October 10, 2023 7:49am
The sector is being driven by the same theme - until we get some optimism, the path of least resistance is lower
Pre-Open indications: 2 Sell into Strength, 2 Positive and 2 Negative Indications
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8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize ... in a sanapshot of facts about to be.
Dow futures are +0.11% or (+36 points), S&P futures are UP +0.02% or (+1 points) and NASDAQ futures are DOWN -0.02% or (-3 point) early in the pre-open – so far
U.S. stock futures were mixed and fluctuating on Tuesday a.m.,
European stock markets were higher,
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed.
Henry’omics:
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes staged a comeback Monday as investors tried to shake off pressures driven by the deadly Israel-Hamas conflict as the Dow closed higher by 0.59%, or 197.07 points, to close at 33,604.65, the S&P 500 gained 0.63% or 27.16 points, ending at 4,335.66 while the Nasdaq added 0.39% or 52.90 points, landing at 13,484.24.
Economic Data Docket: The NFIB Small Business Survey data from September and August’s wholesale inventories numbers
Monday’s (10/9) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “sector interruptus. The rising geopolitical tension/risks in Israel caused by the Hamas invasion/massacres had cell and gene therapy sector consequences, potential energy markets surges with nominal markets for now impact so far … while bond market was closed.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13155
Ebb and flow:
Q4: October – 2 positive and 4 negative closes
Q3:
· September – 1 holiday, 8 positive and 12 negative closes
· August – 9 positive and 14 negative closes
· July - 1 holiday, 12 positive and 8 negative close
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context:
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Sell into Strength:
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Blueprint Medicine (BPMC) closed up +$0.98 after Friday’s +$0.16, Thursday’s +$3.11, Wednesday’s -$2.29, Tuesday’s -$0.33 and last Monday’s -$1.36 with a positive +$0.01 or +0.02% aftermarket indication.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (RARE) closed up +$0.45 after Friday’s +$0.26, Thursday’s +$0.73, Wednesday’s -$1.22 and last Tuesday’s +$0.66 post the following Monday’s -$0.85 with a positive +$0.32 or +0.90% aftermarket indication.
Negative Indications:
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) closed up +$0.12 after Friday’s +$0.21 with a negative -$0.15 or -1.99% aftermarket indication
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) closed up +$0.49 after Friday’s -$0.83, Thursday’s +$0.72, Wednesday’s -$0.85 and last Monday’s -$2.55 with a negative -$0.44 or -2.01% pre-open indication.
Positive indications:
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday and last Monday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) closed down -$0.55 after Friday’s +$0.06, Thursday’s +$1.38, Wednesday’s -$1.32, Tuesday’s +$0.53 and last Monday’s -$2.98 with a positive +$0.05 or +0.12% pre-open indication,
uniQure NV (QURE) closed down -$0.34 after Friday’s +$0.23 and Thursday’s +$0.70 with a positive +$0.20 or +2.94% aftermarket indication
The BOTTOM LINE: I think Aristotle may have been the first to crystallize the fallacies (in writing at least) of many situations that we are trying to deal with. Ad Verecundiam (Appeal to Authority) is certainly one fallacy, Ad Metum (Appeal to Fear) is the answer to the argument!
- After October’s first week of 2 positive and 4 negative close in the new month.
- Remember, the closer we get to earnings releases <LPS or loss per share sweepstakes> the leaner gains or expressive losses are going to be!
People are always asking me, what’s the most difficult job you’ve ever done. I always say it’s the job I’m doing at the moment as there are days that really touch a nerve!
Weekly Economic Data Calendar –Tuesday Economic Data:
- NFIB Small Business Optimism, September (91.3 expected, 91.3 previously); Whole inventories month-over-month, August final (-0.1% expected, -0.1%. previously)
What’s behind the numbers:
- An upbeat sentiment,
- A fall in bond yields,
- Attacks by Hamas on Israel over the weekend fueled an initial selloff on Monday,
- Geopolitical risks and stoking worries of a new oil shock,
- Dovish remarks from officials at the Fed,
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
- I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong; if you want to be liked, don’t be an analyst/journalist.
- Timing is everything, “I learned very early (as a military officer), if you were 5 minutes early for a meeting, you were 10 minutes late – follow my lead by being EARLY in portfolio deliberations.”
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.
