September 25, 2023 7:40am
Is it time to step-up newest bottom buys; after more than a few downsides in cell and gene therapy sector, I believe some are actionable?
Pre-open Indications: 3 Positive and 4 Negative Indication
My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize and what did happen at the close of the session
Subscription is coming, it’s not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!
8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are DOWN -0.06% or (-22 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.10% or (-4 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.10% or (-15 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures slightly lower and fluctuating on Monday,
European markets were lower,
Asia-Pacific markets are mixed.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes retreated Friday, as the Dow closed DOWN -106.58 points or -0.31%, the S&P closed DOWN -9.94 points or -0.23% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -12.18 points or -0.09%.
For the week dipped the Dow -1.9%, the S&P 500 -2.9% and the Nasdaq -3.6%.
For the month so far, the Dow is off -2.2%, the S&P -4.2% and the Nasdaq -5.9%.
Economic Data Docket: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, September (-13 expected as compared to -17.2 previously)
Last Friday’s (9/22) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “no joy. No rescue for the oversold as new bottoms are accumulating before upcoming earnings releases down trends and “uncle algo” and his electronic trading dwarfs never came to visit.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13133
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 9 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Negative Indications:
Friday’s closing price, some Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Regenxbio (RGNX) closed down -$0.51, Thursday’s +$0.05, Wednesday’s -$0.33, Tuesday’s +$0.08 and Monday’s +$0.03 with a negative -$0.22 or -1.29% aftermarket indication
Maintaining, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) closed down -$0.04 after Thursday’s -$0.30, Wednesday’s -$0.55, Tuesday’s +$0.15 and Monday’s -$0.72 with a negative -$0.06 or -0.31% pre-open indication
Maintaining, Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed down -0.18 after Thursday’s +$0.43 with a negative -$0.73 or -2% aftermarket indication.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed up +$0.23 on Friday with a negative -$0.21 or -0.49% aftermarket indication.
Positive indications:
Friday’s closing price, some Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down -$2.30 and Thursday’s -$1.67 with a positive +$0.40 or +0.23% aftermarket indication.
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$0.15 with a positive +$0.13 or +1.66% aftermarket indication.
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.36 after Thursday’s -$0.36 with a positive +0.06 or +0.50% aftermarket indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: underlines the framework of share pricing actions...
· Market seasonality is playing out almost perfectly as Wall Street feels discomfort.
· Warren Buffett thinks interest rates exert a huge gravitational pull-on asset value <CNBC>
A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined, evaluated and reported. Issues.,.
· After a hawkish outlook from the Fed sent stocks tumbling last week, the negativity is expected to continue this week.
· Resumption of student loan payments,
· Higher long-term rates, and
· Recent oil price shocks.
· The budget “process” is also in trouble to keep the U.S. government funded for the remainder of the fiscal year.
· The week ahead will also bring center stage a government shutdown looms on October 1.
Another week of influencing economic data on …
· Tuesday - New home sales, August (699,000 annualized rate expected, 714,000 previously); New home sales, month-over-month, August (-2.2% expected, +4.4% previously); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, September (105.5 expected, 106.1 previously); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, 20-City Composite home price index, month-over-month, July (+0.65% expected, +0.92% previously); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite home price index, year-over-year, July (+0.03% expected, -1.17% previously)
· Wednesday - MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending September 22 (+5.4% prior); Durable goods, August (-0.5% expected, -5.2% previously)
· Thursday – Q2 GDP, third estimate (+2.2% annualized rate expected, +2.1% previously); Second quarter personal consumption, third estimate (+1.7% expected, 1.7% prior); Initial jobless claims, week ended September 24 (215,000 expected, 201,000 previously); Pending home sales month-over-month, August (-1.0% expected, 0.9% previously)
· Friday - Wholesale inventories month-over-month, August (-0.2% expected, -0.2% previously); Retail inventories month-over-month, August (+0.5% expected, +0.3% previously) Personal income, month-over-month, August (+0.4% expected, +0.2% previously); Personal spending, month-over-month, August (+0.4% expected, +0.8% previously); PCE inflation, month-over-month, August (+0.5% expected,+ 0.2% previously); PCE inflation, year-over-year, August (+3.4% expected, +3.2% previously); "Core" PCE, month-over-month, August (+0.2% expected, +0.2% previously); "Core" PCE, year-over-year, August (+3.9% expected; +4.2% previously); University of Michigan consumer sentiment, August, final reading (67.7 expected, 67.7 previously) <Yahoo!finance>
The cell and gene therapy closed down yet again Friday after Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday and last Friday’s weakness. This week may not enable an upswing for Monday but it’s coming as …
· Last Friday closed negative with 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flats
· Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
· Wednesday closed negative with 3 incliners, 31 decliners and 1 flat
· Tuesday closed negative with 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flats
· Monday closed negative with 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats
· The previous Friday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
The remainder of the month’s trading sessions - <1 week remains> - will be critical for the RegMed, cell and gene therapy sector which will establish whether market reaction to recent events is temporary and short-lived or there will be further fundamental correction.
Where and when is value creation as we slip further into September and the end of Q3 with LPS <loss-per-share> quarterly releases coming due?
I believe a number of decliners need to be bought, a few sold into strength and a number of negative indications document a continued sell.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but, I am mostly EARLY!
There's ALSO nothing wrong with standing pat in the short run, holding on to sizable existing exposure.
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
