September 29, 2023 5:02pm

Of September and Q3, what a jerky and brutal ride it has been as investors face sharp September losses

Pre-open Indications: 5 Hit and 4 Miss

Subscription is coming, it is not conscription but, an offer to join our collective of like-minded investors!  Join me … in the NO spin zone.

Never leave an investor uninformed!

The week in review with a monthly closings recap

The Dow closed DOWN -158.84 points or -0.47%, the S&P closed DOWN -11.65 points or -0.27% while the Nasdaq closed UP +18.05 points or +0.14%

 

Investors crave share pricing explanations because they give us an illusion of portfolio control. I know what a company is supposed to look like, be like, and smell like to succeed; bottom line, investors own the right to exit or enter sector’s share pricing.

 

Henry’omics:

We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …

Indexes floated mixed with Dow and S&P down empowered by concerns about the potential of a government shutdown weighted on the market.

This month the Dow is on track for a -3.5% decline and a Q3 decline -2.7%. The S&P 500 is set to finish the month down -4.9% and the quarter lower by -3.4% while the Nasdaq is off 5.8% in September, and down 3.6% for Q3.

Economic Data Docket: core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in August and 3.9% annually. Economists expected that the core PCE would advance 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.9% year over year.

 

52-week low:

  • Regenxbio (RGNX) at $16.44
  • Intellia Therapeutics NTLA) at $31.18
  • uniQure NV (QURE) at $6.71

 

Friday (9/29) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “Surviving and ending September and Q3, portfolio bleeding was acute. Seek RMi attention if you are unsure or have had a traumatic reaction.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13142

 

Pre-Open indications: 5 Hit < Homology Medicine (FIXX +$0.02), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.07), Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.88), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.88), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$0.85)> and 4 Miss < Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.90), Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.14), CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.35), Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.14)>

 

RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …

  • Friday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 18 up/ 12 down and 2 flats, stayed positive before the mid-day with 17 up/ 14 down and 4 flats, ending with a barely negative close of 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats
  • Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 5 up/ 29 down and 1 flat, stayed negative at the mid-day with 11 up/ 24 down and 0 flat, ending with a negative close of 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats
  • Wednesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 24 up/ 7 down and 4 flats, flipped negative at the mid-day with 13 up/ 20 down and 2 flats, ending with a negative close of 18 incliners, 13 decliners and 4 flats
  • Tuesday’s advance/decline line opened positive at 27 up/ 7 down and 1 flat, stayed positive at the mid-day with 22 up/ 12 down and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat
  • Monday’s advance/decline line opened negative at 4 up/ 29 down and 2 flats, stayed negative with 13 up/ 22 down and 0 flat at the mid-day, ending with a negative close of 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats

 

Ebb and flow:

Q3: September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes

·         August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes

·          July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close

 

Key Metrics:

The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:

  • Friday, the IBB was down -0.45% and the XBI was down -1.02%
  • Thursday, the IBB was down -0.22% and the XBI was down -0.30%
  • Wednesday, the IBB was up +0.47% and the XBI was up +1.07%
  • Tuesday, the IBB was down -% and the XBI was down -%
  • Monday, the IBB was down -0.24% and the XBI was down -1.47%

The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:

  • Friday was up +0.29 point or +1.67% at 17.65
  • Thursday was down -0.83 point or -4.56% at 17.39
  • Wednesday was down -0.42 point or -2.22% at 18.52
  • Tuesday was up +2.43 points or +14.38% at 19.33
  • Monday was down -0.14 point or -0.81% at 17.06

 

Closing Down (10 of 17):

  • Regenxbio (RGNX -$1.22 after Thursday’s +$0.02, Wednesday’s +$0.43 after Tuesday’s +$0.29 and Monday’s -$0.23),
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -$0.90 after Thursday’s -$0.85 after Wednesday’s +$0.85 after Tuesday’s +$3.62),
  • Blueprint Medicine (BPMC -$0.85 after Thursday’s +$0.85, Wednesday’s $0.00 after Tuesday’s +$0.60),
  • Vericel (VCEL -$0.57),
  • CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP -$0.35 after Thursday’s -$1.53, Wednesday’s +$1.02 after Tuesday’s +$0.25 after Monday’s +$0.37),
  • MiMedx (MDXG -$0.29 after Thursday’s, -$0.19 and Wednesday’s -$0.03),
  • BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.24 after Thursday’s $0.00, Wednesday’s +$0.33, Tuesday’s +$0.42 and Monday’s +$0.15),
  • Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA -$0.14 after Thursday’s -$0.38, or Wednesday’s -$0.26),
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE -$0.14 after Thursday’s -$0.69, Wednesday’s +$0.47, Tuesday’s +$1.58 and Monday’s -$0.30),
  • Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN -$0.11)

Flats (2)

  • Cellectis SA (CLLS)
  • Precigen (PGEN)

Closing Up (10 of 16):

  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$3.07 after Thursday’s -$2.30, Wednesday’s +$1.81 after Tuesday’s +$4.28 after Monday’s -$0.78),
  • Editas Medicine (EDIT +$0.88 after Thursday’s -$0.21),
  • Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.48 after Thursday’s -$1.81, Wednesday’s -$0.50 after Tuesday’s +$0.74 after Monday’s +$0.24),
  • Verve Therapeutics (VERV +$0.30 after Thursday’s +$0.31, Wednesday’s -$0.36, Tuesday’s +$1.57 and Monday’s -$0.67),
  • Graphite Bio (GRBU +$0.11),
  • Caribou Therapeutics (CRBU +$0.05 after Thursday’s +$0.03, Wednesday’s -$0.22 and Tuesday’s -$0.05),
  • Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.04),
  • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR +$0.03),
  • Solid Biosciences (SLDB +$0.03),
  • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.03 after Thursday’s -$0.37, Wednesday’s +$0.66, Tuesday’s +$0.59 and Monday’s -$0.75),

 

Q3/23 – September

Friday closed negative with 16 incliners, 17 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 13 decliners and 4 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 22 incliners, 12 decliners and 1 flat

Monday closed negative with 7 incliners, 26 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 9 incliners, 22 decliners and 4 flats

Thursday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 3 incliners, 31 decliners and 1 flat

Tuesday closed negative with 17 incliners, 18 decliners and 0 flat

Monday closed negative with 11 incliners, 22 decliners and 2 flats

Friday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats

Thursday closed positive with 18 incliners, 15 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed negative with 7 incliners, 24 decliners and 4 flats

Tuesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 14 decliners and 3 flats

(9/11) Monday closed positive with 23 incliners, 12 decliners and 0 flat

Friday closed positive with 18 incliners, 16 decliners and 1 flat

Thursday closed negative with 10 incliners, 23 decliners and 2 flats

Wednesday closed positive with 18 incliners, 12 decliners and 5 flats

Tuesday closed negative with 8 incliners, 25 decliners and 2 flats

(9/4) Monday was holiday

(9/1) Friday closed positive with 28 incliners, 6 decliners and 1 flat

 

The BOTTOM LINE: I try to keep it simple … and short!

A brutal September ended in September on a low note but it is over as GDP data confirmed a slowdown in consumption, a key metric to underlying price pressures.

  • Key word of the state of uncertainty in “our” universe of cell and gene therapy … “which makes It difficult to predict where sector is headed in the short run.”
  • Investors are bracing for a shutdown as Congress attempts to reach a deal with just a little over a day remaining.
  • Coming at a precarious time for the US economy and the stock market.
  • The UAW is expanding its strikes against Ford (F) and General Motors (GM). Stellantis (STLA) was spared due to progress being made in negotiations.

 

Friday marks the end of a trading week, month, and quarter; here’s where the three major indexes stand:

The Dow:

  • Week to date: down 1.3%
  • Month to date: down 3.5%
  • Quarter to date: down 2.6%

The S&P 500

  • Week to date: down 0.7%
  • Month to date: down 4.9%
  • Quarter to date: down 3.7%

The Nasdaq:

  • Week to date: up 0.6%
  • Month to date: down 5.8%
  • Quarter to date: down 4.1%

 

Contributing to today’s (9/29) updraft: sector flipped barely and still OVERSOLD …

  • Traders, algorithms and electronic trading skimming the upside
  • As we wait developments on a U.S. funding bill and today’s inflation data to gauge the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
  • Markets betting on more hikes to come, including a 35% chance of a December increase, longer-term Treasury yields are testing new cycle highs, with benchmark 10-year notes hitting 4.628% in mid-day New York trading. <The Street>
  • The market's key volatility gauge, the CBOE's VIX index, is also trending north, and was last marked 0.4% lower at a four-month peak of 18.88 points.
  • Bond market pricing
  • Deepening inflation concerns, U.S. oil futures jumped to a more than one-year high.

 

The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing dived on Friday, Thursday, after Wednesday’s flip to the upside (after diving mid-day) after Tuesday positive close, Monday dive, last Friday and the previous Thursday’s negativity.

 

It’s still about the economy … STUPID as investors congest a raft of economic reports pointing to … tamer core inflation data and a spending consumer.

  • Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”

 

Coming events:

  • October, known as a “jinx month" for stocks, is days away and investors SHOULD be bracing themselves.

 

The top three (3) performing in the session:

Friday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Editas Medicine (EDIT) and Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE)

Thursday: Blueprint Medicine (PBMC), Verve Therapeutics (VERV) and Fate Therapeutics (FATE)

Wednesday: Vericel (VCEL), Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) -2x and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) 

Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Sage Therapeutics (SAGE)

Monday: CRISPR therapeutics (CRSP), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Graphite Bio (GRPH)

The worst three (3) in the session:

Friday: Regenxbio (RGNX), Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) and Blueprint Medicine (PBMC)

Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) -2x and Vericel (VCEL)

Wednesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE), Prime Medicine (PRME) and Verve Therapeutics (VERV)

Tuesday: Vericel (VCEL), AxoGen (AXGN) and Prime Medicine (PRME)

Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 8x, Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) – 2x and Editas Medicine (EDIT)

 

Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors.  All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.

Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.

I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.