September 13, 2023 7:43am
The CPI inflation report is sure to swing futures before the open today and then markets
Pre-open Indications: 1 Positive Indications and 2 Sell into Strength Indications
News: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) the NASDAQ has halted trading of the stock. The FDA Cardiovascular and Renal Drugs Advisory Committee is meeting today to review the supplemental New Drug Application for patisiran, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in development for the treatment of the cardiomyopathy of transthyretin-mediated (ATTR) amyloidosis. The Advisory Committee to meet at 9 a.m.
No tunnel vision here, this analyst/journalist gets into the weeds of daily share pricing and root causes. It's a daunting task to understand risk, seeing the unforeseen; on the basis of my own “rules”, I set-up my own “warning analysis” which isn’t Ai oriented!
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are DOWN -0.15% or (-54 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.14% or (-6 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.17% or (-26 points) early in the pre-open – so far
U.S. stock futures were slightly negative Wednesday,
European stock markets fell,
Asia-Pacific markets also fell.
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes dives heading for its 1st losing day in three (3); the Dow closed DOWN -17.73 points or -0.05%, the S&P closed DOWN -25.56 points or -0.57% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -144.28 points or -1.04%.
Economic Data Docket: consumer price index and producer price index readings.
Economists are estimating a 3.6% year-over-year rise in inflation. This would mark an increase from the prior month’s reading of 3.2%. Core CPI, which omits food and energy costs due to volatility, is forecasted to have risen 4.3% in August, compared to a 4.7% gain in July.
· Retail sales data is also expected Thursday and
· the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey will be released on Friday, which should give insight on how well spending could hold up for the rest of the year.
Tuesday’s (9/11) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “cell and gene therapy sector resembles my slinky. The Slinky is a stack of coiled metal that oscillates, as it flips head-over-heels to move.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13117
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 5 positive and 2 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday, Friday, Thursday and Wednesday with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed up +$7.93 after Monday’s +$2.29 with a positive +$0.34 or +0.16% aftermarket indication.
Vericel (VCEL) closed up +$2.46 after Monday’s +$1.35, Friday’s -$0.18, Thursday’s -$0.64 and last Wednesday’s +$0.97 with a positive +$0.72 or +1.97% aftermarket indication.
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$0.17 after Monday’s +$0.15 and Friday’s -$0.11 with a positive +$0.23 or +2.56% aftermarket indication.
The BOTTOM LINE:
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all, as I try to keep it simple and short!
Tuesday, indexes suffered slim-to-solid losses, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq back below the 50-day line.
As I have stated last week, it is STILL a “musical chairs” game! Remember, risk is riskier … except when it isn’t!
A few good days and many sector equities, I believe are actionable or in position to be sold into strength; but a couple of bad days are due and many look about to be seriously damaged!
Attention remains laser-focused on week’s busy economic calendar; there’s more than a bit of hesitation in front of inflation data to really see the reality of the markets and cell and gene therapy sector ability or capacity to move upward.
Remember, the sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be… as NOT much changes as the sector’s share pricing rides the waves of volatility, algorithms, electronic trading and short covering.
A lot of words, lets see what “shakes” in the next sessions of the week!
Investors crave share pricing explanations because they give us an illusion of portfolio control. I know what a company is supposed to look like, be like, and smell like to succeed; bottom line, investors own the right to exit or enter sector’s share pricing.
My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize after the opening and what might happen during the session.
Timing is everything, “I learned very early (as a military officer), if you weren’t 5 minutes early for a meeting, you were 10 minutes late – follow my lead by being EARLY in portfolio deliberations.”
A lot of words … from “others” … yet: “Don't act like the sector is in an uptrend until the sector is actually in an uptrend.”
Where and when is value creation as we have slipped into September and the end of Q3??
Reiterating, “I am for a number of exits … with investors holding on to the railings for new reads on the well-being of the US economy as a dismal August draw to a close.
And, I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.