October 24, 2023 7:40am
Instead of harping on NOT buying the right names at the right time or NOT waiting long enough to take profit, I suggest dropping the "shoulda, coulda, wouldas" then think about where your portfolio could be appreciating by buying “some” bottoms!
Pre-Open Indications: 4 Positive
Never leave an investor uninformed!
8:00 a.m. edition
Remember that overnight and pre-open actions in futures don't necessarily translate into actual trading in the coming day’s session. My interpretation of the morning’s numbers is written to be informative; it’s built on what could happen or materialize
If I have learned one thing as a former research analyst in a closed end -venture and public equity funds, multiple operating roles, x-military officer and x-FBI, an adjunct (MBA) business school professor now a journalist; my life and your portfolio are largely tied to objectivity within knowledge of the biotech/cell/gene therapy sector universe’s patterns, price movements and questioning pricing targets.
The pre-open Dow futures are UP +0.45% or (+148 points), the S&P is UP +0.60% or (+25 points) as the Nasdaq is UP +0.72% or (+105 points)
Stock futures rose Tuesday, October 24, 2023
European markets were mixed,
Asia-Pacific markets rebounded and erased earlier losses.
We need to more than consider the economic environment - rising rates and inflation to comprehend the micro re “our” universe of cell and gene therapy companies …
Indexes closed mixed with only the Nasdaq closing up with the Dow closing DOWN -190.87 points or -0.58%, the S&P closed DOWN -7.12 points or -0.17% while the Nasdaq closed UP +34.52 points or +0.27%.
Economic Data Docket: services and manufacturing sector data
Monday’s (10/21) RegMed Investors’ (RMi) closing bell: “continued sentiment difficulties with an extreme risk adverse investor psychology. A sector of slipping equities as equity markets head lower due to economic slowdown and geopolitical risks.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13177
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) reduces headcount … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13172
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) has priced its public offering at $30.00 per share of 8,33 M stock … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13168
RegMed Investors (RMi) Research Note: Q3/23 earnings reporting dates, net losses, cash positions and runway outcomes. LPS (loss-per-share) releases will present challenges to share pricing with outcomes included.” … https://www.regmedinvestors.com/articles/13166
Ebb and flow:
- Q4: October – 6 positive and 10 negative closes
Companies in my headlights – It’s your decision; I provide ideas and context: looking for lost SHEAP …
I post about “indication intelligence” devoting my time to collection and analysis of information to assist investors with insight into sector vulnerabilities and strengths. A dictionary definition of “indicate” refers to something less than a certainty; an indication could be a signal of being oversold or overbought, a recommendation, or grounds for inferring or a basis for believing.
Monday’s closing price, some Friday, Thursday, Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Friday, last Monday and the previous Wednesday’s closing “numbers” with aftermarket dollar ($) and cent ($0.00) value and percentage (%)
Agenus (AGEN) closed down -$0.0191 after Friday’s -$0.06. Maintaining a +$0.00 or +0.05% positive pre-open indication.
BioLife Solutions (BLFS) closed down -$0.44 after Friday’s -$0.99 due to CEO Mike Rice who is retiring after Thursday’s -$0.43, Wednesday’s -$0.77, Tuesday’s $0.00 and Monday’s +$0.34. Maintaining, a positive +$0.25 or +2.56% pre-open indication.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed down -$0.32 after Friday’s -$0.46 with a positive +$0.52 or +1.98% pre-open indication.
Verve Therapeutics (VERV) closed down -$0.36 after Thursday’s -$1.30, Wednesday’s -$0.58, Tuesday’s -$0.05 and Monday’s -$0.13. Maintaining, a positive +$0.03 or +0.33% pre-open indication.
The BOTTOM LINE: Stocks have lately been alternating between the horrific and the benign …
I’d be BUYING many bottoms as I monitor the pulse and focus of possible outcomes as an equity’s downside volatility is one tactical BUY signal for sectors equities.
- Cell and gene therapy sector equities that got “whacked” again on Monday (9 incliners/26 decliners and 0 flat)
- Friday (9 decliners/25 declines/1 flat)
- Thursday shellacking (5 decliners/26 declines/4 flats),
- Wednesday’s (5 incliners/30/0 flat),
- Tuesday’s positive close (17 incliners/16 decliners/2 flats)
- and the previous Monday’s positive close (21 incliners/14 decliners and 0 flat)
An appropriate quote, “We're in a period of sector rotation, and people are trying to figure out in this new environment - in a full reset of rates across the curve - what are the stocks that are going to continue to do well and what are the stocks that are going to suffer." <Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey>
Another, “headwinds have been mounting for investors. Geopolitical tensions are rising in the Middle East. Fears of recession are still proliferating through corporate America. There is uncertainty around leadership in Washington and what that could mean for another government shutdown. Bond yields are at 16-year highs, and oil prices have been resilient, too.” <Yahoo! finance>
Today’s relevancy from Monday’s session and last week’s perspective:
- The sector suffered heavy losses in the past week amid surging Treasury yields,
- The jump in yields has also challenged equity valuations, dragging most major indexes lower last week, while the VIX "fear index" of U.S. stock market volatility hit its highest since March.
- The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield briefly climbed back above the key 5% level before ticking down. It was last trading at about 4.85%.
- Treasury yields help dictate how much investors pay for everything from stocks to corporate bonds to cryptocurrencies. Higher yields also make it more expensive for nearly everyone to borrow money, which puts the brakes on economic growth and adds stress to the entire financial system. <Yahoo! finance>
Trade any ups, buy into some bottoms, build cash position; buying the lows so they can eventually be the overbought through unbridled speculation and then trade again.
- Another earnings release coming, Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) on 11/7 Tuesday
What the sector patterns and markets are telling me:
- Investors should pay close attention to sector equities with strong relative strength. But it's not a time to be buying. Instead, it's been a week to scale out of positions.
- Market breadth has been weak
- A weak aftermarket
- A sentiment factor driven by algorithms and electronic trading,
- Remember, the closer we get to earnings releases <LPS or loss per share sweepstakes> the leaner gains or expressive losses are going to be!
- The ongoing Israel-Hamas war has raised questions of a potential oil supply crunch and a resulting rise in fuel prices if the geopolitical instability spreads to neighboring oil producers in the region.
I hate to be so negative or contrarian but, this is a NO spin zone and facts are its product; I am more frequently right than consequentially wrong but, I am mostly EARLY!
Opinions expressed are those of the author and are subject to change, and not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, nor investment advice. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives.
Whether information or intelligence is good, bad or somewhere in between; I put into context what is relevant and useful for investors. All investments are subject to risks. Investors should consider investment objectives. Regulation Analyst Certification (Reg AC): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Henry McCusker, the editor and publisher of RegMed Investors could hold or have positions securities referred to in this publication and he will NOTIFY investors of holdings.