September 28, 2023 4:49pm

Reiterating, one (1) to three (3) sessions – 1 barely positive and 2nd positive with a Thursday steep decline.

Pre-open Indications: 6 Hit and 2 Miss

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The Dow closed UP +116.07 points or +0.35%, the S&P closed UP +25.19 points or +0.59% while the Nasdaq closed UP +108.43 points or +0.83%

 

Investors crave share pricing explanations because they give us an illusion of portfolio control. I know what a company is supposed to look like, be like, and smell like to succeed; bottom line, investors own the right to exit or enter sector’s share pricing.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes rose on Thursday heading into month’s end, as investors kept a close eye on the UAW strike, the potential of a government shutdown and spending bill, impeachment inquiry and then the volatile Treasury market.

  • Each of the looming events are seen dimming the outlook for the rest of 2023.
  • Friday marks the end of what has been a tough trading month and quarter.

The Dow is poised to end more than 3% lower on the month and more than 2% lower in the quarter. The S&P 500 is slated to finish the month down 5% and the quarter off by about 4%. The Nasdaq is on pace to finish the month -5% and quarter losing more than -5%.

Economic Data Docket: US Q2 GDP growth unrevised at 2.1% - data showed the U.S. economy maintained a fairly solid pace of growth in Q2; and weekly jobless claims edge higher - initial jobless claims rose slightly last week - signaling tight labor market conditions along with a higher-than-expected fall in contracts to buy existing homes in August.

  • The volume of pending home sales fell more than economists expected in August, underscoring the pressure faced by potential buyers in the face of higher interest rates. Pending home sales dropped 7.1% from July to August, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Economists surveyed by anticipated a relatively modest slide of 1% month over month. Mortgage rates have been rising above 7% since August.

 

52-week low:

  • Intellia Therapeutics NTLA) at $31.18
  • Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) at $0.59
  • uniQure NV (QURE) at $6.73
  • Prime Medicine (PRMC) at $9.29

 

Thursday (9/28) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “headwinds to September’s end. Tread lightly, de-risking as Friday’s Q3 close with upcoming LPS (loss-per-share) earnings soon to disappear upsides.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13140

 

Pre-Open indications: 6 Hit < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.83), Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.186), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.87), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.59), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.24), Sell into Strength:  BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.00), and 2 Miss < Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.74), Prime Medicine (PRME -$0.04)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 29 down and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day with 11 up/ 24 down and 0 flat, ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats

 

Ebb and flow:

Q3: September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 11 negative closes

·         August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes

·          July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.22% and the XBI was down -0.30%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Thursday was down -0.83 point or -4.56% at 17.39

 

Closing Down (10 of 25):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY -$2.30 after Wednesday’s +$1.81 after Tuesday’s +$4.28 after Monday’s -$0.78),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE -$1.81 after Wednesday’s -$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$0.74 after Monday’s +$0.24),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$1.53 after Wednesday’s +$1.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.25 after Monday’s +$0.37)
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.85 after Wednesday’s +$0.85 after Tuesday’s +$3.62),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.69 after Wednesday’s +$0.47 after Tuesday’s +$1.58 after Monday’s -$0.30),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.38 after Wednesday’s -$0.26),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM -$0.37 after Wednesday’s +$0.66, Tuesday’s +$0.59 after Monday’s -$0.75),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT -$0.21),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.19 after Wednesday’s -$0.03),
  • Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.187 after Tuesday’s -$0.03 and Monday’s -$0.38),

FLATS (2)

  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS $0.00 after Wednesday’s +$0.33, Tuesday’s +$0.42 and Monday’s +$0.15),
  • Generation Bio (GBIO)

Closing Up (8 of 8):

  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.85 after Wednesday’s $0.00 after Tuesday’s +$0.60),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.31 after Wednesday’s -$0.36, Tuesday’s +$1.57 and Monday’s -$0.67),
  • Fate Therapeutics (FATE +$0.07),
  • Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU +$0.03 after Wednesday’s -$0.22 and Tuesday’s -$0.05),
  • Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.02 after Wednesday’s +$0.43 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.23),
  • AxoGen (AXGN +$0.01 after Wednesday’s +$0.32 after Tuesday’s -$0.31 and Monday’s +$0.14),
  • Mesoblast (MESO +$0.02 after Wednesday’s +$0.02)
  • Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.01 after Wednesday’s -$0.01 and Wednesday’s -$0.04),

 

Q3/23 – September

  • Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 13 decliners and 4 flats
  • Tuesday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

Key word of the state of uncertainty in “our” universe of cell and gene therapy … “which makes It difficult to predict where sector is headed in the short run.”

  • With just few days away from a shutdown resolution, investors awaited the Democratic-controlled Senate's procedural vote on a bipartisan short term spending measure.
  • “With federal government spending at almost 7% of U.S. GDP, a shutdown will slow down GDP growth." <Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank>

 

Contributing to today’s (9/27) updraft: sector is OVERSOLD …

  • Traders, algorithms and electronic trading skimming the upside
  • As we wait developments on a U.S. funding bill and today’s inflation data to gauge the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
  • Markets betting on more hikes to come, including a 35% chance of a December increase, longer-term Treasury yields are testing new cycle highs, with benchmark 10-year notes hitting 4.628% in mid-day New York trading. <The Street>
  • The market's key volatility gauge, the CBOE's VIX index, is also trending north, and was last marked 0.4% lower at a four-month peak of 18.88 points.
  • Bond market pricing
  • Deepening inflation concerns, U.S. oil futures jumped to a more than one-year high.

 

The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing dived on Thursday, after Wednesday’s flip to the upside (after diving mid-day) after Tuesday positive close, Monday dive, last Friday and the previous Thursday’s negativity.

 

It’s still "about the economy … STUPID" as investors congest a raft of economic reports pointing to … core inflation data and a spending consumer.

Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Coming events:

  • October, known as a “jinx month" for stocks, is days away and investors SHOULD be bracing themselves.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (PBMC), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)

Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) -2x and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) 

Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

Monday: CRISPR therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Graphite Bio (GRPH)

The worst three (3) in the session:

Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) -2x and Vericel (VCEL)

Wednesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), AxoGen (AXGN) and Prime Medicine (PRME)

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 8x, Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) – 2x and Editas Medicine (EDIT)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.