September 15, 2023 4:53pm
Sentiment is slippin’ and slidin’, jiving and diving as contracts expired today including options tied to single stocks, as well as options and futures tied to major indexes - all tools for investors to hedge risks or make speculative bets
Pre-open Indications: 2 Hits and 1 Miss
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The week in review
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The Dow closed DOWN -288.87 points or -0.83%, the S&P closed DOWN -54.78 points or -1.22% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -217.72 points or -1.56%
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes fell Friday as investors wrap up a volatile week ahead of the Fed’s policy meeting.
The Dow was headed for a winning week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were both on pace to close out the week with losses.
Economic Data Docket: import prices jumped, industrial production beat expectations and University of Michigan consumer inflation expectations cooled.
- The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.1% in September, tied for the lowest since January 2021. Also, the five-year outlook fell to 2.7%, matching its lowest since December 2020.
Friday (9/15) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “understanding perception. The sector is what it is, until it isn’t and even then, it doesn’t seem to be.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13122
Pre-Open indications: 2 Hits < CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.70), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0191)> and 1 Miss <Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$9.07)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Friday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 9 up/ 24 down and 3 flats, kept negative at the mid-day with 6 up/ 27 down and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 17 up/ 13 down and 5 flats, kept positive at the mid-day with 21 up/ 11 down and 3 flats, ending with a positive close of 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats
- Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 11 up/ 16 down and 8 flats, stayed negative with 9 up/ 21 down and 5 flats at 10:30 a.m. kept negative at the mid-day with 10 up/ 22 down and 3 flats, ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 24 decliners and 4 flats
- Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 23 up/ 11 down and 1 flat, stayed barely positive with 18 up/ 17 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 18 incliners, 14 decliners and 0 flat
- Monday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 20 up/ 14 down and 1 flat, stayed positive with 25 up/ 10 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a positive close of 23 incliners, 12 decliners and 0 flat
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 4 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Friday, the IBB was down -0.76% and the XBI was down -1.47%
- Thursday, the IBB was up +0.38% and the XBI was down -0.10%
- Wednesday, the IBB was down -0.30% and the XBI was down -1.06%
- Tuesday, the IBB was down -0.16% and the XBI was up +0.38%
- Monday, the IBB was up +0.65% and the XBI was up +0.22%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Friday was up +1.09 point or -8.50% at 13.91
- Thursday was down -0. point or -% at 13.
- Wednesday was down -0.75 point or -5.27% at 13.48
- Tuesday was up +0.44 point or +3.19% at 14.24
- Monday was up +0.05 point or +0.36% at 13.90
Closing Down (10 of 25):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$8.07 after Thursday’s -$18.59, Wednesday’s $0.00 due trading stop)
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.58 after Thursday’s -$1.70, Wednesday’s -$0.45, Tuesday’s +$0.67 and Monday’s -$0.41),
- Vericel (VCEL -$1.41 after Thursday’s -$1.02, Wednesday’s +$0.20, Tuesday’s +$2.46 and Monday’s +$1.35),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.75 after Thursday’s -$0.56, Wednesday’s -$0.88, Tuesday’s -$0.74 and Monday’s +$0.43),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.73 after Thursday’s +$0.49),
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.71 after Thursday’s -$0.36 and Wednesday’s +$0.01),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.70 after Thursday’s +$1.92, Wednesday’s -$1.01, Tuesday’s -$0.70 and Monday’s +$1.13),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.47 after Thursday’s -$1.17, Wednesday’s -$0.78 and Tuesday’s +$1.79),
- Prime Medicine (PRMC -$0.30),
- Regenxbio (RGNX -$0.30)
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
- Harvard Apparatus RN (HRGN)
Closing Up (8 of 8):
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.26),
- Caribou Biosciences (CRBU +$0.21 after Thursday’s +$0.05, Wednesday’s -$0.50, Tuesday’s -$0.29 and Monday’s +$0.63),
- Graphite Bio (GRPH +$0.08),
- bluebird bio (BLUE +$0.02)
- Precigen (PGEN +$0.015),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS +$0.010,
- Generation Bio (GBIO +$0.01)
Q3/23 – September
- Friday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
- Thursday closed positive with 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats
- Wednesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 24 decliners and 4 flats
- Tuesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 14 decliners and 3 flats
- (9/11) Monday closed positive with 23 incliners, 12 decliners and 0 flat
The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!
I follow the dictum, quoting Churchill that “short words are best, and the old words when short are best of all.”
As I wrote this a.m., “The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde might make for a great read, but it’s far less fun when the sector act like it’s their blueprint. Stocks have lately been alternating between the horrific and the benign.”
Contributing to today’s (9/15) downdraft …
- As trading in U.S. stock options, especially extremely short-dated zero day to expiration options, continues to boom, contracts attached to $3.4 trillion worth of U.S. stocks, exchange-traded funds and equity indexes like the S&P 500 expired today during September’s expiry for monthly and quarterly options.
- Indexes tumbled as a strike launched by the United Auto Workers union (UAW) helped fuel the sell-off; providing a downbeat ending to a tumultuous week.
The cell and gene therapy sector equities “sloped” Friday after popping positive on Thursday, having dived negative on Wednesday, stayed positive on Tuesday after Monday’s positive close and the previous Friday’s positive close.
Another updating, too many factors are calling the ball on share pricing – algorithms and electronic trading, here and there sentiment, economics, upcoming Q3 earnings.
I believe the political aspect of the country’s leanings, polarization, and disparities of the debt ceilings arguments are contributing to the roller coaster ride for share pricing actions.
It’s still about the economy … STUPID as investors congest a raft of economic reports pointing to … tamer core inflation data and a spending consumer.
Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
Being “greedy when others are fearful” is easier said than done!
When a cell and gene therapy sector equity sells-off to or below a buy point, investors face a tough decision: hold tight, exit or trim the position. There's not necessarily a "right" answer. Sometimes the stock will bounce right back, others will keep falling — perhaps after briefly bouncing. A more-cautious approach may make more sense in the current volatile market.
More bad news: Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) is laying off 95 people in Cambridge and 290 people (including Raleigh, North Carolina) total in the wake of a rejection from the FDA as part of a widespread restructuring after its market cap collapsed.
Some good news: Two biotechs — Neumora Therapeutics (NMRA) priced IPO at $17.00 and RayzeBio (RYZB) priced at $18.00 — begin trading yesterday after pricing their respective initial public offerings on Thursday evening.
- NMRA raised $250 million, develops treatments for neuropsychiatric and neurodegenerative diseases and is down -$1.02 to $15.98 - J.P. Morgan, BofA Securities, Stifel, Guggenheim Securities, RBC Capital Markets, and William Blair acted as joint book-running managers for the offering.
- RYGB raised $311 million, develops radiation-emitting medicines for cancer - J.P. Morgan, Jefferies, Evercore ISI and Truist Securities acted as joint book-running managers for the offering and is trading +$6.20 to $24.20.
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Friday: Caribou Biosciences (CRBU), uniQure NV (QURE) and Graphite Bio (GRPH)
Thursday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Ionis Pharmaceutrals (IONS) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
Wednesday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Vericel (VCEL) and uniQure NV (QURE)
Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) - again, Vericel (VCEL) and Ionis Pharmaceutrals (IONS)
Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Prime Medicine (PRMC)
While The worst three (3) in the session:
Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – again, Vericel (VCEL) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) - again
Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)
Wednesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) - again, Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) - again
Tuesday: Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA), Blueprint Medicines (BPMC) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP)
Monday: Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
I am definitely considered a contrarian depending on the session – one has to be a watcher of the ups and downs as well as measurer of sentiment. I am also a NO trust investor but, a validate and verify journalist/analyst.
The NO spin zone! U.S. public shareholders deserve accountability …
Harvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology (HRGN) formerly Biostage (OTCQB: BSTG) … as of 7/20/23 -- so many issues according to the 8-K and 10-K!
Still labeled a … Going Concern
· HRGN has incurred substantial operating losses since its inception, and as of June 30, 2023 had an accumulated deficit of approximately $88.5 million and will require additional financing to fund future operations.
· HRGN will NEED to raise additional funds to fund its operations. WHO and WHICH U.S. investors would INVEST in a BASICALLY Chinese company with their history??
· As they continue pumping the price “pump share pricing and promote volume” just like a Ponzi scheme??? Notice the volume today – 5,398 shares traded <3-month average = 1,498 shares> to close FLAT?
· Question, did you notice how it barely trades unless volume is “pump” – is it by DST, run by the president of HRGN, Hong Yu and Mrs. Mrs. bin Zhao of Weston, Mass – funded by Lui Dong Hai, chairman of Dixintong Technology Group (D. Phone, the largest smartphone retailer in China) the husband of Mrs. bin Zhao??
· Is the current or future investment coming directly or indirectly from those associated with two (2) directors of BSTG, Jason Jing Chen (chairman of BSTG’s board of directors who resides in Beijing, China and is employed by a subsidiary of Dixintong technology Group – D. Phone), Ting Li (Donghai Securities Co., Ltd) - all reside in China – what are their affiliations??
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.