September 26, 2023 7:35am
The cell and gene therapy sector lately seems to get worse before it gets better - even in the worst of circumstances there is hope although Monday’s aftermarket was very weak
News: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE -$0.73 pre-open) announced the approval of Evkeeza® (evinacumab) in Canada. Evkeeza® was approved by Health Canada as an adjunct to diet and other low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering therapies for the treatment of adult and pediatric patients aged 5 years and old. Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) announced positive topline results for the P3 Balance study of olezarsen in people with familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS). The trial met its primary efficacy endpoint with a statistically significant reduction in triglyceride (TG) levels
Pre-open Indications: 3 Positive and 3 Negative Indications
My version of the morning’s “indications” is about what you need to know; it’s what could happen or materialize and what did happen at the close of the session
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what will happen behind the headlines today, not tomorrow or yesterday
Dow futures are DOWN -0.36% or (-122 points), S&P futures are DOWN -0.42% or (-18 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.46% or (-69 points) early in the pre-open – so far
Stock futures were lower Tuesday,
European markets were lower,
Asia-Pacific markets are mixed.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes “popped” in the last minutes in another struggling and weakened session as the Dow closed UP +43.04 points or +0.13%, the S&P closed UP +17.38 points or +0.40% while the Nasdaq closed UP +59.51 points or +0.45%.
A lot has to do with the Fed and the focus on what the Fed is going to do …
U.S. economic risks that fed chair Powell noted in a press conference last week included the autoworkers' strike, a possible federal government shutdown, resumption of student loan repayments, higher energy prices and higher long-term borrowing costs. <Reuters>
As of today’s session, the Nasdaq was down 5.4%, while the S&P 500 dived -3.8% and the Dow -2.1% in September.
Economic Data Docket: August’s final building permits report before the bell, as well as new home sales data for last month along with the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report for September.
Monday’s (9/25) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “Humpty Dumpty had a great fall. Not an egg but, a cannon that fired and fell off a battlement; “all the Kings horses and all the Kings men … Couldn’t put Humpty together again.” The actual meaning to this rhyme to me a crushing of indexes and to “wreak untold destruction’ upon the sector.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13135
Ebb and flow:
Q3: September – 1 holiday, 6 positive and 10 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Negative Indications:
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Maintaining from Friday, Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$0.24 after Friday’s -0.18 and Thursday’s +$0.43 with a negative -$0.73 or -1.99% aftermarket indication.
Maintaining, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) closed down Monday -$0.78 after Friday’s-$2.30 and Thursday’s -$1.67 with a negative -$0.74 or -0.43% aftermarket indication.
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.67 with a negative -$0.57 or -4.99% pre-open indication.
Positive indications:
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Prime Medicine (PRME) closed down -$0.51 with a positive +$0.52 or +4.92% aftermarket indication.
Editas Medicine (EDIT) closed down -$0.74 with a positive +$0.05 or +0.77% pre-open indication
Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) closed down -$0.05 after Friday’s +$0.23 with a negative -$0.71 or -1.66% aftermarket indication; also with pre-open news as in title.
The BOTTOM LINE: underlines the framework of share pricing actions...
With the stock market now in the grip of a correction, investors need to concentrate on reducing market exposure to the 0%-20% range while building up a robust watchlist of strong stocks that could emerge as leaders when the next uptrend kicks off.
- One way to do this is by using the relative strength line. The RS line measures a stock's price performance vs. the S&P 500. Keep an eye on stock charts in which the line is trending upward, which means the stock is outperforming the S&P. <IBD>
A daily report may say little or a lot and its final judgement may be inconclusive; yet it serves as insurance that all indications are being examined, evaluated and reported. Issues.,.
· Equities tumbled Monday after last week, the negativity is expected to continue this week.
· Resumption of student loan payments,
· Higher long-term rates, and
· Recent oil price shocks.
· The budget “process” is also in trouble to keep the U.S. government funded for the remainder of the fiscal year.
· The week ahead will also bring center stage a government shutdown looms on October 1.
Another session of influencing economic data on …
· Tuesday - New home sales, August (699,000 annualized rate expected, 714,000 previously); New home sales, month-over-month, August (-2.2% expected, +4.4% previously); Conference Board Consumer Confidence, September (105.5 expected, 106.1 previously); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, 20-City Composite home price index, month-over-month, July (+0.65% expected, +0.92% previously); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite home price index, year-over-year, July (+0.03% expected, -1.17% previously)
The cell and gene therapy closed down yet again Monday, Friday after Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday and last Friday’s weakness. This week may not enable an upswing for Monday but it’s coming as …
· Monday closed negative of 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats
· Last Friday closed negative with 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flats
· Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
· Wednesday closed negative with 3 incliners, 31 decliners and 1 flat
· Tuesday closed negative with 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flats
· Monday closed negative with 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats
· The previous Friday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
The remainder of the month’s trading sessions - <1 week remains> - will be critical for the RegMed, cell and gene therapy sector which will establish whether market reaction to recent events is temporary and short-lived or there will be further fundamental correction.
Where and when is value creation as we slip to the end of September and the end of Q3 with LPS <loss-per-share> quarterly releases coming due?
Coming attraction:
Though October is known as the “jinx month” because of the 1929 and 1987 crashes, it also has a reputation as a “bear killer,” according to the “Stock Trader’s Almanac.”
“While October tends to be among the more volatile months of the year, it’s also the month where we usually see great buying opportunities, because it’s just before November and December, which are seasonally strong periods of the year for the markets.” <Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth>
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
