September 19, 2023 7:39am
Instead of dwelling on not buying the “depleted” or not waiting long enough to take profit; I suggest thinking about where your portfolio is most vulnerable
Pre-open Indications: 2 Positive, 2 Negative Indications and 1 Sell into strength
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sectors) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths – it’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!
Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!
8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.07% or (+24 points), S&P futures are UP +0.12% or (+5 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.14% or (+21 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures traded slightly higher Tuesday, ahead of Fed meeting,
European markets mixed,
Asia-Pacific markets fell across the Pacific.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Monday, indexes closed barely up as investors geared up for the Fed policy/rate meeting scheduled for later in the week as the Dow closed UP +6.06 points or +0.02%, the S&P closed UP +3.21 points or +0.07% while the Nasdaq closed UP +1.90 points or +0.01%.
“The Fed is not expected to raise rates this week, with traders pricing in a 99% probability that the central bank skips a hike, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, a gauge of pricing in fed funds futures. Traders are putting just a 29% chance of a hike in November as of early Tuesday.” <CNBC>
Economic Data Docket: building permits for August and housing starts due out before the bell as
Monday’s (9/15) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector stumbles lower. Food inflation, staples of life, rising gas prices, a possible government shutdown in less than 2 weeks, the UAW strike enters its 4th day, resumption of student loan payments begins pointing to slower economic growth which has destabilized sentiment while Q3 LPS (loss-per-share) earnings initiate in October – 10 sessions from today.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13125
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 5 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and last Tuesday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$1.57 after Friday’s -$0.75 after Thursday’s -$0.56 with a $0.00 aftermarket indication.
Negative Indications:
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and last Tuesday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.80 with a negative -$0.02 or -0.06% pre-open indication
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed Monday down -$2.94, Friday’s -$0.70, Thursday’s +$1.92, Wednesday’s -$1.01 and last Tuesday’s -$0.70 with a positive +$0.00 pre-open indication.
Positive indications:
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday and last Tuesday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Still maintaining under value, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down again – Monday at -$5.22 post Friday’s -$8.07, Thursday’s -$18.59, Wednesday’s flat as trading was stopped and Tuesday’s +$7.93 with a positive +$1.52 or +0.85% pre-open indication
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed down -$0.74 with a positive +$0.19 or +0.78% pre-open indication
The BOTTOM LINE: underlines the framework of share pricing actions...
We are about to face a prisoner’s dilemma presents a “situation where two parties – investors and algorithms/electronic trading, separated and unable to communicate, must each choose between cooperating with the other or not.”
I’d rather stick to “Occam’s Razor” which is “interpreted as requiring that the simplest explanation is preferable to one that is more complex.
A lot of words … yet: “Don't act like the sector is in an uptrend until the sector is actually in an uptrend.”
Last week:
· Yesterday, Monday closed negative with 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats
· Friday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
· Thursday closed positive with 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats
· Wednesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 24 decliners and 4 flats
· Tuesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 14 decliners and 3 flats
· Last Monday closed positive with 23 incliners, 12 decliners and 0 flat
Also, yesterday, the S&P 500 inching up 0.07%, the Nasdaq eked out a 0.01% gain, while the Dow edged up 0.02%.
Stock futures were slightly higher in overnight trading Monday for the start of the Fed’s two-day September policy meeting.
The cell and gene therapy closed down on Monday and Friday but was weak for the few that “ascended” while exhibiting shallow upsides.
The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical for the RegMed, cell and gene therapy sector which will establish whether market reaction to recent events is temporary and short-lived or there will be further fundamental correction.
Where and when is value creation as we slip further into September and the end of Q3 with LPS <loss-per-share> quarterly releases coming due? I believe a number of decliners need to be bought, a few sold into strength and a number of negative indications document a continued sell.
I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong. As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am not always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!
“I’ve been a few miles, and I’ve seen a few things”. “What I’m trying to do is just say, ‘Look, I don’t know everything, but I know some things—let me level with you. Based on my experience … this is what’s happening.”
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
