October 5, 2023 4:42pm
As equity’s volatility is one tactical signal for stocks. Concerns over bond yields, key jobs data and upcoming level of LPS (loss-per-share) earnings season’s “numbers” could be a forward factor to Friday and the next weeks
Pre-open Indications: 3 Hits and 1 Miss
News: Orchard Therapeutics (ORTX +$7.87 or +97.40% to $15.95) was acquired by Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. (TSE: 4151), a Japanese specialty pharmaceutical for $16.00 per American Depositary Share (ADS) in cash (approximately $387.4 million). ORTX’s gene therapy harnesses a patient’s own genetically modified hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs).
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The Dow closed DOWN -9.98 points or -0.03%, the S&P closed DOWN -5.56 points or -0.13% while the Nasdaq closed DOWN -16.18 points or -0.12%
What’s SAFE … “No one company is immune in the sector and this market of rolling upsides and downdrafts? Welcome to my world of defining the “grey’ in our universe!”
Investors are going to need to prepare for another earnings' reporting LPS (loss-per-share) cycle to confirm whether or not any bottoms are even close to happening.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes dived Thursday as investors grew cautious ahead of Friday’s jobs data that could determine the next move for interest rates.
The week to date, the Dow is down -1.1%, the S&P 500 is lower -0.5% for the week, while the Nasdaq is up +0.1%.
Economic Data Docket: Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 207,000 for the week ended Sept. 30, below the estimate for 210,000. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, were little changed at 1.664 million, below the 1.68 million estimates.
52-week low:
- Fate Therapeutic (FATE) at $1.70
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) at $0.514
Thursday (10/5) … RegMed Investors’ (RMi) Opening Bell: “What went up with ceremony, went down with disdain follows with a maybe opposite effect. Lately, good news seems to be bad news and conversely 'bad news is good news; however, reflecting on normal times, no one really questions whether no news is better or actually good.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13150
Pre-Open indications: 3 Hit < Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$9.54), Prime Medicine (PRME +$0.19), uniQure NV (QURE +$0.70)> and 1 Miss < Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA +$1.57)>
RegMed/Stem/Cell and Gene Therapy’s 35 covered equities’ Advance/Decline (A/D) lines: what happened – differences …
- Thursday’s advance/decline line opened negative with 14 up, 17 down and 4 flats, flipped positive at the mid-day with 20 up/ 14 down and 1 flat, ending with a positive close of 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flats
Ebb and flow:
Q4: October – 2 negative and 2 positive closes
· Q3: September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Key Metrics:
The iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology (IBB) and the SPDR S&P ETF (XBI) indicators:
- Thursday, the IBB was up +1.33% and the XBI was up +3.28%
The CBOE Volatility Index (VVIX: INDEX) tracked:
- Thursday was down -0.20 point or -1.08% at 18.38
Closing Down (9 of 9):
- BioLife Solutions (BLFS -$0.33),
- AxoGen (AXGN -$0.08),
- Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM -$0.04 after Wednesday’s +$0.01 and Tuesday’s -$0.07),
- Graphite BIO (GRPH -$0.04),
- Cellectis SA (CLLS -$0.03),
- Solid Biosciences (SLDB -$0.03),
- Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO -$0.0238),
- Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics (BCLI -$0.009 after Wednesday’s +$0.02 and Tuesday’s -$0.0297),
- Bellicum Pharmaceuticals (BLCM -$0.0066),
Flat (2):
- Fate Therapeutics (FATE)
- Compass therapeutics (CMPX)
Closing Up (10 of 24):
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY +$9.54 after Wednesday’s -$3.74, Tuesday’s -$6.05 and Monday’s +$1.86),
- Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS +$3.18 after Wednesday’s +$0.28, Tuesday’s -$0.04 after Monday’s -$1.93),
- Blueprint Medicine (BPMC +$3.11 after Wednesday’s -$2.29, Tuesday’s -$0.33 after Monday’s -$1.36),
- Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA+$1.57 after Wednesday’s -$0.74, Tuesday’s +$0.27 and Monday’s -$2.21),
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP +$1.38 after Wednesday’s -$1.32, Tuesday’s +$0.53 and Monday’s -$2.98),
- Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE +$0.73 after Wednesday’s -$1.22, Tuesday’s +$0.66 and Monday’s -$0.85),
- Beam Therapeutics (BEAM +$0.72 after Wednesday’s -$0.85, Tuesday’s +$ and Monday’s -$2.55),
- uniQure NV (QURE +$0.70),
- Regenxbio (RGNX +$0.67 after Wednesday’s -$1.34 and Tuesday’s +$0.43),
- Sage Therapeutics (SAGE +$0.47 after Wednesday’s -$0.41, Tuesday’s +$0.32 and Monday’s -$0.82),
Q4/23 – October
- Thursday closed positive with 24 incliners, 9 decliners and 2 flats
The BOTTOM LINE: I get to the past “heart of darkness” in “our” cell and gene therapy universe, while I try to keep it unpretentious … and short!
Contributing to today’s (10/5): some positive new and data
Orchard Therapeutics (ORTX) was acquired by Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. (Kyowa Kirin, TSE: 4151), a Japan-based global specialty pharmaceutical company for $16.00 per American Depositary Share (ADS) in cash (approximately $387.4 million, or ¥57.3 billion), under which Orchard shareholders will hold an additional contingent value right (CVR) of $1.00 per ADS. An additional $1.00 CVR will be paid for a total of $17.00 per ADS, or approximately $477.6 million (¥70.7 billion) if the conditions are met.
- Weaker-than-expected ADP private-sector hiring data provided another sign the labor market is cooling. That could prompt the Fed to think twice about raising borrowing costs again, lifting some pressure on markets.
- Seasonal weakness is “pretty normal” for the market in September and October,
- A pullback in bond yields' blistering rally has brought some relief and the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) was slightly lower after losing hold of 16-year highs the previous session.
- And last but not least – the political polarization of the government and its squabbles
When portfolios are still unopened on the mail table, we lose any advantage; although, today’s payroll data from ADP signaled to investors that the labor market is beginning to loosen
- Pessimism won't be going away anytime soon and that is probably why cell and gene therapy sector equities are selling off today
- The market's key volatility gauge, the CBOE's VIX index, was also on the back foot, slipping 0.3% in early trading to around 18.53 points, down from the multi-month high of 19.95 points it reached earlier this week.
- Weekly initial jobless claims UNDERSHOT expectations
- The market continues to be dragged around by interest rates …
- Uncertainty has pervaded the first two sessions of October … a market that needs validation which will NOT be endorsed by cell and gene therapy sector sentiment or upcoming earnings.
- While sentiment is definitely slipping as exits appear in the fourth (4th) session of the new month and Q.
The cell and gene therapy sector equities share pricing “ascended” on Thursday after pooping the bed on Wednesday after rising on Tuesday following negative closes on Monday, Friday, the previous Thursday’s.
- Stocks bounced back, while few keep falling – nature of the sector.
It’s still about the economy … STUPID as investors congest a raft of economic reports pointing to … tamer core inflation data and a spending consumer.
- Right up front, “I also hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and truth is its product; I can always be WRONG but … I am mostly EARLY!”
The top three (3) performing in the session:
Thursday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) -2x
Wednesday: Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS), Vericel (VCEL) and Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)
Tuesday: Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) and Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP),
Monday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), MiMedx (MDXG)
The worst three (3) in the session:
Thursday: BioLife Solutions (BLFS), AxoGen (AXGN) and Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM)
Wednesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) – 2x, Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) -2x and REGENXBIO (RGNX)
Tuesday: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY), Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) and Harvard Apparatus GN (HRGN)
Monday: CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) and Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA)
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. Whether information or intelligence is good, bad, or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Henry McCusker, the editor, and publisher of RegMed Investors does not hold or have positions in securities referred to in this publication. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities.
I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
