September 12, 2023 7:36am
To validate indications that equities are valuable or worth having previously bought in; during a volatile market environment, timed upside exits are the right signal to play as multiple up sessions are now suspect in individual sector holdings
Pre-open Indications: 4 Sell into Strength Indications
RMi defines the extenuating factors of share pricing; subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!
8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are DOWN -0.16% or (-55 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.21% or (-9 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.21% or (-33 points) early in the pre-open – so far
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes closed higher in Monday’s trading on a quiet day ahead of what is sure to be a busy week; with the Dow closing UP +87.13 points or +0.25%, the S&P closed UP +29.97 points or +0.67% while the Nasdaq closed UP +156.37 points or +1.14%.
Economic Data Docket: the NFIB Small Business Index nudged lower to 91.3, down -0.6 points and slightly below the estimate of 91.5.
- Wednesday and Thursday bring the latest consumer price index and producer price index readings. Retail sales data is also expected Thursday and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey will be released on Friday, which should give insight on how well spending could hold up for the rest of the year.
Monday’s (9/11) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “RegMed Investors (RMi) Closing Bell: cell and gene therapy sector stays positive. Market breadth should keep investors cautious for the week until economic/inflation data releases, algos and electronic trading seek to disable the upside; I am still emphasizing sell into strength signals to offset the coming downdraft.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13115
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 4 positive and 2 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Monday’s closing price, some Wednesday’s and Tuesday’s, Monday was a market holiday following aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed up +$0.43 after Friday’s +$0.333 after Thursday’s -$0.83 with a positive +$0.27 or +1.96% aftermarket indication.
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed up +$1.13 after Friday’s +$0.60, Thursday’s -$1.75, Wednesday’s +$0.83 and Tuesday’s -$0.27 with a positive +$0.03 or +0.06% pre-open indication.
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed up +$0.15 after Friday’s -$0.11 with a negative -$0.29 or -3.16% aftermarket indication.
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$1.35 after Friday’s -$0.18, Thursday’s -$0.64, Wednesday’s +$0.97 and Tuesday’s -$1.32 with a negative -$0.29 or -3.16% pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
The stock market's uptrend remains challenged this week, as key inflation reports take center stage with the August reading for the Consumer Price Index due Wednesday. CPI is seen rising 3.6% year-over-year while core CPI is expected to pop 4.3%. Producer Price Index data is due the following day. <IBD>
As I have stated last week, it is STILL a “musical chairs” game! Remember, risk is riskier … except when it isn’t!
So, if you're buying on weakness, you might be jumping onto a sinking ship.
Attention remains laser-focused on week’s busy economic calendar; there’s more than a bit of hesitation in front of inflation data to really see the reality of the markets and cell and gene therapy sector ability or capacity to move upward.
Remember, the sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
A lot of words, lets see what “shakes” in the next sessions of the week!
Investors crave share pricing explanations because they give us an illusion of portfolio control. I know what a company is supposed to look like, be like, and smell like to succeed; bottom line, investors own the right to exit or enter sector’s share pricing.
My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
Timing is everything, “I learned very early (as a military officer), if you weren’t 5 minutes early for a meeting, you were 10 minutes late – follow my lead by being EARLY in portfolio deliberations.”
A lot of words … from “others” … yet: “Don't act like the sector is in an uptrend until the sector is actually in an uptrend.”
Where and when is value creation as we have slipped into September and the end of Q3??
Reiterating, “I am for a number of exits … with investors holding on to the railings for new reads on the well-being of the US economy as a dismal August draw to a close.
And, I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice.
All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.