a losing week amid renewed worries that the Fed could raise rates more than expected.
“Investors may be finding some comfort in the lack of bad news during Friday’s session following a string of stronger-than-expected economic data points earlier in the week. Recent economic data, including lower-than-expected initial jobless claims, have reignited rate hike fears and concerns that the Federal Reserve may have more work ahead.” <Bryce Doty, a senior vice president and portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates>
In the week, the Dow dive -1%, the S&P 500 fell -1.5%, while the Nasdaq’s lost -2.1%.
Friday (9/8) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “reverse the sector’s downer curse. As long as inflation is a major threat while traders will weigh the risks of rate hikes as the Fed doesn’t seem to be changing its stance on rates; this is an opportunity to buy some decliners and sell into strength a number of sector stocks. Let’s not forget September ends Q3 with following quarterly earnings releases.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13112
Pre-Open indications: 6 Hits < Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.40), BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.33), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.74), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.01), Sell into Strength: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.83), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.72)> and 1 Miss < Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.14)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 8 up/ 23 down and 4 flats, flipped positive with 19 up/ 15 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 18 incliners, 16 decliners and 1 flat
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 9 up/ 23 down and 3 flats at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 24 decliners and 3 flats
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 19 up/ 15 down and 1 flat, flipped negative with 15 up/ 19 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, flopped positive with 20 incliners, 14 decliners and 1 flat at 2 p.m., ending with a positive close of 18 incliners, 12 decliners and 5 flats
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 15 up/ 17 down and 3 flats, stayed negative with 6 up/ 28 down and 1 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
- Monday was a holiday
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 3 positive and 2 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB) at $3.26
- Verve Therapeutics (VERV) at $2.47
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE) at $12.62
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was down -0.02% and the XBI was down -0.18%
- Thursday, the IBB was down -0.34% and the XBI was down -1.43%
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.65% and the XBI was up +0.38%
- Tuesday, the IBB was down -1.44% and the XBI was down -1.82%
- Monday was holiday
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was down -0.50 point or -3.47% at 13.90
- Thursday was neutral +0.00 point or 0.00% at 14.45
- Wednesday was up +0.38 point or +2.71% at 14.39
- Tuesday was up +0.19. point or +1.37% at 14.01
- Monday was holiday
Closing Down (10 of 16):
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.33 after Thursday’s -$0.24),
- Prime Medicine (PRMC -$0.97 after Thursday’s +$0.41 after Wednesday’s -$0.09 and Tuesday’s -$0.78),
- Vericel (VCEL -$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.64 after Wednesday’s +$0.97 and Tuesday’s -$1.32),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$ 0.14 after Thursday’s -$0.30, Wednesday’s +$0.23 and Tuesday’s -$0.69),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.14),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.089),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.05 after Thursday’s +$0.02)
- Generation Bio (GBIO -$0.03),
- Agenus (AGEN -$0.03)
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU -$0.03 after Thursday’s -$0.32, Wednesday’s -$0.11 and Tuesday’s +$0.34),
- Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)
Closing Up (10 of 18):
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$2.74 after Thursday’s +$0.60, Wednesday’s +$0.36 and Tuesday’s -$0.95),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$0.83 after Thursday’s +$0.59, Wednesday’s +$0.45 and Tuesday’s -$1.16),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.72 after Thursday’s +$0.25),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$0.60 after Thursday’s -$1.75, Wednesday’s +$0.83 and Tuesday’s -$0.27),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.40 after Thursday’s +$0.49, Wednesday’s +$0.98 and Tuesday’s +$0.22),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS +$0.33 after Thursday’s -$0.83),
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$0.33 after Thursday’s -$0.35, Wednesday’s +$1.11 and Tuesday’s -$0.83),
- MiMedx (MDXG +$0.29),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$0.18 after Thursday’s -$0.50, Wednesday’s +$0.22 and Tuesday’s +$0.28),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.18),
Q3/23 – September
- Friday closed positive with 18 incliners, 16 decliners and 1 flat
- Thursday closed negative with 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats
- Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 12 decliners and 5 flats
- Tuesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
- (9/4) Monday was holiday
- (9/1) Friday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
Cell and gene therapy sector stocks popped on Friday continuing the sluggish start to September, as concerns mounted that the Fed may not be done hiking interest rates.
The cell and gene therapy sector equity closed positive on Friday after Thursday’s negative close after its positive close on Wednesday following Tuesday’s dive post Friday’s positive close; the previous Monday was a holiday with the come-back a glaring downslide - leading with light trading volumes.
Investors are still waiting for August U.S. inflation readings.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is due on Sept. 13; the Fed's next interest rate decision is scheduled for Sept. 20.
“This <market> is just a little bit of a dead cat bounce," said Kenny Polcari, Chief market strategist at Slatestone Wealth, Jupiter, Florida who pointed to "three to four days of real pressure on the market because of the China news on Apple and because of the spike in oil prices."
WHY these quotes, it’s about retail investors, gaining knowledge and G-2 <intelligence) and … ultimately about financing the sector – it ain’t good, actually downright bad!
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Being “greedy when others are fearful” is easier said than done
When a cell and gene therapy sector equity sells-off to or below a buy point, investors face a tough decision: hold tight, exit or trim the position. There's not necessarily a "right" answer. Sometimes the stock will bounce right back, others will keep falling — perhaps after briefly bouncing. A more-cautious approach may make more sense in the current volatile market.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Friday: Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) - again, Ionis Pharmaceutrals (IONS) – again and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
Thursday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ionis Pharmaceutrals (IONS)
Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Vericel (VCEL)
Tuesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
Monday was a holiday
While The worst three (3) in the session:
Friday: Prime Medicine (PRMC), AxoGen (AXGN) and Vericel (VCEL) - again
Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), BioLife Solutions (BLFS) and Vericel (VCEL)
Wednesday: Verve Therapeutics (VERV), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
Tuesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Vericel (VCEL)
Monday was a holiday
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN) formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues according to the 8-K and 10-K!
• Accumulated deficit: $88.5 M (newest 10-K)
· HRGN has incurred substantial operating losses since its inception, and as of June 30, 2023 had an accumulated deficit of approximately $88.5 million and will require additional financing to fund future operations.
· HRGN will NEED to raise additional funds to fund its operations. WHO and WHICH U.S. investors would INVEST in a BASICALLY Chinese company with their history??
· Are they back pumping the price +$0.01 and volume – as 5,757 shares traded – reinforcing MY view as a Ponzi scheme!! <9/5/23>. Funny how so many flats – Friday, Thursday, and Wednesdays after the fact of the “pump share pricing and promote volume” on Tuesday
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.