September 20, 2023 7:39am
For 2 p.m. Fed announcement, my “Bottom Line” expects some positive sector movement
Pre-open Indications: 3 Positive and 1 Negative Indications
It’s an honor to be considered the “canary in the (sectors) coal mine”! I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors in the perception of sector vulnerabilities and strengths – it’s more than opinion, the facts and truth need to be recognized!
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are UP +0.23% or (+79 points), S&P futures are UP +0.22% or (+10 points) and NASDAQ futures are UP +0.20% or (+30 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures gained on Wednesday morning ahead of the latest interest rate decision,
European markets were higher,
Asia-Pacific markets fell.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes dived on Tuesday after the Dow closed DOWN -106.57 points or -0.31%, the S&P closed DOWN -9.58 points or -0.22% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -32.05 points or -0.23%.
Economic Data Docket: Last week the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) increased to 7.31% from 7.27%. Applications to refinance a home loan jumped 13% last week compared with the previous week. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased 2% for the week and were 26% lower than the same week one year ago.
Tuesday’s (9/15) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector crumbles after Monday’s stumble. Before fed decision as the path of inflation and monetary policy evolves.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13127
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 6 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: INDICATIONS
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Negative Indications:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Agenus (AGEN) closed down -$0.01 with a negative -$0.03 or -2.42% pre-open indication
Positive indications:
Tuesday’s closing price, some Monday closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.65 after Monday’s -$0.80 with a positive +$0.51 or +1.48% pre-open indication
uniQure NV (QURE) closed up +$0.26 with a positive +$0.14 or +1.84 aftermarket indication.
Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed up +$0.15 with a positive +$0.06 or +0.29% pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: underlines the framework of share pricing actions...
Cell and gene therapy sector share pricing was moving <although it closed to the downside> in late afternoon … after two sessions of breaking bad.
The cell and gene therapy closed down on Tuesday, Monday and Friday but was weak for Thursday “ascension” while exhibiting shallow upsides.
This and some of last week: maybe not Wednesday but it’s coming …
· Tuesday closed negative with 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flats
· Monday closed negative with 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats
· Friday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
· Thursday closed positive with 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats
· Last Wednesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 24 decliners and 4 flats
Notice how the decliners are being reduced Friday, Monday through Tuesday … is “uncle algo” and his electronic trading dwarfs coming to visit?
What is the bet as … “Traders overwhelmingly believe the Fed won't hike rates, pricing in a 99% chance of a pause in its tightening campaign, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The focus is instead on what happens in the future: Whether it will return to raising borrowing costs this year, and when a rate cut could be on the cards.”
The remainder of the month’s trading sessions will be critical for the RegMed, cell and gene therapy sector which will establish whether market reaction to recent events is temporary and short-lived or there will be further fundamental correction.
Where and when is value creation as we slip further into September and the end of Q3 with LPS <loss-per-share> quarterly releases coming due? I believe a number of decliners need to be bought, a few sold into strength and a number of negative indications document a continued sell.
I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong. As the leading voice of cell and gene therapy investors; I am not always a doom and gloom analyst/journalist but a man who has been “there” (BUY, SELL, VC and operating roles) with the gray hair and a readership following with real numbers to prove it!
“I’ve been a few miles, and I’ve seen a few things”. “What I’m trying to do is just say, ‘Look, I don’t know everything, but I know some things—let me level with you. Based on my experience … this is what’s happening.”
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
